Skanste enter the match after a win, yet the model still favours an away win for Metta / LU, citing the visitors’ stronger away form and the home side’s weaker performance at home. The predicted probabilities are 14% for a Skanste win, 18% for a draw and 68% for a Metta / LU victory, so the model_pick is clearly the away win. The expected total of 3.8 goals points to a high-scoring affair, with the most likely total being 3 goals at a 20% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2, a 9% probability that Metta / LU will win by a single goal. Skanste, on home turf, averages 2.6 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against weaker opponents, while Metta / LU, playing away against stronger teams, averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.92 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals (96.8%), Under 7.5 (95.9%), Away +2 handicap (94.5%), Away over 0.5 goals (92.8%), Under 6.5 (90.8%), Over 1.5 (90.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (88.4%) and Draw or Away (85.8%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Skanste win
14.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU win
67.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Skanste
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.63
2.06
1.50
1.29
1.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.80
1.17
1.50
0.75
2.25
vs Weaker (20)
2.05
1.55
2.60
1.50
1.50
1.60
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Metta / LU) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metta / LU
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.2
Avg scored
4.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.77
2.50
1.71
1.75
1.81
vs Stronger (23)
1.96
1.87
2.18
1.82
1.75
1.92
vs Similar (6)
1.50
1.67
1.00
2.00
1.75
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
9.00
0.00
9.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Skanste) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.1%
Under 1.5
9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
73.3%
Under 2.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
52.9%
Under 3.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.0%
No
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.0%
1-3
7.9%
0-2
7.7%
1-1
7.6%
0-3
6.7%
2-2
5.3%
1-4
5.2%
0-1
5.1%
Skanste goals ↓
Metta / LU goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.9%
5.1%
7.7%
6.7%
4.4%
1
1.9%
7.6%
9.0%
7.9%
5.2%
2
1.5%
4.1%
5.3%
4.7%
3.1%
3
0.6%
1.6%
2.1%
1.8%
1.2%
4
0.2%
0.5%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Skanste goals (down), columns = Metta / LU goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Skanste is 1.00 points worse than Metta / LU in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 2.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Skanste is 3.00 goals worse than Metta / LU in terms of goals scored per game (2.83 vs 5.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Skanste is 1.33 goals worse than Metta / LU in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Skanste or Draw
32.3%
Avg Implied -
14%
18%
68%
covers Skanste + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Skanste or Metta / LU
82.0%
Avg Implied -
14%
18%
68%
covers Skanste + Metta / LU
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Metta / LU
85.8%
Avg Implied -
14%
18%
68%
covers Draw + Metta / LU
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Skanste over/under 0.5
Over
69.3%
Under
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 1.5
Over
33.0%
Under
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 2.5
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 0.5
Over
92.8%
Under
7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 1.5
Over
73.9%
Under
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 2.5
Over
49.0%
Under
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 3.5
Over
27.1%
Under
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Skanste, so a minus line means Skanste give that many goals of a start and Metta / LU receive them. At -1, Skanste must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Skanste win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Skanste)
Skanste -2
1.7%
Draw -2
3.9%
Metta / LU +2
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Skanste)
Skanste -1
5.5%
Draw -1
8.7%
Metta / LU +1
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Skanste)
Skanste +1
32.3%
Draw +1
20.3%
Metta / LU -1
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Skanste)
Skanste +2
52.5%
Draw +2
19.4%
Metta / LU -2
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Skanste
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.10
0.94
1.00
0.50
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.90
0.50
0.67
0.25
1.25
vs Weaker (20)
0.90
1.20
1.20
1.20
0.60
1.20
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Metta / LU) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metta / LU
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.87
1.43
1.14
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (23)
0.83
1.00
1.18
1.36
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
6.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Skanste) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Skanste over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Skanste
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
1.12
0.50
0.79
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.90
0.67
0.83
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.15
0.35
1.40
0.30
0.90
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Metta / LU) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metta / LU
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.90
1.07
0.57
1.31
1.19
vs Stronger (23)
1.13
0.87
1.00
0.45
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (6)
1.17
1.17
0.50
1.50
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Skanste) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Skanste over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Leevon / PPK
JDFS Alberts
Riga Mariners
Mārupe
Smiltene
Super Nova 2
Riga FC II
Tukums II
Rīgas FS II
JFK Ventspils
Rēzekne FA