The model favours an away win, with a 54% chance for Zimbru to come out on top, 27% for a draw and 19% for a Sirebi victory. The expected total is 2.5 goals, most likely a 1-1 scoreline at 12.8%. Sirebi, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 2.5 goals scored and 0.75 conceded, while Zimbru, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 2.88 goals scored and 0.62 conceded. Recent form shows Sirebi unbeaten in their last five, while Zimbru are on a three-game winning streak. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.7%), Under 6.5 (98.5%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.0%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.5%), Under 5.5 (95.5%), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.4%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sireți win
19.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zimbru win
53.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sireți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.03
2.24
0.82
1.92
1.31
vs Stronger (13)
2.23
1.00
2.50
0.75
1.80
1.40
vs Similar (14)
2.21
1.29
2.43
1.14
2.00
1.43
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.03
2.44
1.12
2.07
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.50
1.21
1.88
1.12
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (16)
2.94
0.88
3.00
1.12
2.88
0.62
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.4%
Under 1.5
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.8%
Under 2.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.2%
Under 3.5
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.0%
No
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
0-1
11.8%
0-2
10.7%
1-2
9.6%
0-0
9.0%
1-0
5.9%
0-3
5.9%
1-3
5.3%
Sireți goals ↓
Zimbru goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
12%
11%
5.9%
2.4%
1
5.9%
13%
9.6%
5.3%
2.2%
2
3.2%
5.2%
4.3%
2.4%
1.0%
3
0.9%
1.6%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sireți goals (down), columns = Zimbru goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
Sireți is 1.33 points worse than Zimbru in terms of average points per game (0.78 vs 2.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
Sireți is 1.89 goals worse than Zimbru in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 2.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
Sireți and Zimbru are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sireți or Draw
46.1%
Avg Implied -
19%
27%
54%
covers Sireți + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sireți or Zimbru
73.2%
Avg Implied -
19%
27%
54%
covers Sireți + Zimbru
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zimbru
80.7%
Avg Implied -
19%
27%
54%
covers Draw + Zimbru
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sireți over/under 0.5
Over
59.2%
Under
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 1.5
Over
22.7%
Under
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 2.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 0.5
Over
80.8%
Under
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 1.5
Over
49.1%
Under
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 2.5
Over
22.9%
Under
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 3.5
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sireți, so a minus line means Sireți give that many goals of a start and Zimbru receive them. At -1, Sireți must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sireți win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sireți)
Sireți -2
1.7%
Draw -2
5.0%
Zimbru +2
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sireți)
Sireți -1
6.7%
Draw -1
12.5%
Zimbru +1
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sireți)
Sireți +1
46.1%
Draw +1
24.0%
Zimbru -1
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sireți)
Sireți +2
70.1%
Draw +2
17.0%
Zimbru -2
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sireți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.40
0.94
0.29
0.92
0.54
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
0.38
1.00
0.38
1.00
0.40
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.50
1.14
0.29
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.30
0.88
0.31
0.93
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.43
0.62
0.25
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
1.12
0.19
1.12
0.38
1.12
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.9%
Under 0.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.8%
Under 1.5
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.7%
Under 2.5
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sireți over/under 0.5 HT
Over
35.8%
Under
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.2%
Under
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.9%
Under
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sireți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.63
1.29
0.53
1.00
0.77
vs Stronger (13)
1.23
0.62
1.50
0.38
0.80
1.00
vs Similar (14)
1.21
0.79
1.29
0.86
1.14
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.73
1.56
0.81
1.14
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.79
1.25
0.88
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
1.81
0.69
1.88
0.75
1.75
0.62
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.8%
Under 0.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.3%
Under 1.5
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.1%
Under 2.5
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sireți over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.5%
Under
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.7%
Under
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.2%
Under
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.4%
Under
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
Sireți's squad is €3m less valuable than Zimbru's (€1m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
Sireți's attack is €2m less valuable than Zimbru's (€0m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
Sireți and Zimbru have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Sireți's defence is €1m less valuable than Zimbru's (€0m vs €1m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sheriff Tiraspol
Petrocub
Dacia-Buiucani
Politehnica UTM
Milsami Orhei
CSF Bălți