Skenderbeu Korce face Tirana in a match that feels almost evenly split, with the model favouring a home win at 40 % versus a 29 % chance of a draw and 31 % for an away victory. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.7 % probability. Skenderbeu’s home form shows they average 0.75 goals scored and conceded against similar opponents, while Tirana, on the road, averages 1.07 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5 %), Under 6.5 (98.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (96.6 %), Under 5.5 (95.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.6 %), Away under 2.5 goals (88.0 %), Under 4.5 (87.7 %) and Home +2 handicap (86.6 %). Skenderbeu’s recent draw and Tirana’s recent defeat add intrigue, but the odds remain finely balanced.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Skenderbeu Korce win
39.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tirana win
31.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Skenderbeu Korce
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.90
1.80
0.93
1.60
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.11
1.22
0.50
1.00
1.60
1.40
vs Weaker (21)
1.95
0.76
2.27
0.91
1.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tirana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.37
0.93
1.13
1.07
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.00
1.37
0.93
1.13
1.07
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Skenderbeu Korce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.1%
Under 2.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.7%
Under 3.5
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.4%
No
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
9.5%
0-0
9.3%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
8.2%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.3%
0-2
5.6%
Skenderbeu Korce goals ↓
Tirana goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
8.2%
5.6%
2.2%
0.6%
1
9.5%
14%
7.5%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.3%
8.5%
5.0%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.3%
3.8%
2.3%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.1%
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Skenderbeu Korce goals (down), columns = Tirana goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Partizani
1.33
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Skenderbeu Korce
1.17
Laci
1.09
Skenderbeu Korce is 0.06 points worse than Tirana in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Vora
1.08
Partizani
1.06
Tirana
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
0.91
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Laci
0.85
Skenderbeu Korce is 0.09 goals worse than Tirana in terms of goals scored per game (0.91 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Skenderbeu Korce
1.21
Tirana
1.28
Laci
1.29
Partizani
1.33
Skenderbeu Korce is 0.07 goals better than Tirana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Skenderbeu Korce or Draw
68.6%
Avg Implied -
39%
29%
31%
covers Skenderbeu Korce + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce or Tirana
70.7%
Avg Implied -
39%
29%
31%
covers Skenderbeu Korce + Tirana
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tirana
60.7%
Avg Implied -
39%
29%
31%
covers Draw + Tirana
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 0.5
Over
73.9%
Under
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 1.5
Over
38.9%
Under
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 2.5
Over
15.3%
Under
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 3.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 0.5
Over
69.2%
Under
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 1.5
Over
32.9%
Under
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 2.5
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Skenderbeu Korce, so a minus line means Skenderbeu Korce give that many goals of a start and Tirana receive them. At -1, Skenderbeu Korce must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Skenderbeu Korce win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Skenderbeu Korce)
Skenderbeu Korce -2
6.7%
Draw -2
11.9%
Tirana +2
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Skenderbeu Korce)
Skenderbeu Korce -1
18.7%
Draw -1
20.7%
Tirana +1
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Skenderbeu Korce)
Skenderbeu Korce +1
68.6%
Draw +1
17.9%
Tirana -1
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Skenderbeu Korce)
Skenderbeu Korce +2
86.5%
Draw +2
9.1%
Tirana -2
4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Skenderbeu Korce
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.40
0.80
0.33
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.22
0.33
0.25
0.00
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (21)
0.86
0.43
1.00
0.45
0.70
0.40
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tirana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.33
0.67
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.40
0.70
0.33
0.67
0.47
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Skenderbeu Korce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.6%
Under 0.5
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
29.4%
Under 1.5
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.2%
Under 2.5
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.5%
Under
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.8%
Under
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Skenderbeu Korce
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.50
1.00
0.60
1.07
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.89
0.25
1.00
1.40
0.80
vs Weaker (21)
1.10
0.33
1.27
0.45
0.90
0.20
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tirana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.60
0.47
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.60
0.67
0.60
0.47
0.60
0.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Skenderbeu Korce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.1%
Under 0.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.5%
Under 1.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.4%
Under 2.5
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.0%
Under
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.8%
Under
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.4%
Under
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tirana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
VOR (25)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
Skenderbeu Korce's squad is €1m less valuable than Tirana's (€4m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
Skenderbeu Korce and Tirana have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
Skenderbeu Korce and Tirana have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
VOR (11)
€1m
Skenderbeu Korce and Tirana have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Albania: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Teuta Durrës
Laci
Dinamo Tirana
Vora
Vllaznia Shkodër
AF Elbasani
Partizani