The model favours an away win, with a 42% chance of Chernihiv taking the match, 32% for SK Poltava and 26% for a draw. The expected total goals is 3.0, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.1%. Poltava, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened side, averages 1.09 goals scored and 1.64 conceded, while Chernihiv on the road averages 1.0 scored and 1.56 conceded. The suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.7% probability, and the model notes this selection has hit. The match’s overall shape suggests a competitive encounter with both sides likely to find the net, yet the edge lies with Chernihiv, who are riding an unbeaten run at home and have a slightly better win probability.
Results analysis
The upset came early as SK Poltava stunned the pre-match favourite Chernihiv, winning 2-0 and ending the latter’s five-match losing streak. The model had tipped an away win with a 42% probability, but that call proved wrong. The model’s selection for Over 1.5 goals, at 81.7%, hit as the match produced two goals. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 was missed, and the 2-1 outcome was also a miss. The final score of 2-0 confirmed a home win, contradicting the model’s favourite. The home side’s unbeaten run in their last five matches, highlighted by a 1-0 win over Kolos Kovalivka II, proved decisive.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
SK Poltava win✓ Hit
31.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv win✗ Miss
42.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SK Poltava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.57
1.00
1.62
1.76
1.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.50
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (26)
1.54
1.58
1.09
1.64
1.87
1.53
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernihiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chernihiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.60
0.88
1.31
1.14
1.93
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
2.00
0.40
1.40
1.40
2.60
vs Similar (20)
1.05
1.40
1.09
1.27
1.00
1.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (SK Poltava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.7%
Under 1.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.5%
Under 2.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.1%
Under 3.5
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.8%
No
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
1-2
9.0%
2-1
7.7%
0-1
6.8%
0-2
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
0-0
5.9%
1-0
5.6%
SK Poltava goals ↓
Chernihiv goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
6.8%
6.4%
3.5%
1.4%
1
5.6%
12%
9.0%
4.9%
2.0%
2
4.7%
7.7%
6.3%
3.4%
1.4%
3
2.2%
3.6%
2.9%
1.6%
0.7%
4
0.8%
1.3%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SK Poltava goals (down), columns = Chernihiv goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
UCSA
3.00
Inhulets
2.39
Karpaty
2.32
Zvyahel
2.00
Livyi Bereh
1.93
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.57
Bukovyna
1.46
Nyva Buzova
1.43
Prykarpattia
1.43
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.39
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.39
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.36
SK Poltava
1.32
Yarud Mariupol'
1.32
Nyva Ternopil
1.29
Metal Kharkiv
1.07
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.07
Khust City
1.00
Metalurh Zaporizhya
0.93
Kremin'
0.89
Hirnyk-Sport
0.82
Chernihiv
0.82
SK Poltava is 0.50 points better than Chernihiv in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 0.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
UCSA
3.50
Inhulets
2.14
Livyi Bereh
2.11
SK Poltava
1.75
Karpaty
1.75
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.39
Bukovyna
1.36
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.29
Prykarpattia
1.25
Chernihiv
1.21
Khust City
1.17
Nyva Buzova
1.14
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.11
Yarud Mariupol'
1.04
Nyva Ternopil
1.04
Zvyahel
1.00
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
0.96
Metal Kharkiv
0.96
Metalurh Zaporizhya
0.93
Hirnyk-Sport
0.86
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.82
Kremin'
0.71
SK Poltava is 0.54 goals better than Chernihiv in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Zvyahel
0.50
UCSA
0.50
Inhulets
0.61
Karpaty
0.71
Livyi Bereh
0.75
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.93
Yarud Mariupol'
0.93
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.96
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.04
Bukovyna
1.04
Nyva Ternopil
1.04
Prykarpattia
1.07
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.18
Nyva Buzova
1.21
Metal Kharkiv
1.21
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.36
SK Poltava
1.61
Kremin'
1.71
Hirnyk-Sport
1.75
Metalurh Zaporizhya
1.83
Khust City
1.83
Chernihiv
2.36
SK Poltava is 0.75 goals better than Chernihiv in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 2.36).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SK Poltava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.46
0.46
0.71
0.65
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.54
0.55
0.36
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernihiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chernihiv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.44
0.56
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.80
0.00
0.40
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.65
0.64
0.64
0.78
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (SK Poltava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SK Poltava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SK Poltava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SK Poltava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SK Poltava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.00
0.54
1.15
1.06
0.88
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.92
1.04
0.55
1.27
1.20
0.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernihiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chernihiv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.90
0.44
0.75
0.50
1.07
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.20
0.40
1.00
1.00
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.75
0.45
0.64
0.22
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (SK Poltava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SK Poltava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SK Poltava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SK Poltava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
SK Poltava · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Valerii Sad40%
Yevgen Misyura14%
Danyil Sukhoruchko12%
Oleh Veremiienko11%
Maksym Marusych9%
Igor Kotsyumaka8%
Denys Galenkov7%
Volodymyr Odariuk6%
Yevhen Opanasenko0%
Valeriy Voskonyan0%
Oleksandr Pyatov0%
Mykola Buzhyn0%
Svyatoslav Shapovalov0%
Oleksii Khakhliov0%
Vladyslav Danylenko0%
Dmytro Plakhtyr0%
Bohdan Kobzar0%
Yevgen Streltsov0%
Illia Ukhan0%
Andriy Savenkov0%
Vadym Pidlepych0%
Oleksandr Vivdych0%
Mykyta Kononov0%
Artem Onishchenko0%
Mykyta Minchev0%
Arsentiy Doroshenko0%
Alexander Vivdych0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oleh Veremiienko44%
Vladyslav Danylenko42%
Svyatoslav Shapovalov33%
Illia Ukhan29%
Denys Galenkov21%
Dmytro Plakhtyr21%
Andriy Savenkov18%
Igor Kotsyumaka17%
Arsentiy Doroshenko15%
Bohdan Kobzar14%
Mykyta Minchev14%
Danyil Sukhoruchko12%
Maksym Marusych9%
Mykola Buzhyn9%
Mykyta Kononov8%
Yevgen Misyura7%
Yevhen Opanasenko0%
Valeriy Voskonyan0%
Volodymyr Odariuk0%
Oleksandr Pyatov0%
Valerii Sad0%
Oleksii Khakhliov0%
Yevgen Streltsov0%
Vadym Pidlepych0%
Oleksandr Vivdych0%
Artem Onishchenko0%
Alexander Vivdych0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Valerii Sad20%
Volodymyr Odariuk12%
Maksym Marusych9%
Arsentiy Doroshenko8%
Denys Galenkov7%
Yevgen Misyura7%
Yevhen Opanasenko0%
Danyil Sukhoruchko0%
Valeriy Voskonyan0%
Oleh Veremiienko0%
Oleksandr Pyatov0%
Mykola Buzhyn0%
Svyatoslav Shapovalov0%
Oleksii Khakhliov0%
Vladyslav Danylenko0%
Dmytro Plakhtyr0%
Bohdan Kobzar0%
Yevgen Streltsov0%
Illia Ukhan0%
Andriy Savenkov0%
Vadym Pidlepych0%
Oleksandr Vivdych0%
Mykyta Kononov0%
Artem Onishchenko0%
Mykyta Minchev0%
Alexander Vivdych0%
Igor Kotsyumaka0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Valerii Sad20%
Danyil Sukhoruchko12%
Maksym Marusych9%
Dmytro Plakhtyr7%
Yevgen Misyura7%
Volodymyr Odariuk6%
Yevhen Opanasenko0%
Valeriy Voskonyan0%
Oleh Veremiienko0%
Oleksandr Pyatov0%
Mykola Buzhyn0%
Svyatoslav Shapovalov0%
Denys Galenkov0%
Oleksii Khakhliov0%
Vladyslav Danylenko0%
Bohdan Kobzar0%
Yevgen Streltsov0%
Illia Ukhan0%
Andriy Savenkov0%
Vadym Pidlepych0%
Oleksandr Vivdych0%
Mykyta Kononov0%
Artem Onishchenko0%
Mykyta Minchev0%
Arsentiy Doroshenko0%
Alexander Vivdych0%
Igor Kotsyumaka0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (28)
€13m
BUK (25)
€9m
ED (23)
€6m
LB (25)
€5m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
INH (15)
€1m
SK Poltava's squad is €2m more valuable than Chernihiv's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (8)
€4m
BUK (10)
€4m
LB (7)
€2m
ED (6)
€1m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
SK Poltava and Chernihiv have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (5)
€2m
BUK (5)
€2m
ED (6)
€2m
YM (7)
€1m
LB (6)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
INH (5)
€0m
SK Poltava and Chernihiv have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (15)
€7m
BUK (10)
€3m
ED (11)
€3m
LB (12)
€2m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
SK Poltava's defence is €1m more valuable than Chernihiv's (€2m vs €1m).
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →