Sirebi are tipped to lift the match, with a 45% chance of victory, a 27% draw probability and a 27% chance for Politehnica UTM to win. The average goal tally sits at 2.8, but the most likely total is 2 goals, a 25% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.9% probability, reflecting both sides’ balanced recent form. Sirebi, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 2.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded, while Politehnica UTM on the road average 2.0 scored and 1.71 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Under 6.5 (97.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.7%), Under 5.5 (93.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.3%), Home +2 handicap (88.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.2%) and Under 4.5 (85.1%). With both teams having been unbeaten in recent fixtures, a tight contest is expected, but Sirebi’s home advantage and slightly higher scoring rate give them the edge.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sireți win
45.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM win
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sireți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.03
2.24
0.82
1.92
1.31
vs Stronger (13)
2.23
1.00
2.50
0.75
1.80
1.40
vs Similar (14)
2.21
1.29
2.43
1.14
2.00
1.43
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Politehnica UTM
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.60
2.06
1.19
1.57
2.07
vs Stronger (14)
1.29
2.21
1.38
1.88
1.17
2.67
vs Similar (14)
2.43
1.14
2.86
0.57
2.00
1.71
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.7%
Under 1.5
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.6%
Under 2.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.4%
Under 3.5
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.6%
No
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
8.7%
2-0
7.8%
0-0
7.4%
1-2
7.0%
0-1
6.2%
2-2
5.6%
Sireți goals ↓
Politehnica UTM goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
6.2%
4.4%
1.7%
0.5%
1
8.7%
13%
7.0%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.8%
9.3%
5.6%
2.2%
0.7%
3
4.2%
4.9%
2.9%
1.2%
0.3%
4
1.6%
2.0%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sireți goals (down), columns = Politehnica UTM goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
Sireți is 0.56 points worse than Politehnica UTM in terms of average points per game (0.78 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
Sireți is 1.00 goals worse than Politehnica UTM in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
Sireți is 0.22 goals better than Politehnica UTM in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sireți or Draw
72.6%
Avg Implied -
45%
27%
27%
covers Sireți + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sireți or Politehnica UTM
72.8%
Avg Implied -
45%
27%
27%
covers Sireți + Politehnica UTM
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Politehnica UTM
54.6%
Avg Implied -
45%
27%
27%
covers Draw + Politehnica UTM
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sireți over/under 0.5
Over
79.6%
Under
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 1.5
Over
47.2%
Under
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 2.5
Over
21.4%
Under
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 3.5
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5
Over
69.6%
Under
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5
Over
33.4%
Under
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sireți, so a minus line means Sireți give that many goals of a start and Politehnica UTM receive them. At -1, Sireți must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sireți win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sireți)
Sireți -2
9.9%
Draw -2
14.1%
Politehnica UTM +2
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sireți)
Sireți -1
24.0%
Draw -1
21.5%
Politehnica UTM +1
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sireți)
Sireți +1
72.6%
Draw +1
15.8%
Politehnica UTM -1
11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sireți)
Sireți +2
88.4%
Draw +2
7.9%
Politehnica UTM -2
3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sireți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.40
0.94
0.29
0.92
0.54
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
0.38
1.00
0.38
1.00
0.40
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.50
1.14
0.29
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Politehnica UTM
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
1.19
0.69
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.00
0.75
1.12
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (14)
1.29
0.36
1.71
0.29
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sireți over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sireți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.63
1.29
0.53
1.00
0.77
vs Stronger (13)
1.23
0.62
1.50
0.38
0.80
1.00
vs Similar (14)
1.21
0.79
1.29
0.86
1.14
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Politehnica UTM
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.93
0.88
0.50
0.93
1.43
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.21
0.62
0.75
0.67
1.83
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.79
1.14
0.29
1.14
1.29
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sireți over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
Sireți and Politehnica UTM have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
Sireți and Politehnica UTM have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
Sireți and Politehnica UTM have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Sireți and Politehnica UTM have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
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Zimbru
Sheriff Tiraspol
Petrocub
Dacia-Buiucani
Milsami Orhei
CSF Bălți