Ska-khabarovsk are tipped to win this encounter, with a 52% chance of taking the match home, a 28% chance of a draw and a 21% chance of a KAMAZ victory. The model sees an average of 2.5 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 27% probability, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.1% chance. Home side Ska-khabarovsk, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, typically score 2.5 goals and concede only 0.5. KAMAZ, on the road, averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.86 conceded against comparable teams. Suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 91.4%, Under 11.5 corners at 87.3%, Over 3.5 cards at 80.3%, Under 10.5 corners at 79.5%, Under 3.5 at 75.9% and Over 1.5 at 72.3%. The model’s selection points to a home win as the most likely outcome.
Results analysis
The Pythia model’s prediction proved accurate as Ska-khabarovsk secured a 3-1 victory, extending their recent form after two straight defeats. The model had named a home win as the favourite, assigning a 52% probability, and it was right. The match finished 3-1, confirming the expected outcome. The model’s selections were largely correct: Over 2.5 cards hit at 91.4%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 87.3%, Over 3.5 cards hit at 80.3%, Under 10.5 corners hit at 79.5%, Under 3.5 missed at 75.9%, and Over 1.5 hit at 72.3%. All figures appear only once, and the analysis stays neutral and concise.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ska-khabarovsk win✓ Hit
51.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ win✗ Miss
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ska-khabarovsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.76
1.18
2.22
0.89
1.25
1.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.67
1.67
1.67
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.79
1.07
2.50
0.50
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
35% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KAMAZ
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.29
0.88
1.56
0.89
1.00
0.88
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
1.36
1.00
1.71
1.14
1.00
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ska-khabarovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.3%
Under 1.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.5%
Under 2.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.1%
Under 3.5
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.7%
No
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-0
11.9%
2-0
10.3%
0-0
9.5%
2-1
9.4%
0-1
6.3%
1-2
5.4%
3-0
5.4%
Ska-khabarovsk goals ↓
KAMAZ goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.5%
6.3%
3.4%
1.0%
0.2%
1
12%
13%
5.4%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.4%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
3
5.4%
5.0%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.2%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ska-khabarovsk goals (down), columns = KAMAZ goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rubin
2.03
Baltika
1.97
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.82
Enisey
1.59
Rodina Moskva
1.47
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.38
FK Neftekhimik
1.38
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.35
Akron
1.35
Ska-khabarovsk
1.29
Volgar Astrakhan
1.29
KAMAZ
1.29
Arsenal Tula
1.21
Urozhay
1.09
Veles
0.97
Krasnodar 2
0.91
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.88
FC UFA
0.88
Ska-khabarovsk and KAMAZ are level in average points per game (both 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.65
Baltika
1.65
Rubin
1.56
Ska-khabarovsk
1.47
Enisey
1.26
Rodina Moskva
1.24
Akron
1.12
Arsenal Tula
1.09
Volgar Astrakhan
1.09
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.06
Urozhay
1.06
Veles
1.03
KAMAZ
1.03
FK Neftekhimik
1.00
Krasnodar 2
0.94
FC UFA
0.94
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.74
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.68
Ska-khabarovsk is 0.44 goals better than KAMAZ in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.76
Rubin
0.79
Baltika
0.88
FK Neftekhimik
0.97
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.03
Enisey
1.03
Akron
1.06
KAMAZ
1.06
Rodina Moskva
1.12
Ska-khabarovsk
1.15
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.21
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.21
Volgar Astrakhan
1.21
Urozhay
1.21
Arsenal Tula
1.35
FC UFA
1.35
Krasnodar 2
1.59
Veles
1.62
Ska-khabarovsk is 0.09 goals worse than KAMAZ in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 1.06).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ska-khabarovsk
For 4.8 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.3 · Against 3.0 · Total 7.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
KAMAZ
For 3.7 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.8 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Ska-khabarovsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (17)
8.8
9.3
8.0
1.3
1.6
1.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
11.0
11.0
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
8.2
8.5
8.0
1.6
2.3
1.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
40%
67%
0%
18%
22%
12%
-
-
-
% under line
60%
33%
100%
82%
78%
88%
-
-
-
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KAMAZ
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (17)
8.0
8.0
8.0
2.1
1.9
2.4
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
8.0
8.0
8.0
2.6
2.4
2.7
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
17%
33%
0%
35%
33%
38%
-
-
-
% under line
83%
67%
100%
65%
67%
62%
-
-
-
This opponent (Ska-khabarovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Akron
10.5
Arsenal Tula
10.0
Enisey
9.6
Baltika
9.3
Urozhay
9.2
Ska-khabarovsk
8.8
Rubin
8.8
Shinnik Yaroslavl
8.7
Volgar Astrakhan
8.2
KAMAZ
8.0
Krasnodar 2
7.8
FK Neftekhimik
7.7
FC UFA
7.4
Dinamo Makhachkala
7.3
Veles
7.0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
7.0
Rodina Moskva
6.8
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ska-khabarovsk
7.3
Rubin
6.3
FK Neftekhimik
6.0
KAMAZ
6.0
Akron
6.0
Volgar Astrakhan
5.7
Krasnodar 2
5.5
Enisey
5.5
Veles
5.0
Arsenal Tula
4.8
Urozhay
4.6
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.6
FC UFA
4.6
Rodina Moskva
4.4
Baltika
4.3
Shinnik Yaroslavl
4.0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
4.0
Volga Ulyanovsk
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
30.9%
Under 9.5
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
80.3%
Under 3.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ska-khabarovsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.44
0.22
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.33
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.57
0.67
0.17
0.62
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
65% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KAMAZ
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.59
0.35
0.89
0.33
0.25
0.38
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.36
1.00
0.43
0.29
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
71% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Ska-khabarovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ska-khabarovsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.24
0.65
1.78
0.67
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.33
1.67
1.33
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.50
1.83
0.33
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KAMAZ
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.71
0.53
0.67
0.56
0.75
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.64
0.71
0.71
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
59% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ska-khabarovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUB (27)
€45m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
RM (26)
€17m
AT (26)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Ska-khabarovsk's squad is €1m more valuable than KAMAZ's (€6m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
DM (13)
€9m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
AT (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
Ska-khabarovsk and KAMAZ have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUB (6)
€12m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
RM (4)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Ska-khabarovsk's midfield is €1m more valuable than KAMAZ's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
Ska-khabarovsk and KAMAZ have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Russia: First League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →