Skenderbeu Korce vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë Result & Analysis

Skenderbeu Korce will face a tough test at home as the model predicts an away win for Egnatia Rrogozhinë, with a 55% chance of victory, a 27% draw probability and an 18% chance of a home win. The expected total goals hover around 2.4, centring on a 2-goal outcome that is the most likely total. The single most probable scoreline is 0-1, with a 13.2% probability, underscoring the narrow margin the model sees. Skenderbeu’s home form shows an average of 1.07 goals scored and 1.6 conceded against similar opposition, while Egnatia’s away record is stronger, averaging 1.33 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded. The model’s selections include an Under 3.5 with 77.4% confidence and an Over 1.5 with 70.8% confidence. The match is expected to be a low-scoring affair, with the away side’s defensive solidity giving them a decisive edge.

The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away win at 55%, failed to materialise. Skenderbeu Korce edged Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1-0, a home win that snapped the away side’s unbeaten streak and left the model’s call wrong. The model’s other selections performed mixedly: Under 3.5 goals, with a 77.4% probability, hit, while Over 1.5, at 70.8%, missed. The final score of 1-0 also matched the model’s most likely total of 2 goals, though the exact scoreline was 0-1 for the favourite. Skenderbeu’s recent form, coming off a defeat, proved resilient, whereas Egnatia’s strong away run could not sustain the predicted outcome.