SKN ST. Polten’s recent win and a strong home scoring rate of 2.0 goals per match suggest a high-scoring outing, while SV Kapfenberg’s 1.0 goal average away hints at a defensive stalemate. The model projects a 43% chance of a home win, 23% for a draw, and 34% for an away victory, making a home win the favoured result. The expected total of 3.6 goals points to an open game, with the most likely total being 3 goals at a 21% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.5% chance. Home side SKN ST. Polten will likely score 2.0 goals and concede 2.5, whereas away side SV Kapfenberg will score 1.0 and concede 2.5 against a similar-strength opponent. The model’s selections include Over 8.5 corners (96%), Over 19.5 fouls (95.8%), Over 2.5 cards (93%), Over 9.5 corners (92.6%), Over 21.5 fouls (90.6%), Over 1.5 goals (88.6%) which hit, Over 10.5 corners (87.6%), and Over 3.5 cards (83.3%).
Results analysis
The win extends SKN ST. Polten’s recent form, giving the home side a bright start to the season. The model’s pre-match favourite was a home win at 43%, and it proved correct as the final score was 2-0, a home victory. The model also selected Over 1.5 goals with an 88.6% probability, and that pick hit. All other suggested picks were listed; each was settled, with the Over 1.5 selection achieving its result. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 did not materialise, but the overall outcome matched the model’s expectations. The match confirmed the model’s accuracy in both the result and the selected outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
SKN ST. Polten win✓ Hit
43.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg win✗ Miss
33.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SKN ST. Polten
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.50
1.75
2.00
2.50
3.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
2.50
1.75
2.00
2.50
3.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
25% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SV Kapfenberg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
2.75
0.50
3.00
1.00
2.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.75
2.75
0.50
3.00
1.00
2.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-26pp vs league)
This opponent (SKN ST. Polten) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.6%
Under 1.5
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
70.3%
Under 2.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.2%
Under 3.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
70.8%
No
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.5%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
7.4%
2-2
7.1%
3-1
5.4%
2-0 ✓
4.9%
3-2
4.6%
1-0
4.2%
SKN ST. Polten goals ↓
SV Kapfenberg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.5%
3.6%
3.8%
2.2%
0.9%
1
4.2%
9.5%
7.4%
4.2%
1.8%
2
4.9%
8.4%
7.1%
4.0%
1.7%
3
3.2%
5.4%
4.6%
2.6%
1.1%
4
1.5%
2.6%
2.2%
1.3%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SKN ST. Polten goals (down), columns = SV Kapfenberg goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC BW Linz
2.03
Grazer AK
2.00
SKN ST. Polten
1.87
SV Horn
1.60
SKU Amstetten
1.50
Floridsdorfer AC
1.50
First Vienna
1.43
SV Lafnitz
1.37
FC Liefering
1.23
Admira Wacker
1.20
Dornbirn
1.17
Sturm Graz II
1.13
SV Kapfenberg
1.13
SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.07
Rapid Wien II
1.00
Austria Vienna (Am)
0.97
SKN ST. Polten is 0.73 points better than SV Kapfenberg in terms of average points per game (1.87 vs 1.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC BW Linz
2.10
Grazer AK
1.73
FC Liefering
1.73
SKN ST. Polten
1.70
SKU Amstetten
1.63
SV Lafnitz
1.60
Sturm Graz II
1.43
Dornbirn
1.43
Floridsdorfer AC
1.37
SV Kapfenberg
1.33
Admira Wacker
1.30
SV Horn
1.27
SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.20
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.13
First Vienna
1.13
Rapid Wien II
1.10
SKN ST. Polten is 0.37 goals better than SV Kapfenberg in terms of goals scored per game (1.70 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SKN ST. Polten
0.90
FC BW Linz
0.90
Grazer AK
0.97
Floridsdorfer AC
1.00
First Vienna
1.10
SV Horn
1.10
Admira Wacker
1.40
Dornbirn
1.47
SV Lafnitz
1.53
SKU Amstetten
1.63
SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.80
FC Liefering
1.80
Rapid Wien II
1.83
Sturm Graz II
1.87
SV Kapfenberg
1.87
Austria Vienna (Am)
2.03
SKN ST. Polten is 0.97 goals better than SV Kapfenberg in terms of goals conceded per game (0.90 vs 1.87).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Liefering
54%
SKN ST. Polten
53%
FC BW Linz
53%
Floridsdorfer AC
52%
Grazer AK
52%
First Vienna
51%
SV Horn
51%
SV Lafnitz
51%
Austria Vienna (Am)
50%
SKU Amstetten
49%
Rapid Wien II
49%
Admira Wacker
49%
SK Vorwarts Steyr
47%
Dornbirn
47%
SV Kapfenberg
41%
SKN ST. Polten is 11.7 percentage points better than SV Kapfenberg in terms of average possession (53% vs 41%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SKN ST. Polten
For 10.0 · Against 4.5 · Total 14.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 10.0 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SV Kapfenberg
For 3.5 · Against 6.5 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 13.0 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SKN ST. Polten
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (4)
14.5
18.0
11.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
24.0
24.0
24.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
14.5
18.0
11.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
24.0
24.0
24.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
100%
50%
50%
50%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
0%
0%
0%
50%
50%
50%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SV Kapfenberg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (4)
10.0
9.0
11.0
4.8
5.0
4.5
26.5
37.0
16.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
10.0
9.0
11.0
4.8
5.0
4.5
26.5
37.0
16.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
25%
0%
50%
50%
50%
50%
75%
100%
50%
% under line
75%
100%
50%
50%
50%
50%
25%
0%
50%
This opponent (SKN ST. Polten) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dornbirn
14.8
SKN ST. Polten
14.5
Grazer AK
10.8
SV Horn
10.3
SV Kapfenberg
10.0
SK Vorwarts Steyr
10.0
Austria Vienna (Am)
9.5
FC BW Linz
9.3
Admira Wacker
9.2
Rapid Wien II
9.0
SKU Amstetten
8.8
FC Liefering
8.7
SV Lafnitz
8.7
Floridsdorfer AC
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SV Horn
6.0
SV Lafnitz
5.3
Dornbirn
5.0
SV Kapfenberg
4.8
Floridsdorfer AC
4.3
SK Vorwarts Steyr
4.2
Admira Wacker
4.2
SKN ST. Polten
4.0
Rapid Wien II
4.0
Grazer AK
3.8
Austria Vienna (Am)
3.8
FC BW Linz
3.7
FC Liefering
3.3
SKU Amstetten
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Horn
32.0
Floridsdorfer AC
31.0
FC BW Linz
29.7
Grazer AK
28.0
SV Lafnitz
27.0
SV Kapfenberg
26.5
SKN ST. Polten
24.0
Dornbirn
23.8
Austria Vienna (Am)
22.0
FC Liefering
21.7
SK Vorwarts Steyr
21.5
Rapid Wien II
20.3
Admira Wacker
19.8
SKU Amstetten
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
92.6%
Under 9.5
7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
83.3%
Under 3.5
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
90.6%
Under 21.5
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SKN ST. Polten
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SV Kapfenberg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.50
0.50
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.50
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
75% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (SKN ST. Polten) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SKN ST. Polten
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.25
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.50
1.25
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SV Kapfenberg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
2.00
0.50
1.50
0.50
2.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.50
2.00
0.50
1.50
0.50
2.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-26pp vs league)
This opponent (SKN ST. Polten) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 8.5 corners
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 9.5 corners
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 10.5 corners
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 11.5 corners
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GA (23)
€9m
FL (17)
€5m
FBL (21)
€5m
FV (24)
€5m
AV( (23)
€5m
SSP (20)
€4m
AW (23)
€4m
RWI (24)
€4m
SGI (22)
€4m
SA (20)
€3m
FA (19)
€3m
SK (23)
€3m
SKN ST. Polten's squad is €2m more valuable than SV Kapfenberg's (€4m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (4)
€3m
GA (7)
€2m
RWI (12)
€2m
FBL (9)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
AV( (7)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
SGI (7)
€1m
FV (7)
€1m
SA (7)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (7)
€1m
SKN ST. Polten and SV Kapfenberg have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (8)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
FBL (4)
€1m
FL (6)
€1m
GA (3)
€1m
FA (5)
€1m
AV( (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
SGI (6)
€1m
SA (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
RWI (4)
€1m
SKN ST. Polten and SV Kapfenberg have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GA (13)
€6m
AV( (11)
€2m
FBL (8)
€2m
AW (11)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
SGI (9)
€2m
FL (7)
€2m
SSP (8)
€1m
RWI (8)
€1m
SA (8)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (10)
€1m
SKN ST. Polten and SV Kapfenberg have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Austria: 2. Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: 2. Liga stats & trends →