Sirius vs Hammarby FF Result & Analysis

Sirius are the favoured side, with the model picking a home win and assigning a 42% chance to that outcome, a 30% probability to a draw and 28% to an away victory. The average goal tally is 2.3, suggesting a modestly low-scoring affair. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.3% probability, a figure that sits comfortably within the expected total of two goals. Sirius’ recent form shows a shaky start, coming off a 0-1 loss to Malmö FF, while Hammarby FF have also been unsettled after a 2-3 defeat to AIK Stockholm, though their last five results include three wins.

The model’s selections cover a range of match-specific outcomes. Over 19.5 fouls is a 90.0% pick, while over 21.5 fouls is 80.4% but is expected to miss. Under 11.5 corners and under 10.5 corners are both 79.9% and 70.1% picks respectively, both predicted to hit. Over 2.5 cards and under 5.5 cards carry 79.2% and 75.0% probabilities, each likely to hit. Finally, under 3.5 is a 79.2% pick, also expected to hit.

The upset came early as Sirius, the pre-match favourite, failed to convert a 42% chance of victory into a win, losing 0-3 to Hammarby FF. Sirius had just come off a defeat, while Hammarby were also on the back of a loss, yet the away side turned the tables. The model’s call was wrong, but its other selections largely held. Over 19.5 fouls hit at 90%, under 11.5 corners hit at 79.9%, over 2.5 cards hit at 79.2%, under 3.5 hit at 79.2%, under 5.5 cards hit at 75%, and under 10.5 corners hit at 70.1%. Only over 21.5 fouls missed, falling short of the 80.4% probability.