Skanste’s recent 6-2 triumph over Tukums II fuels optimism as the model projects a 54% chance of a home win, a 21% draw and a 25% away victory, with the home side the clear favourite. The expected total of four goals and a 22% probability of six or more suggests a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 2-1, a 8.4% chance. Skanste averages 2.6 goals scored and 1.5 conceded at home against weaker opposition, while Smiltene, playing away against a stronger side, averages only 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (94.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.9%), Over 1.5 (91.7%), Home over 0.5 goals (90.9%), Under 6.5 (88.7%), Home +2 handicap (88.1%), Away over 0.5 goals (80.1%) and Home or Away (79.3%). These picks reflect the expected attacking output and the home side’s advantage.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Skanste win
54.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Smiltene win
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Skanste
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.63
2.06
1.50
1.29
1.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.80
1.17
1.50
0.75
2.25
vs Weaker (20)
2.05
1.55
2.60
1.50
1.50
1.60
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Smiltene
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
2.17
1.69
2.56
1.57
1.71
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
2.50
1.50
3.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (16)
2.00
1.56
2.38
1.50
1.62
1.62
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
3.12
0.50
4.25
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Skanste) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
91.7%
Under 1.5
8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
76.5%
Under 2.5
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
57.0%
Under 3.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
73.6%
No
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.4%
1-1
7.7%
2-2
6.8%
3-1
6.7%
1-2
5.6%
3-2
5.4%
2-0
5.2%
3-0
4.2%
Skanste goals ↓
Smiltene goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.5%
2.2%
2.4%
1.3%
0.5%
1
3.6%
7.7%
5.6%
3.0%
1.2%
2
5.2%
8.4%
6.8%
3.7%
1.5%
3
4.2%
6.7%
5.4%
2.9%
1.2%
4
2.5%
4.0%
3.3%
1.8%
0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Skanste goals (down), columns = Smiltene goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Skanste is 0.67 points better than Smiltene in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Skanste is 1.33 goals better than Smiltene in terms of goals scored per game (2.83 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Skanste is 1.50 goals better than Smiltene in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 3.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Skanste or Draw
75.2%
Avg Implied -
54%
21%
25%
covers Skanste + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Skanste or Smiltene
79.3%
Avg Implied -
54%
21%
25%
covers Skanste + Smiltene
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Smiltene
45.5%
Avg Implied -
54%
21%
25%
covers Draw + Smiltene
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Skanste over/under 0.5
Over
90.9%
Under
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 1.5
Over
69.2%
Under
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 2.5
Over
43.1%
Under
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 3.5
Over
22.2%
Under
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 0.5
Over
80.1%
Under
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5
Over
48.0%
Under
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5
Over
22.1%
Under
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 3.5
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Skanste, so a minus line means Skanste give that many goals of a start and Smiltene receive them. At -1, Skanste must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Skanste win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Skanste)
Skanste -2
18.7%
Draw -2
16.2%
Smiltene +2
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Skanste)
Skanste -1
34.9%
Draw -1
19.6%
Smiltene +1
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Skanste)
Skanste +1
75.2%
Draw +1
12.9%
Smiltene -1
11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Skanste)
Skanste +2
88.1%
Draw +2
7.3%
Smiltene -2
4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Skanste
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.10
0.94
1.00
0.50
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.90
0.50
0.67
0.25
1.25
vs Weaker (20)
0.90
1.20
1.20
1.20
0.60
1.20
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Smiltene
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.07
0.94
1.06
0.57
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.33
0.50
1.75
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.88
1.50
0.62
0.50
1.12
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
1.25
0.25
1.25
0.75
1.25
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Skanste) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Skanste over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Skanste
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
1.12
0.50
0.79
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.90
0.67
0.83
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.15
0.35
1.40
0.30
0.90
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Smiltene
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.10
0.75
1.50
1.00
0.64
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.17
1.00
1.25
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.69
0.88
0.88
1.12
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
1.88
0.25
3.00
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Skanste) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Skanste over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Metta / LU
Leevon / PPK
JDFS Alberts
Riga Mariners
Mārupe
Super Nova 2
Riga FC II
Tukums II
Rīgas FS II
JFK Ventspils
Rēzekne FA