Ska-khabarovsk are the clear favourites, with the model giving them a 70% chance of victory. Their home form shows an average of two goals scored and only 0.42 conceded against similar opposition, while Shinnik Yaroslavl’s away record is weaker, with 0.69 goals for and 1.69 against. The prediction favours a 2-0 win for the hosts, the most likely scoreline at 15.2% probability, and the expected total of 2.5 goals points to a moderate-scoring game. The model also assigns a 21% chance of a draw and a 9% chance of an away win.
The suggested picks include an 83.1% probability of over 2.5 cards, a 75.0% chance of under 3.5 goals (which has already hit), a 74.5% chance of under 11.5 corners, and a 72.8% probability of over 1.5 goals (also hit). These selections reflect the expected activity and goal output in the match.
Results analysis
The win extends Ska-Khabarovsk’s run, cementing their recent form after two straight defeats. The model’s favourite, a home win with a 70% probability, proved correct as the final score was 2-0, a decisive home victory. The most likely scoreline of 2-0, with a 15.2% chance, materialised, and the 26% probability for the 2-goal total was also realised. The model’s selections were largely accurate: the Under 3.5 goals pick, with a 75% probability, hit, and the Over 1.5 goals pick, at 72.8%, also hit. Overall, the Pythia prediction delivered a precise outcome and a strong set of selections.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ska-khabarovsk winâś“ Hit
69.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl winâś— Miss
9.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Ska-khabarovsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.07
1.93
0.67
0.93
1.47
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
2.00
1.67
1.67
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (24)
1.54
0.83
2.00
0.42
1.08
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Shinnik Yaroslavl) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.13
1.47
0.53
0.60
1.73
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.11
1.11
1.50
0.57
0.69
1.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ska-khabarovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.8%
Under 1.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.5%
Under 2.5
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.0%
Under 3.5
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
38.4%
No
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0 âś“
15.2%
1-0
14.7%
3-0
10.0%
1-1
9.8%
0-0
8.8%
2-1
8.7%
3-1
5.7%
4-0
4.9%
Ska-khabarovsk goals ↓
Shinnik Yaroslavl goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
3.7%
1.3%
0.2%
0.0%
1
15%
9.8%
2.6%
0.5%
0.1%
2
15%
8.7%
2.5%
0.5%
0.1%
3
10.0%
5.7%
1.6%
0.3%
0.0%
4
4.9%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ska-khabarovsk goals (down), columns = Shinnik Yaroslavl goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Khimki
1.94
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.79
Akron
1.74
Arsenal Tula
1.62
Rodina Moskva
1.62
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.50
Enisey
1.50
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.44
Tyumen
1.41
Torpedo Moskva
1.38
FK Neftekhimik
1.24
Ska-khabarovsk
1.21
KAMAZ
1.21
FK Sokol Saratov
1.12
Chernomorets
1.03
Leningradets
1.00
Volgar Astrakhan
1.00
Urozhay
0.68
Ska-khabarovsk is 0.29 points worse than Shinnik Yaroslavl in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Khimki
1.65
Enisey
1.62
Rodina Moskva
1.56
Akron
1.41
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.24
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.15
Arsenal Tula
1.15
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.09
Tyumen
1.06
Ska-khabarovsk
0.97
Torpedo Moskva
0.97
FK Sokol Saratov
0.94
FK Neftekhimik
0.91
KAMAZ
0.88
Chernomorets
0.88
Volgar Astrakhan
0.85
Leningradets
0.79
Urozhay
0.59
Ska-khabarovsk is 0.18 goals worse than Shinnik Yaroslavl in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.56
Arsenal Tula
0.74
Akron
0.76
Rodina Moskva
0.91
Torpedo Moskva
0.97
Tyumen
1.03
FK Neftekhimik
1.03
Ska-khabarovsk
1.06
KAMAZ
1.06
Chernomorets
1.12
Khimki
1.15
Enisey
1.18
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.21
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.24
Leningradets
1.29
Volgar Astrakhan
1.29
FK Sokol Saratov
1.56
Urozhay
1.56
Ska-khabarovsk is 0.15 goals better than Shinnik Yaroslavl in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.21).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ska-khabarovsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.53
0.47
0.27
0.20
0.80
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.83
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.46
0.58
0.25
0.25
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Shinnik Yaroslavl) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.93
0.20
0.33
0.60
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (27)
0.70
0.41
1.00
0.21
0.38
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Ska-khabarovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ska-khabarovsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.53
1.47
0.40
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.17
1.67
1.33
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.12
0.38
1.42
0.17
0.83
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Shinnik Yaroslavl) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.73
0.53
0.33
0.27
1.13
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (27)
0.41
0.70
0.50
0.36
0.31
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Ska-khabarovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ska-khabarovsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
RM (26)
€17m
TM (23)
€11m
AT (26)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Ska-khabarovsk and Shinnik Yaroslavl have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKR (9)
€11m
DM (13)
€9m
RM (11)
€7m
TM (10)
€5m
AT (8)
€3m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
Ska-khabarovsk and Shinnik Yaroslavl have a similar attack value (both €2m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKR (6)
€6m
RM (4)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Ska-khabarovsk and Shinnik Yaroslavl have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
TM (9)
€4m
AT (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
Ska-khabarovsk and Shinnik Yaroslavl have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Russia: First League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →