Skanste are the clear favourites, their 82% chance of victory reflecting a strong home form against weaker opposition and a 4.7-goal average that points to a high-scoring affair. The model’s pick is a home win, and the most likely scoreline is 3-1, a 7.9% probability. With 6+ goals expected at 33% the match should see plenty of firepower. Skanste average 2.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded at home, while Tukums II, playing away against a stronger side, only scores 1.07 and concedes 2.87. The suggested selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.1%, Home +2 handicap at 97.6%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.4%, Home over 0.5 goals at 97.3%, Over 1.5 at 95.2%, Home or Draw at 93.1%, and Home +1 handicap at 93.1%. The home win probability is 82%, the draw 11%, and the away win 7%.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on as Skanste secured a 6-2 victory, extending their winning run. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with an 82% probability and the outcome matched the model’s call. Every suggested pick also hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.1%, Home +2 handicap at 97.6%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.4%, Home over 0.5 goals at 97.3%, Over 1.5 at 95.2%, Home or Draw at 93.1%, and Home +1 handicap at 93.1%. The match delivered the expected high-scoring affair, with Skanste’s strong home form and Tukums II’s weaker away performance confirming the model’s assessment.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Skanste win✓ Hit
82.3%
Avg Implied 54.2% · @ 1.67
Edge
+28.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.70
Dafabet
1.70
Betano
1.67
Betfair
1.65
Bet365
1.65
Draw✗ Miss
10.8%
Avg Implied 21.5% · @ 4.21
Edge
-10.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.30
Bet365
4.20
Dafabet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Betano
4.15
Tukums II win✗ Miss
6.9%
Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.73
Edge
-17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.90
1xBet
3.72
Betano
3.70
Bet365
3.70
Dafabet
3.65
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Skanste
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.60
1.80
1.47
1.20
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.80
1.17
1.50
0.75
2.25
vs Weaker (20)
1.75
1.50
2.22
1.44
1.36
1.55
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
3.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
2.47
1.73
2.07
1.07
2.87
vs Stronger (30)
1.40
2.47
1.73
2.07
1.07
2.87
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Skanste) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (33%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
95.2%
@ 1.06+7.6%
Under 1.5
4.8%
@ 7.50-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.06
Under
1xBet
7.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
84.9%
@ 1.32+14.5%
Under 2.5
15.1%
@ 3.15-14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.29
Under
1xBet
3.30
Bet365
3.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
69.2%
@ 1.79+18.0%
Under 3.5
30.8%
@ 1.88-18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Under
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.85
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.5%
@ 1.38-1.9%
No
34.5%
@ 2.85+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.38
No
1xBet
2.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-1
7.9%@ 10.67+3.9%
3-0
7.1%@ 13.67+4.0%
4-1
7.1%@ 17.00+4.6%
2-1
6.5%@ 8.67+1.7%
4-0
6.4%@ 21.67+4.5%
2-0
5.9%@ 11.33+2.2%
5-1
5.1%@ 34.00+3.9%
5-0
4.6%@ 50.67+3.8%
Skanste goals ↓
Tukums II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
1
2.9%
4.0%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
2
5.9%
6.5%
3.6%
1.3%
0.4%
3
7.1%
7.9%
4.3%
1.6%
0.4%
4
6.4%
7.1%
3.9%
1.4%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Skanste goals (down), columns = Tukums II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Skanste is 0.87 points better than Tukums II in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Skanste is 1.43 goals better than Tukums II in terms of goals scored per game (2.83 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Skanste is 2.17 goals better than Tukums II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 4.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Skanste or Draw✓ Hit
93.1%
Avg Implied 76.0% · @ 1.22
Edge
+17.1%
82%
11%
7%
covers Skanste + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Betfair
1.20
Skanste or Tukums II✓ Hit
89.2%
Avg Implied 78.5% · @ 1.18
Edge
+10.6%
82%
11%
7%
covers Skanste + Tukums II
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Draw or Tukums II✗ Miss
17.7%
Avg Implied 45.5% · @ 2.04
Edge
-27.8%
82%
11%
7%
covers Draw + Tukums II
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.06
Betano
1.95
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Skanste over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
97.3%
@ 1.06+9.7%
Under
2.7%
@ 7.50-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.06
Under
1xBet
7.50
Skanste over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
87.5%
@ 1.43+23.0%
Under
12.5%
@ 2.60-23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.43
Under
1xBet
2.60
Skanste over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
69.8%
@ 2.36+30.7%
Under
30.2%
@ 1.52-30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.36
Under
1xBet
1.52
Skanste over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
48.6%
@ 4.10+26.3%
Under
51.4%
@ 1.18-26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.10
Under
1xBet
1.18
Tukums II over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.0%
@ 1.23-8.6%
Under
33.0%
@ 3.80+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.23
Under
1xBet
3.80
Tukums II over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
30.4%
@ 2.10-13.6%
Under
69.6%
@ 1.65+13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.65
Tukums II over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.1%
@ 4.60-9.9%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.15+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.60
Under
1xBet
1.15
Tukums II over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Skanste, so a minus line means Skanste give that many goals of a start and Tukums II receive them. At -1, Skanste must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Skanste win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Skanste)Actual: Skanste
Skanste -2
48.2%
Draw -2
18.7%
Tukums II +2
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Skanste)Actual: Skanste
Skanste -1
66.9%
@ 2.60+33.0%
Draw -1
15.4%
@ 4.00-6.6%
Tukums II +1
17.7%
@ 2.00-26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.60
Draw
Betfair
4.00
Away
Betfair
2.00
Handicap +1 (Skanste)Actual: Skanste
Skanste +1
93.1%
Draw +1
4.5%
Tukums II -1
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Skanste)Actual: Skanste
Skanste +2
97.6%
Draw +2
1.8%
Tukums II -2
0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Skanste
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.03
0.67
0.93
0.47
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.90
0.50
0.67
0.25
1.25
vs Weaker (20)
0.65
1.10
0.78
1.11
0.55
1.09
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.07
0.80
0.80
0.53
1.33
vs Stronger (30)
0.67
1.07
0.80
0.80
0.53
1.33
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Skanste) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.4%
@ 1.16-2.7%
Under 0.5
22.6%
@ 4.65+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Under
Betfair
4.80
1xBet
4.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
47.3%
@ 1.84-2.0%
Under 1.5
52.7%
@ 1.79+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Betfair
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Under
Betfair
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.70
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
19.4%
@ 3.88-4.4%
Under 2.5
80.6%
@ 1.21+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.75
Under
1xBet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Skanste over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
67.3%
@ 1.46+5.1%
Under
32.7%
@ 2.40-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.46
Under
1xBet
2.40
Skanste over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
28.8%
@ 3.15-0.3%
Under
71.2%
@ 1.29+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.15
Under
1xBet
1.29
Skanste over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
7.7%
@ 7.85-4.1%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.05+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.85
Under
1xBet
1.05
Tukums II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
36.8%
@ 1.94-10.9%
Under
63.2%
@ 1.77+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.94
Under
1xBet
1.77
Tukums II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
11.3%
@ 5.25-6.1%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.11+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.25
Under
1xBet
1.11
Tukums II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 11.00-7.4%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.01+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Skanste
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.57
1.13
0.53
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.90
0.67
0.83
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.10
0.40
1.44
0.33
0.82
0.45
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.40
0.93
1.27
0.53
1.53
vs Stronger (30)
0.73
1.40
0.93
1.27
0.53
1.53
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Skanste) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
85.0%
@ 1.08-0.6%
Under 0.5
15.0%
@ 6.40+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.08
Under
1xBet
6.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
62.4%
@ 1.52+1.6%
Under 1.5
37.6%
@ 2.36-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.52
Under
1xBet
2.36
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
35.1%
@ 2.50-1.7%
Under 2.5
64.9%
@ 1.46+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.50
Under
1xBet
1.46
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Skanste over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
71.9%
@ 1.32+3.0%
Under
28.1%
@ 2.92-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.32
Under
1xBet
2.92
Skanste over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
35.0%
@ 2.46-1.9%
Under
65.0%
@ 1.44+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.46
Under
1xBet
1.44
Skanste over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.5%
@ 5.85+0.7%
Under
83.5%
@ 1.10-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.85
Under
1xBet
1.10
Tukums II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
42.1%
@ 1.65-13.5%
Under
57.9%
@ 2.06+13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.65
Under
1xBet
2.06
Tukums II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.2%
@ 4.00-11.7%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.19+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.00
Under
1xBet
1.19
Tukums II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 9.10-8.2%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.03+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.10
Under
1xBet
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
-
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
97.3%
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
-
+9.7%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
95.2%
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
-
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
93.1%
1.22
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Betfair
1.20
-
-
+17.1%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
92.3%
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.1%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
89.9%
1.15
1xBet
1.15
-
-
-
-
+9.9%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
89.2%
1.18
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
-
-
+10.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.8%
1.19
1xBet
1.19
-
-
-
-
+11.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.7%
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
-
-
-
+6.1%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
85.0%
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
-
-
-
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
84.9%
1.32
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
+14.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
83.5%
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-
-
-
-
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
80.6%
1.21
1xBet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
-
-
-
+4.4%
✗ Miss
Under 6.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
77.4%
1.16
1xBet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
-
-
-
-2.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals
71.9%
1.32
1xBet
1.32
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
71.2%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+0.3%
✗ Miss
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Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →