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Skoruk Tomakivka vs Yarud Mariupol' Result & Analysis

Date: 23/04/2023
Time: 10:00
Final 1-0
Skoruk Tomakivka
Skoruk Tomakivka
Vs
49%
26%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Yarud Mariupol
Yarud Mariupol'
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Skoruk Tomakivka win✓ Hit
49.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' win✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Skoruk TomakivkaSkoruk Tomakivka

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L33D11D11D10W01L02L20W30W11DH·CHE15/10H·KRE21/10H·MET25/10A·HIR29/10H·OBO04/11A·MET11/11H·LNZ19/11H·SK 27/11H·DIN09/04A·PRY15/04
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.191.441.381.121.001.75
vs Stronger (2)0.002.500.002.000.003.00
vs Similar (12)1.501.251.830.831.171.67
vs Weaker (2)0.501.500.002.001.001.00
Clean sheet %19% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L11D22D02L01L11D01L41W12L24LH·DIN08/10H·KAR16/10A·PRY23/10H·POL29/10H·EPI05/11A·NYV12/11H·BUK20/11A·DIN26/11A·CHE08/04H·SK 15/04
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.941.940.501.751.382.12
vs Stronger (8)0.502.000.251.250.752.75
vs Similar (8)1.381.880.752.252.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-32pp vs league)
This opponent (Skoruk Tomakivka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%014%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.0%
Under 1.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.9%
Under 2.5
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.5%
Under 3.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.3%
No
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.6%
1-0 ✓
8.2%
2-0
8.1%
1-2
6.6%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
5.7%
3-1
5.6%
Skoruk Tomakivka goals ↓
Yarud Mariupol' goals →
01234
06.5%5.3%3.8%1.5%0.4%
18.2%12%6.6%2.6%0.8%
28.1%9.6%5.7%2.3%0.7%
34.7%5.6%3.3%1.3%0.4%
42.0%2.4%1.4%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Skoruk Tomakivka goals (down), columns = Yarud Mariupol' goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Polessya
2.55
LNZ Cherkasy
2.00
Khust City
2.00
Obolon'-Brovar
1.91
Karpaty
1.82
Metalurh Zaporizhya
1.55
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.55
Prykarpattia
1.36
Skoruk Tomakivka
1.27
Kremin'
1.18
Nyva Ternopil
1.14
Chernihiv
1.09
SK Poltava
1.05
Bukovyna
1.00
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.00
Hirnyk-Sport
0.73
Yarud Mariupol'
0.62
Skoruk Tomakivka is 0.65 points better than Yarud Mariupol' in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 0.62).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Polessya
2.18
LNZ Cherkasy
1.64
Kremin'
1.59
Karpaty
1.41
Obolon'-Brovar
1.32
SK Poltava
1.18
Metalurh Zaporizhya
1.14
Skoruk Tomakivka
1.14
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.09
Prykarpattia
1.09
Nyva Ternopil
1.05
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.05
Khust City
1.00
Yarud Mariupol'
0.96
Bukovyna
0.95
Chernihiv
0.91
Hirnyk-Sport
0.73
Skoruk Tomakivka is 0.18 goals better than Yarud Mariupol' in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 0.96).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Khust City
0.50
Polessya
0.55
LNZ Cherkasy
0.64
Obolon'-Brovar
0.73
Nyva Ternopil
0.91
Metalurh Zaporizhya
1.00
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.00
Karpaty
1.00
Skoruk Tomakivka
1.14
Prykarpattia
1.18
Chernihiv
1.32
Bukovyna
1.36
SK Poltava
1.55
Yarud Mariupol'
1.67
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.73
Hirnyk-Sport
1.77
Kremin'
1.86
Skoruk Tomakivka is 0.53 goals better than Yarud Mariupol' in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.67).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Skoruk TomakivkaSkoruk Tomakivka

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D22D00D10W00D01L02L10W20W00DH·CHE15/10H·KRE21/10H·MET25/10A·HIR29/10H·OBO04/11A·MET11/11H·LNZ19/11H·SK 27/11H·DIN09/04A·PRY15/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.620.750.620.250.62
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.002.000.001.00
vs Similar (12)0.670.581.000.500.330.67
vs Weaker (2)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %56% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W12L01L00D01L00D10W01L11DH·DIN08/10H·KAR16/10A·PRY23/10H·POL29/10H·EPI05/11A·NYV12/11H·BUK20/11A·DIN26/11A·CHE08/04H·SK 15/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.440.880.380.500.501.25
vs Stronger (8)0.380.880.250.250.501.50
vs Similar (8)0.500.880.500.750.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %38% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Skoruk Tomakivka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Skoruk Tomakivka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skoruk Tomakivka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skoruk Tomakivka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Skoruk TomakivkaSkoruk Tomakivka

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L11D11D01L10W00D00D10W10W11DH·CHE15/10H·KRE21/10H·MET25/10A·HIR29/10H·OBO04/11A·MET11/11H·LNZ19/11H·SK 27/11H·DIN09/04A·PRY15/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.690.810.620.500.751.12
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.000.000.002.00
vs Similar (12)0.830.670.830.330.831.00
vs Weaker (2)0.501.500.002.001.001.00
Clean sheet %38% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L10W01L01L10W01L31W11D13LH·DIN08/10H·KAR16/10A·PRY23/10H·POL29/10H·EPI05/11A·NYV12/11H·BUK20/11A·DIN26/11A·CHE08/04H·SK 15/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.060.121.250.880.88
vs Stronger (8)0.121.120.001.000.251.25
vs Similar (8)0.881.000.251.501.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %12% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Skoruk Tomakivka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Skoruk Tomakivka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skoruk Tomakivka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skoruk Tomakivka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.0%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
POL (32)
€34m
LC (25)
€20m
KAR (28)
€13m
BUK (25)
€9m
OBO (28)
€7m
ED (23)
€6m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
CHE (22)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
POL (9)
€12m
LC (9)
€8m
KAR (8)
€4m
BUK (10)
€4m
OBO (9)
€2m
ED (6)
€1m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
CHE (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
POL (9)
€8m
LC (5)
€5m
KAR (5)
€2m
BUK (5)
€2m
ED (6)
€2m
YM (7)
€1m
OBO (5)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
POL (14)
€14m
LC (11)
€7m
KAR (15)
€7m
BUK (10)
€3m
ED (11)
€3m
OBO (14)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
NT (9)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
ST wins
0
Draws
0
YM wins

Head-to-head

Skoruk Tomakivka vs Yarud Mariupol' · H/A from ST
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Skoruk TomakivkaSkoruk Tomakivka

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/04/23APrykarpattia Vs ST1-1
09/04/23HST Vs Dinaz Vyshhorod3-0
27/11/22HST Vs SK Poltava2-0
19/11/22HST Vs LNZ Cherkasy0-2
11/11/22AMetalurh Zaporizhya Vs ST1-0
04/11/22HST Vs Obolon'-Brovar1-0
29/10/22AHirnyk-Sport Vs ST1-1
25/10/22HST Vs Metalurh Zaporizhya1-1
21/10/22HST Vs Kremin'3-3
15/10/22HST Vs Chernihiv0-2

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/04/23HYM Vs SK Poltava2-4
08/04/23AChernihiv Vs YM2-1
26/11/22ADinaz Vyshhorod Vs YM1-4
20/11/22HYM Vs Bukovyna0-1
12/11/22ANyva Ternopil Vs YM1-1
05/11/22HYM Vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi0-1
29/10/22HYM Vs Polessya0-2
23/10/22APrykarpattia Vs YM2-2
16/10/22HYM Vs Karpaty1-1
08/10/22HYM Vs Dinaz Vyshhorod0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Skoruk Tomakivka
Skoruk Tomakivka
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWD1.12
HomeDWLWW1.50
AwayLWDLD0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %25%38%12%
AVG goals2.622.502.75
Over 1.5 %88%88%88%
Over 2.5 %38%25%50%
Over 3.5 %25%12%38%
Scored1.191.381.00
Conceded1.441.121.75
BTTS56%38%75%
Clean Sheet19%38%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Yarud Mariupol
Yarud Mariupol'
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLL0.44
HomeDLLLL0.25
AwayLDDWL0.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %6%0%12%
AVG goals2.882.253.50
Over 1.5 %81%75%88%
Over 2.5 %44%12%75%
Over 3.5 %31%12%50%
Scored0.940.501.38
Conceded1.941.752.12
BTTS56%38%75%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PolessyaPolessya2256
82%
2.5
4812+36
2.7
86%
59%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
34
128142.20.5
-
2LNZ CherkasyLNZ Cherkasy2244
59%
2.0
3614+22
2.3
73%
36%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
20
8571.60.6
-
3ObolonObolon'-Brovar2242
55%
1.9
2916+13
2.0
64%
45%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2131.30.7
-
4KarpatyKarpaty2240
55%
1.8
3122+9
2.4
77%
41%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4271.41.0
-
5Metalurh ZaporizhyaMetalurh Zaporizhya2234
41%
1.5
2522+3
2.1
64%
36%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.0
-
6Epitsentr DunayivtsiEpitsentr Dunayivtsi2234
45%
1.5
2422+2
2.1
64%
41%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
1231.11.0
-
7PrykarpattiaPrykarpattia2230
36%
1.4
2426-2
2.3
68%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.11.2
-
8Skoruk TomakivkaSkoruk Tomakivka2228
27%
1.3
2525+0
2.3
77%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.1
-
9KreminKremin'2226
32%
1.2
3541-6
3.5
95%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.9
-
10Nyva TernopilNyva Ternopil2225
23%
1.1
2320+3
2.0
68%
27%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.00.9
-
11ChernihivChernihiv2224
27%
1.1
2029-9
2.2
82%
32%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0110.91.3
-
12SK PoltavaSK Poltava2223
27%
1.0
2634-8
2.7
73%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.5
-
13BukovynaBukovyna2222
23%
1.0
2130-9
2.3
68%
50%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4231.01.4
-
14Dinaz VyshhorodDinaz Vyshhorod2222
23%
1.0
2338-15
2.8
77%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
15Hirnyk-SportHirnyk-Sport2216
14%
0.7
1639-23
2.5
68%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.8
-
16Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'2415
12%
0.6
2340-17
2.6
75%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.7
-
17Khust CityKhust City24
50%
2.0
21+1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.5
-
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →

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