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Skenderbeu Korce vs AF Elbasani Prediction & Stats

Date: 17/10/2026
Time: 15:00
Skenderbeu Korce
Skenderbeu Korce
Vs
34%
29%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
Albania: Superliga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Skenderbeu Korce and AF Elbasani face a finely balanced clash, with the model favouring a home win. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely score is 1-1, a 13.3% chance. Skenderbeu’s home form shows they average 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded against similar opposition, while AF Elbasani’s away record against comparable teams yields 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. The probability spread is 37% for a Skenderbeu victory, 28% for a draw, and 35% for an Elbasani win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.7%), Under 5.5 (94.0%), Under 4.5 (85.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (84.7%), and Home +2 handicap (83.8%). All selections carry their stated probabilities, and no other outcomes are highlighted.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Skenderbeu Korce win
33.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani win
37.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Skenderbeu KorceSkenderbeu Korce

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D10W10W10W40W11D01L22D01LA·APO14/03H·KOR18/03A·BES22/03H·ILI04/04A·BUR11/04H·KAS19/04A·POG25/04H·LAC04/05A·VLL21/08H·DIN31/08← 1st DivisionSuperliga →
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.700.901.800.931.600.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.111.220.501.001.601.40
vs Weaker (21)1.950.762.270.911.600.60
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W31W24L12L13L04L30W21W11D11DA·TEU18/04H·VLL27/04A·VOR02/05A·BYL06/05H·TIR10/05H·EGN17/05H·DIN24/05A·VLL31/05A·LAC22/08H·VLL29/08
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.271.400.931.401.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.401.271.400.931.401.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Skenderbeu Korce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.4%
Under 1.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.0%
Under 2.5
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.2%
Under 3.5
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
0-0
8.7%
0-1
8.7%
1-2
8.4%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
7.9%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
5.9%
Skenderbeu Korce goals ↓
AF Elbasani goals →
01234
08.7%8.7%6.7%3.0%1.0%
18.2%14%8.4%3.7%1.2%
25.9%7.9%5.3%2.3%0.8%
32.5%3.3%2.2%1.0%0.3%
40.8%1.0%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Skenderbeu Korce goals (down), columns = AF Elbasani goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Partizani
1.33
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Skenderbeu Korce
1.17
Laci
1.09
Skenderbeu Korce is 0.58 points worse than AF Elbasani in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.74).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Vora
1.08
Partizani
1.06
Tirana
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
0.91
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Laci
0.85
Skenderbeu Korce is 0.45 goals worse than AF Elbasani in terms of goals scored per game (0.91 vs 1.36).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Skenderbeu Korce
1.21
Tirana
1.28
Laci
1.29
Partizani
1.33
Skenderbeu Korce is 0.13 goals worse than AF Elbasani in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.08).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Skenderbeu Korce or Draw
62.7%
Avg Implied -
34%
29%
37%
covers Skenderbeu Korce + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce or AF Elbasani
71.1%
Avg Implied -
34%
29%
37%
covers Skenderbeu Korce + AF Elbasani
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or AF Elbasani
66.2%
Avg Implied -
34%
29%
37%
covers Draw + AF Elbasani
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 0.5
Over
71.6%
Under
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 1.5
Over
35.8%
Under
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 2.5
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 3.5
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5
Over
73.7%
Under
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5
Over
38.5%
Under
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Skenderbeu Korce, so a minus line means Skenderbeu Korce give that many goals of a start and AF Elbasani receive them. At -1, Skenderbeu Korce must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Skenderbeu Korce win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Skenderbeu Korce)
Skenderbeu Korce -2
5.1%
Draw -2
10.0%
AF Elbasani +2
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Skenderbeu Korce)
Skenderbeu Korce -1
15.1%
Draw -1
18.6%
AF Elbasani +1
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Skenderbeu Korce)
Skenderbeu Korce +1
62.7%
Draw +1
19.8%
AF Elbasani -1
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Skenderbeu Korce)
Skenderbeu Korce +2
82.5%
Draw +2
11.3%
AF Elbasani -2
6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Skenderbeu KorceSkenderbeu Korce

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D00D00D20W10W00D00D00DA·APO14/03H·KOR18/03A·BES22/03H·ILI04/04A·BUR11/04H·KAS19/04A·POG25/04H·LAC04/05A·VLL21/08H·DIN31/08← 1st DivisionSuperliga →
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.400.800.330.530.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.220.330.250.000.200.60
vs Weaker (21)0.860.431.000.450.700.40
Clean sheet %77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W01L00D01L03L30W00D00D01LA·TEU18/04H·VLL27/04A·VOR02/05A·BYL06/05H·TIR10/05H·EGN17/05H·DIN24/05A·VLL31/05A·LAC22/08H·VLL29/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.430.530.400.400.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.470.430.530.400.400.47
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Skenderbeu Korce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Skenderbeu KorceSkenderbeu Korce

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D10W10W10W20W01L01L22D01LA·APO14/03H·KOR18/03A·BES22/03H·ILI04/04A·BUR11/04H·KAS19/04A·POG25/04H·LAC04/05A·VLL21/08H·DIN31/08← 1st DivisionSuperliga →
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.501.000.601.070.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.890.890.251.001.400.80
vs Weaker (21)1.100.331.270.450.900.20
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W11D23L12L12L01L00D21W11D10WA·TEU18/04H·VLL27/04A·VOR02/05A·BYL06/05H·TIR10/05H·EGN17/05H·DIN24/05A·VLL31/05A·LAC22/08H·VLL29/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.830.870.531.001.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.930.830.870.531.001.13
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Skenderbeu Korce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.5%-------
Under 6.598.3%-------
Home under 3.5 goals96.1%-------
Away under 3.5 goals95.3%-------
Under 5.595.2%-------
Under 4.587.9%-------
Home under 2.5 goals86.7%-------
Away under 2.5 goals84.9%-------
Away +2 handicap84.9%-------
Home +2 handicap82.5%-------
Over 1.574.4%-------
Under 3.573.8%-------
Away over 0.5 goals73.7%-------
Home over 0.5 goals71.6%-------
Home or Away71.1%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
VOR (25)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
Skenderbeu Korce's squad is €1m less valuable than AF Elbasani's (€4m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
Skenderbeu Korce and AF Elbasani have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
Skenderbeu Korce and AF Elbasani have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
VOR (11)
€1m
Skenderbeu Korce and AF Elbasani have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
SK wins
3
Draws
1
AE wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Skenderbeu Korce vs AF Elbasani · H/A from SK
DateH/AGameScore
06/03/25AAF Elbasani Vs SK0-0
20/12/24HSK Vs AF Elbasani0-2
26/10/24AAF Elbasani Vs SK1-1
19/08/24HSK Vs AF Elbasani1-1

Skenderbeu KorceSkenderbeu Korce

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/08/26HSK Vs Dinamo Tirana0-1
21/08/26AVllaznia Shkodër Vs SK2-2
04/05/26HSK Vs Laci0-1
25/04/26APogradeci Vs SK1-1
19/04/26HSK Vs Kastrioti Krujë4-0
11/04/26ABurreli Vs SK0-1
04/04/26HSK Vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë1-0
22/03/26ABesa Kavajë Vs SK0-1
18/03/26HSK Vs Korabi Peshkopi0-0
14/03/26AApolonia Fier Vs SK0-1

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HAE Vs Vllaznia Shkodër1-1
22/08/26ALaci Vs AE1-1
31/05/26AVllaznia Shkodër Vs AE1-2
24/05/26HAE Vs Dinamo Tirana3-0
17/05/26HAE Vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë0-4
10/05/26HAE Vs Tirana1-3
06/05/26ABylis Vs AE2-1
02/05/26AVora Vs AE4-2
27/04/26HAE Vs Vllaznia Shkodër3-1
18/04/26ATeuta Durrës Vs AE1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Skenderbeu Korce
Skenderbeu Korce
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLDL2.00
HomeDWWLL2.04
AwayWWWDD1.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%64%56%
AVG goals2.382.642.12
Over 1.5 %64%72%56%
Over 2.5 %46%52%40%
Over 3.5 %18%20%16%
Scored1.541.721.36
Conceded0.840.920.76
BTTS46%48%44%
Clean Sheet44%40%48%
Corners---
Cards---
AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDD1.72
HomeWLLWD1.88
AwayWLLWD1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%50%42%
AVG goals2.262.002.54
Over 1.5 %66%65%67%
Over 2.5 %44%38%50%
Over 3.5 %18%12%25%
Scored1.261.231.29
Conceded1.000.771.25
BTTS56%50%62%
Clean Sheet38%46%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë26
100%
3.0
61+5
3.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2133.00.5
-
2Teuta DurrësTeuta Durrës24
50%
2.0
31+2
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.50.5
-
3LaciLaci24
50%
2.0
32+1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.0
-
4Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana23
50%
1.5
11+0
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3220.50.5
-
5VoraVora23
50%
1.5
23-1
2.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.01.5
-
6Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër22
0%
1.0
33+0
3.0
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1131.51.5
-
7AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.0
-
8Skenderbeu KorceSkenderbeu Korce21
0%
0.5
23-1
2.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.01.5
-
9PartizaniPartizani21
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.51.0
-
10TiranaTirana20
0%
0.0
16-5
3.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.53.0
-
Albania: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →

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