The away win is the expected outcome in this match, with Sheriff Tiraspol's recent form note of coming off a win adding to their momentum. The away team's away scoring and conceding statistics, averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.44 conceded, respectively, when facing weaker opponents, suggest they might struggle to find the net. However, their overall away win percentage is 54% and their away scoring average of 1.89 goals per match indicates they can pose a threat.
The expected total goals is 2.6, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.5%. Sirel's home scoring and conceding statistics, averaging 2.8 goals scored and 1 goal conceded per match when facing stronger opponents, indicate they have a strong attacking presence. The model's selection for Over 1.5 goals has a probability of 74.9%, while Under 3.5 goals has a probability of 73%. Sirel's home win percentage is 19%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 54%. The model's selection for the away win has a probability of 54%, and the model's selection for Over 1.5 goals has a probability of 74.9%.
Results analysis
In a stunning turn of events, Sheriff Tiraspol came from behind to secure a 1-1 draw against Sireni, extending their unbeaten run to 5 matches. The result was a major upset, as the pre-match favourite Sireni failed to capitalise on their stronger home form. The model's selection, an away win for Sheriff Tiraspol, was unfortunately incorrect, given the pre-match probability of 54%. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks performed well, with "Under 3.5" goals hitting at 74.4% and "Over 1.5" goals also coming in at 73.7%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sireți win✗ Miss
19.6%
Avg Implied 8.1% · @ 11.19
Edge
+11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
13.00
William Hil
12.00
888Sport
12.00
Dafabet
12.00
1xBet
11.80
Draw✓ Hit
26.8%
Avg Implied 16.2% · @ 5.59
Edge
+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
6.20
Betfair
6.00
Pinnacle
5.81
1xBet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.75
Sheriff Tiraspol win✗ Miss
53.5%
Avg Implied 75.8% · @ 1.19
Edge
-22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.21
Dafabet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
888Sport
1.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sireți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.40
1.17
2.62
0.88
2.14
1.50
vs Stronger (14)
2.36
1.14
2.71
0.71
2.00
1.57
vs Similar (13)
2.77
1.46
3.14
1.29
2.33
1.67
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheriff Tiraspol
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.17
1.60
0.93
1.47
1.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.42
1.83
1.50
1.00
1.33
2.67
vs Weaker (16)
1.81
0.44
1.88
0.38
1.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.7%
@ 1.15-7.2%
Under 1.5
26.3%
@ 4.85+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.15
888Sport
1.14
Under
888Sport
5.00
1xBet
4.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.2%
@ 1.49-13.9%
Under 2.5
52.8%
@ 2.34+13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.46
Under
Pinnacle
2.41
Bet365
2.40
888Sport
2.40
Marathonbet
2.33
1xBet
2.33
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.6%
@ 2.24-15.2%
Under 3.5
74.4%
@ 1.54+15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.23
Betano
2.20
Under
1xBet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.54
888Sport
1.53
Betano
1.52
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.5%
@ 2.03+4.6%
No
50.5%
@ 1.66-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
2.03
1xBet
2.03
No
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.8%@ 11.33+9.1%
0-1
11.6%@ 7.50+6.0%
0-2
10.5%@ 5.83+3.3%
1-2
9.6%@ 9.33+5.1%
0-0
8.9%@ 15.00+6.1%
1-0
5.9%@ 26.00+4.3%
0-3
5.8%@ 6.67-0.5%
2-1
5.3%@ 29.00+3.9%
Sireți goals ↓
Sheriff Tiraspol goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
12%
10%
5.8%
2.4%
1
5.9%
13%
9.6%
5.3%
2.2%
2
3.2%
5.3%
4.4%
2.4%
1.0%
3
1.0%
1.6%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sireți goals (down), columns = Sheriff Tiraspol goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
Sireți is 1.22 points worse than Sheriff Tiraspol in terms of average points per game (0.78 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
Sireți is 1.44 goals worse than Sheriff Tiraspol in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 2.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
Sireți is 0.22 goals worse than Sheriff Tiraspol in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 0.89).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sireți or Draw✓ Hit
46.5%
Avg Implied -
20%
27%
54%
covers Sireți + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sireți or Sheriff Tiraspol✗ Miss
73.2%
Avg Implied -
20%
27%
54%
covers Sireți + Sheriff Tiraspol
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sheriff Tiraspol✓ Hit
80.4%
Avg Implied -
20%
27%
54%
covers Draw + Sheriff Tiraspol
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sireți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.47
1.25
0.25
1.21
0.71
vs Stronger (14)
1.29
0.50
1.14
0.29
1.43
0.71
vs Similar (13)
1.38
0.54
1.71
0.29
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheriff Tiraspol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.57
0.93
0.40
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.58
0.83
0.17
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.88
0.44
1.12
0.38
0.62
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sireți over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sireți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.70
1.38
0.62
0.93
0.79
vs Stronger (14)
1.07
0.64
1.57
0.43
0.57
0.86
vs Similar (13)
1.38
0.92
1.43
1.00
1.33
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheriff Tiraspol
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
0.67
0.53
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
1.25
0.67
0.83
0.50
1.67
vs Weaker (16)
0.94
0.00
0.75
0.00
1.12
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sireți over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Draw or Away
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.4%
1.54
1xBet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.54
888Sport
1.53
Betano
1.52
+15.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.7%
1.15
1xBet
1.15
888Sport
1.14
-
-
-
-7.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sheriff Tiraspol · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cristian Tovar29%
Amine Talal14%
Jerome Mbekeli14%
David Ankeye14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Ricardinho0%
Maksym Koval0%
Luvannor Henrique0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gabi Kiki75%
Amine Talal57%
Armel Zohouri50%
Cedric Badolo33%
Konstantinos Apostolakis29%
Maksym Koval29%
Cristian Tovar29%
Jerome Mbekeli29%
Luvannor Henrique17%
Alejandro Artunduaga17%
João Paulo17%
Ricardinho14%
David Ankeye0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ricardinho29%
David Ankeye14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Amine Talal0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Maksym Koval0%
Luvannor Henrique0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cristian Tovar0%
Jerome Mbekeli0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Amine Talal29%
David Ankeye29%
Luvannor Henrique17%
Jerome Mbekeli14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Ricardinho0%
Maksym Koval0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cristian Tovar0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
Sireți's squad is €5m less valuable than Sheriff Tiraspol's (€1m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
Sireți's attack is €2m less valuable than Sheriff Tiraspol's (€0m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
Sireți and Sheriff Tiraspol have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Sireți's defence is €3m less valuable than Sheriff Tiraspol's (€0m vs €3m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zimbru
Petrocub
Dacia-Buiucani
Politehnica UTM
Milsami Orhei
CSF Bălți