SKN ST. Polten are tipped to win at home, a 61% chance that tops the 22% draw and 17% away win odds. The model expects a lively 3.1-goal affair, with the most likely total of two goals at 23%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.5% probability, while the 2-0 and 2-1 outcomes each sit at 9.9%. Polten’s home form shows they average 2.45 goals scored and 1.09 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Kapfenberg, playing away, averages 1.15 scored and 1.23 conceded. Suggested picks include an 89.3% chance of over 2.5 cards, an 82.2% hit for over 1.5 goals, a 76.8% probability of under 25.5 fouls, 76.4% for over 3.5 cards, 70.7% for over 8.5 corners and 70.4% for over 19.5 fouls. Polten’s recent win after a four-game slump and Kapfenberg’s win after a similar run add intrigue to this encounter.
Results analysis
The win for SKN ST. Polten extends their recent run, as they come off a 1-0 victory over Austria Salzburg. The model’s favourite, a home win, proved correct with a 2-1 result, matching the actual outcome. The pre-match probability for the favourite was 61 percent. The model also selected Over 1.5 goals, a pick with an 82.2 percent chance that hit. The most likely scoreline of 2-0 or 2-1 was indeed achieved, with the 2-1 score confirming the model’s overall accuracy. The match delivered the predicted home triumph and a goal tally that satisfied the over-1.5 selection.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
SKN ST. Polten win✓ Hit
61.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg win✗ Miss
16.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SKN ST. Polten
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
1.17
2.43
1.14
2.00
1.19
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
2.08
1.16
2.45
1.09
1.79
1.21
vs Weaker (4)
3.50
1.25
3.50
1.50
3.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SV Kapfenberg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.60
2.50
1.71
1.19
1.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
2.67
2.00
1.00
1.00
3.50
vs Similar (26)
1.85
1.50
2.54
1.77
1.15
1.23
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (SKN ST. Polten) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.2%
Under 1.5
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.5%
Under 2.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.1%
Under 3.5
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.4%
No
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
2-1 ✓
9.9%
2-0
9.9%
1-0
8.6%
3-1
6.9%
3-0
6.8%
0-0
5.5%
2-2
5.0%
SKN ST. Polten goals ↓
SV Kapfenberg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
3.7%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
1
8.6%
11%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
2
9.9%
9.9%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
3
6.8%
6.9%
3.5%
1.2%
0.3%
4
3.6%
3.6%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SKN ST. Polten goals (down), columns = SV Kapfenberg goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
SKN ST. Polten
1.93
Austria Lustenau
1.90
Admira Wacker
1.76
Floridsdorfer AC
1.71
FC Liefering
1.66
SKU Amstetten
1.57
First Vienna
1.48
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.38
Austria Salzburg
1.32
Austria Klagenfurt
1.24
Rapid Wien II
1.21
WSPG Wels
1.14
SV Kapfenberg
1.07
Stripfing
0.83
Sturm Graz II
0.76
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
0.66
SKN ST. Polten is 0.86 points better than SV Kapfenberg in terms of average points per game (1.93 vs 1.07).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Admira Wacker
1.76
SKN ST. Polten
1.62
FC Liefering
1.62
Floridsdorfer AC
1.50
Austria Lustenau
1.48
SKU Amstetten
1.46
WSPG Wels
1.34
Stripfing
1.33
Austria Salzburg
1.29
Rapid Wien II
1.28
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.24
Austria Klagenfurt
1.17
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.17
SV Kapfenberg
1.10
First Vienna
1.10
Sturm Graz II
1.00
SKN ST. Polten is 0.52 goals better than SV Kapfenberg in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 1.10).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Floridsdorfer AC
0.64
First Vienna
0.86
SKN ST. Polten
0.93
Austria Lustenau
1.00
Admira Wacker
1.00
SKU Amstetten
1.21
Austria Salzburg
1.32
WSPG Wels
1.41
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.41
FC Liefering
1.41
Austria Klagenfurt
1.52
Rapid Wien II
1.55
Sturm Graz II
1.69
SV Kapfenberg
1.83
Stripfing
1.92
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
2.07
SKN ST. Polten is 0.90 goals better than SV Kapfenberg in terms of goals conceded per game (0.93 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Liefering
53%
Austria Lustenau
47%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SKN ST. Polten
For 7.6 · Against 5.1 · Total 12.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 9.7 · Total 19.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SV Kapfenberg
For 4.0 · Against 5.8 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 10.2 · Total 21.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SKN ST. Polten
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.1
10.6
2.7
2.3
3.1
22.2
20.6
23.6
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (41)
10.8
11.1
10.6
3.3
2.9
3.6
22.2
20.6
23.6
vs Weaker (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
58%
55%
62%
34%
33%
35%
50%
36%
62%
% under line
42%
45%
38%
66%
67%
65%
50%
64%
38%
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SV Kapfenberg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.5
10.8
3.2
3.4
3.0
24.3
24.5
24.1
vs Stronger (7)
10.6
12.7
7.5
3.1
4.7
2.0
22.4
23.0
21.5
vs Similar (41)
10.0
8.6
11.4
3.4
3.2
3.5
24.8
24.9
24.6
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
48%
46%
50%
46%
50%
42%
68%
77%
58%
% under line
52%
54%
50%
54%
50%
58%
32%
23%
42%
This opponent (SKN ST. Polten) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
SKN ST. Polten
10.6
Austria Vienna (Am)
10.5
FC Liefering
10.3
SV Kapfenberg
10.3
SKU Amstetten
10.2
First Vienna
10.1
Floridsdorfer AC
10.0
Rapid Wien II
9.7
Austria Klagenfurt
9.4
Austria Lustenau
9.3
Admira Wacker
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SV Kapfenberg
6.5
SKN ST. Polten
5.5
Floridsdorfer AC
5.4
SKU Amstetten
5.3
Austria Klagenfurt
5.1
Austria Lustenau
5.0
First Vienna
5.0
FC Liefering
4.9
Admira Wacker
4.7
Austria Vienna (Am)
4.3
Rapid Wien II
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
First Vienna
26.4
Floridsdorfer AC
26.0
Austria Vienna (Am)
25.2
FC Liefering
25.1
SV Kapfenberg
24.1
SKU Amstetten
23.8
Rapid Wien II
23.8
Austria Lustenau
23.3
Admira Wacker
23.3
SKN ST. Polten
22.5
Austria Klagenfurt
22.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
58.7%
Under 9.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
76.4%
Under 3.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
54.0%
Under 21.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SKN ST. Polten
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.37
0.86
0.36
0.88
0.38
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.84
0.36
0.91
0.36
0.79
0.36
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SV Kapfenberg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
1.00
0.57
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.62
1.08
0.62
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (SKN ST. Polten) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SKN ST. Polten
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.80
1.57
0.79
1.12
0.81
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.24
0.80
1.55
0.73
1.00
0.86
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
1.00
2.50
1.50
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SV Kapfenberg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.87
1.50
1.14
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.04
0.88
1.46
1.15
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (SKN ST. Polten) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (17)
€5m
AL (22)
€5m
FV (24)
€5m
AV( (23)
€5m
SSP (20)
€4m
AW (23)
€4m
RWI (24)
€4m
SGI (22)
€4m
AS (22)
€4m
SB (22)
€3m
WW (19)
€3m
SA (20)
€3m
FA (19)
€3m
SK (23)
€3m
SKN ST. Polten's squad is €2m more valuable than SV Kapfenberg's (€4m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (4)
€3m
AL (10)
€2m
RWI (12)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
AV( (7)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
SGI (7)
€1m
FV (7)
€1m
SB (9)
€1m
WW (7)
€1m
SA (7)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
AS (7)
€1m
SK (7)
€1m
SKN ST. Polten and SV Kapfenberg have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (8)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
FL (6)
€1m
FA (5)
€1m
AL (3)
€1m
AV( (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
SGI (6)
€1m
SA (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
WW (4)
€1m
RWI (4)
€1m
AS (4)
€1m
SKN ST. Polten and SV Kapfenberg have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AV( (11)
€2m
AS (11)
€2m
AW (11)
€2m
AL (9)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
SGI (9)
€2m
FL (7)
€2m
WW (8)
€1m
SSP (8)
€1m
RWI (8)
€1m
SA (8)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (10)
€1m
SKN ST. Polten and SV Kapfenberg have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Austria: 2. Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: 2. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Austria Lustenau
Admira Wacker
Floridsdorfer AC
FC Liefering
SKU Amstetten
First Vienna
Austria Vienna (Am)
Austria Salzburg
Austria Klagenfurt
Rapid Wien II
WSPG Wels
Sturm Graz II
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
Stripfing