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Skanste vs Mārupe Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2026
Time: 12:00
Final 4-2
Skanste
Skanste
Vs
41%
27%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mārupe
Mārupe
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

This highly anticipated matchup between Skanste and Mārupe in the Latvia: 1. Liga has all the makings of a closely contested encounter. Skanste's recent form has been impressive, having won two of their last five games, including a resounding 5-1 victory over Rēzekne FA. In contrast, Mārupe have struggled, suffering two consecutive defeats and a 0-1 loss to Leevon / PPK.

The model predicts a home win, with a 41% chance of Skanste emerging victorious. The probability of a draw stands at 27%, while Mārupe's chances of winning are 32%. The expected total goals for this match is 2.9, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring with a probability of 12.7%. Skanste's home form is impressive, averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded against weaker opponents. Conversely, Mārupe's away form has been poor, averaging 0.57 goals scored and 2.14 conceded against stronger opponents.

The model's selection is Over 1.5, which has a 79.5% probability of occurring. Other suggested picks include Home win (41%), Draw (27%), and Away win (32%).

Results analysis

The win extends Skanste's run to 2 games, having beaten Rēzekne FA 5-1 in their previous match. In a high-scoring encounter, the final score was 4-2 in favour of the home team. The model correctly predicted a home win, which had a pre-match probability of 41%. The model's selection was the favourite, and its call was correct. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a pre-match probability of 79.5%. The other suggested pick, the most likely total goals of 2, missed, with a pre-match probability of 24%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Skanste win✓ Hit
41.1%
Avg Implied 36.7% · @ 2.45
Edge
+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Dafabet
2.50
Betano
2.47
William Hil
2.45
Draw✗ Miss
27.0%
Avg Implied 25.7% · @ 3.49
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.70
10Bet
3.60
Betano
3.55
Dafabet
3.50
Mārupe win✗ Miss
31.9%
Avg Implied 37.6% · @ 2.39
Edge
-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
2.45
1xBet
2.44
Marathonbet
2.44
Pinnacle
2.44
Dafabet
2.43

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SkansteSkanste

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-610W21W10W11D03L00D03L62W03L12LH·RIG12/09A·RĒZ21/09A·MĀR28/09H·LEE04/10A·PRO18/10H·JFK25/10A·OGR01/11H·TUK08/11H·VAL18/07A·LEE25/07
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.601.331.471.131.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.671.780.601.400.752.25
vs Weaker (21)1.481.521.701.501.271.55
Clean sheet %20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MārupeMārupe

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W01L01L12L00D51W01L01L04L21WH·JDF14/09A·RIG20/09H·SKA28/09A·RĒZ05/10A·LEE19/10H·PRO25/10A·JFK01/11H·OGR08/11H·MET18/07A·RĒZ25/07
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.401.131.331.071.47
vs Stronger (2)1.003.001.002.001.004.00
vs Similar (11)1.181.551.001.671.401.40
vs Weaker (17)1.061.121.251.000.891.22
Clean sheet %20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Skanste) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.5%
@ 1.11-2.9%
Under 1.5
20.5%
@ 5.25+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Under
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.2%
@ 1.45-7.9%
Under 2.5
44.8%
@ 2.48+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.46
Superbet
1.46
Betfair
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Under
Betfair
2.60
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.46
1xBet
2.46
Superbet
2.45
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.8%
@ 2.15-9.8%
Under 3.5
67.2%
@ 1.60+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.20
Superbet
2.17
10Bet
2.15
1xBet
2.14
Marathonbet
2.14
Under
1xBet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
Superbet
1.60
Betfair
1.60
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.3%
@ 1.40-6.3%
No
40.7%
@ 2.68+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.44
William Hil
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
No
Betfair
2.75
1xBet
2.74
Marathonbet
2.67
William Hil
2.62
Superbet
2.60

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%@ 7.05+6.9%
2-1
8.9%@ 9.02+4.4%
1-2
7.7%@ 8.82+3.1%
1-0
7.4%@ 11.50+3.9%
0-0
6.7%@ 16.00+4.1%
2-0
6.7%@ 13.50+3.6%
0-1
6.3%@ 11.17+2.6%
2-2
6.0%@ 9.78+1.8%
Skanste goals ↓
Mārupe goals →
01234
06.7%6.3%5.0%2.2%0.8%
17.4%13%7.7%3.5%1.2%
26.7%8.9%6.0%2.7%0.9%
33.4%4.6%3.1%1.4%0.5%
41.3%1.8%1.2%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Skanste goals (down), columns = Mārupe goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Riga Mariners
2.23
JDFS Alberts
2.23
Metta / LU
1.84
Super Nova 2
1.84
JFK Ventspils
1.65
Rīgas FS II
1.58
Skanste
1.54
Valmiera / BSS
1.40
Leevon / PPK
1.38
Mārupe
1.23
Rēzekne FA
1.19
Smiltene
1.08
Riga FC II
0.92
Tukums II
0.88
Skanste is 0.31 points better than Mārupe in terms of average points per game (1.54 vs 1.23).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga Mariners
2.85
JDFS Alberts
2.31
Metta / LU
2.19
Super Nova 2
2.19
Rīgas FS II
1.77
Smiltene
1.77
Valmiera / BSS
1.66
Leevon / PPK
1.54
JFK Ventspils
1.54
Tukums II
1.42
Skanste
1.38
Rēzekne FA
1.38
Riga FC II
1.35
Mārupe
1.15
Skanste is 0.23 goals better than Mārupe in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.15).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
JDFS Alberts
0.92
JFK Ventspils
1.12
Rīgas FS II
1.19
Metta / LU
1.26
Super Nova 2
1.26
Mārupe
1.27
Riga Mariners
1.31
Skanste
1.50
Leevon / PPK
1.54
Riga FC II
1.65
Valmiera / BSS
1.66
Smiltene
1.85
Rēzekne FA
2.19
Tukums II
2.31
Skanste is 0.23 goals worse than Mārupe in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.27).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SkansteSkanste

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W00D11D01L00D01L32W01L11DH·RIG12/09A·RĒZ21/09A·MĀR28/09H·LEE04/10A·PRO18/10H·JFK25/10A·OGR01/11H·TUK08/11H·VAL18/07A·LEE25/07
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.970.400.870.401.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.220.890.200.600.251.25
vs Weaker (21)0.481.000.501.000.451.00
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MārupeMārupe

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D11D00D20W00D01L01L00DH·JDF14/09A·RIG20/09H·SKA28/09A·RĒZ05/10A·LEE19/10H·PRO25/10A·JFK01/11H·OGR08/11H·MET18/07A·RĒZ25/07
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.270.470.330.470.200.47
vs Stronger (2)0.500.500.000.001.001.00
vs Similar (11)0.180.640.330.670.000.60
vs Weaker (17)0.290.350.380.380.220.33
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Skanste) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Skanste over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SkansteSkanste

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D10W00D02L00D02L30W02L01LH·RIG12/09A·RĒZ21/09A·MĀR28/09H·LEE04/10A·PRO18/10H·JFK25/10A·OGR01/11H·TUK08/11H·VAL18/07A·LEE25/07
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.630.930.600.730.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.440.890.400.800.501.00
vs Weaker (21)1.000.521.200.500.820.55
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MārupeMārupe

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W01L01L01L00D31W01L00D03L21WH·JDF14/09A·RIG20/09H·SKA28/09A·RĒZ05/10A·LEE19/10H·PRO25/10A·JFK01/11H·OGR08/11H·MET18/07A·RĒZ25/07
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.930.800.870.871.00
vs Stronger (2)0.502.501.002.000.003.00
vs Similar (11)1.000.910.671.001.400.80
vs Weaker (17)0.760.760.880.620.670.89
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Skanste) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Skanste over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.5%1.11
1xBet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
----2.9%✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M/L (23)
€0m
SN2 (27)
€0m
L/P (38)
€0m
RFI (27)
€0m
TI (30)
€0m
JA (32)
€0m
RM (29)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (0)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
M/L (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (0)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
M/L (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (0)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
M/L (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
SKA wins
2
Draws
0
MĀR wins

Head-to-head

Skanste vs Mārupe · H/A from SKA
DateH/AGameScore
28/09/25AMārupe Vs SKA0-1
17/05/25HSKA Vs Mārupe1-0
03/08/24AMārupe Vs SKA0-0
06/04/24HSKA Vs Mārupe1-1

SkansteSkanste

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/07/26ALeevon / PPK Vs SKA2-1
18/07/26HSKA Vs Valmiera / BSS0-3
08/11/25HSKA Vs Tukums II6-2
01/11/25AOgre United Vs SKA3-0
25/10/25HSKA Vs JFK Ventspils0-0
18/10/25AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs SKA3-0
04/10/25HSKA Vs Leevon / PPK1-1
28/09/25AMārupe Vs SKA0-1
21/09/25ARēzekne FA Vs SKA1-2
12/09/25HSKA Vs Riga FC II1-0

MārupeMārupe

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/07/26ARēzekne FA Vs MĀR1-2
18/07/26HMĀR Vs Metta / LU0-4
08/11/25HMĀR Vs Ogre United0-1
01/11/25AJFK Ventspils Vs MĀR1-0
25/10/25HMĀR Vs Progress / AFA Olaine5-1
19/10/25ALeevon / PPK Vs MĀR0-0
05/10/25ARēzekne FA Vs MĀR2-1
28/09/25HMĀR Vs Skanste0-1
20/09/25ARiga FC II Vs MĀR1-0
14/09/25HMĀR Vs JDFS Alberts2-1

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Skanste
Skanste
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLL1.54
HomeWDDWL1.64
AwayWWLLL1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%48%44%
AVG goals2.883.002.76
Over 1.5 %70%72%68%
Over 2.5 %58%52%64%
Over 3.5 %28%28%28%
Scored1.481.761.20
Conceded1.401.241.56
BTTS42%36%48%
Clean Sheet30%40%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Mārupe
Mārupe
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLW1.34
HomeWLWLL1.64
AwayLLDLW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%48%32%
AVG goals2.542.202.88
Over 1.5 %64%64%64%
Over 2.5 %52%44%60%
Over 3.5 %24%12%36%
Scored1.061.160.96
Conceded1.481.041.92
BTTS48%44%52%
Clean Sheet26%36%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS515
100%
3.0
163+13
3.8
100%
100%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.20.6
-
2Metta / LUMetta / LU513
80%
2.6
293+26
6.4
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0005.80.6
-
3Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK412
100%
3.0
94+5
3.2
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
4JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts511
60%
2.2
104+6
2.8
100%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.8
-
5Riga MarinersRiga Mariners37
67%
2.3
83+5
3.7
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.71.0
-
6SkansteSkanste57
40%
1.4
119+2
4.0
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.8
-
7SmilteneSmiltene56
40%
1.2
914-5
4.6
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.8
-
8MārupeMārupe66
33%
1.0
715-8
3.7
83%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.5
-
9Super Nova 2Super Nova 265
17%
0.8
69-3
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
10Riga FC IIRiga FC II44
25%
1.0
48-4
3.0
100%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
11Tukums IITukums II44
25%
1.0
514-9
4.8
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.23.5
-
12Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II53
20%
0.6
822-14
6.0
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.64.4
-
13JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils41
0%
0.2
38-5
2.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.0
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA50
0%
0.0
312-9
3.0
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.4
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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