Slavia Praha II are tipped to win, with the model assigning a 60% chance to a home victory, 24% to a draw and 16% to Dukla Praha taking the win. The expected total goals hover at 2.8, but the most likely total is two goals, a 25% probability. The single most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with an 11.3% chance. Slavia’s recent unbeaten run of five games, including a 3-3 draw with Opava, gives them confidence at home, while Dukla’s two-game winning streak and a 3-1 win over Vysočina Jihlava suggest they are sharpening on the road. Dukla’s away form against similar opponents shows an average of zero goals scored and three conceded per match. The model’s only selection is Over 1.5 goals, with a 78.4% probability.
Results analysis
The upset came early, with Dukla Praha snatching a 3-1 victory over Slavia Praha II, overturning the pre-match favourite, a home win that the model had assigned a 60% probability. The model’s prediction was therefore wrong. The final score of 1-3 confirmed the away win, a result the model had not anticipated. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, given a 78.4% chance, which hit as the match produced four goals. Slavia’s recent form - unbeaten in their last five - had not translated into a win, while Dukla’s two-game winning run proved decisive. The model’s call was incorrect, but its other pick was correct.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Slavia Praha II win✗ Miss
60.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dukla Praha win✓ Hit
16.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Slavia Praha II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.75
2.00
2.00
1.50
1.50
2.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
2.33
2.00
1.50
2.00
4.00
Clean sheet %
0% (-27pp vs league)
This opponent (Dukla Praha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dukla Praha
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
0% (-27pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Praha II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.4%
Under 1.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.7%
Under 2.5
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.4%
Under 3.5
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.8%
No
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
2-0
11.0%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
9.9%
3-0
7.0%
0-0
7.0%
3-1
6.3%
1-2
4.6%
Slavia Praha II goals ↓
Dukla Praha goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
4.3%
2.4%
0.7%
0.2%
1
10%
11%
4.6%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.5%
1.3%
0.3%
3
7.0%
6.3%
2.9%
0.9%
0.2%
4
3.4%
3.0%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Slavia Praha II goals (down), columns = Dukla Praha goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Karviná
1.87
Vyškov
1.73
Příbram
1.70
Dukla Praha
1.57
Artis
1.53
Varnsdorf
1.43
Táborsko
1.40
Chrudim
1.30
Sigma Olomouc II
1.30
Sparta Praha II
1.30
Vlašim
1.27
Prostějov
1.20
Opava
1.13
Vysočina Jihlava
1.13
Slavia Praha II
1.07
Třinec
0.90
Slavia Praha II is 0.50 points worse than Dukla Praha in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 1.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Karviná
1.93
Vlašim
1.80
Varnsdorf
1.80
Dukla Praha
1.70
Příbram
1.60
Vyškov
1.50
Slavia Praha II
1.40
Sigma Olomouc II
1.37
Táborsko
1.30
Prostějov
1.30
Artis
1.27
Vysočina Jihlava
1.23
Chrudim
1.07
Sparta Praha II
1.07
Třinec
1.00
Opava
0.87
Slavia Praha II is 0.30 goals worse than Dukla Praha in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.70).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Artis
0.90
Opava
0.97
Vyškov
0.97
Chrudim
1.07
Příbram
1.07
Karviná
1.23
Sparta Praha II
1.30
Táborsko
1.43
Dukla Praha
1.50
Sigma Olomouc II
1.53
Varnsdorf
1.53
Třinec
1.60
Vlašim
1.63
Vysočina Jihlava
1.70
Slavia Praha II
1.87
Prostějov
1.90
Slavia Praha II is 0.37 goals worse than Dukla Praha in terms of goals conceded per game (1.87 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Slavia Praha II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
1.25
1.50
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.67
1.50
1.00
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
25% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dukla Praha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dukla Praha
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Praha II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Slavia Praha II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Praha II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Praha II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukla Praha over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukla Praha over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukla Praha over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Slavia Praha II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.50
1.50
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
25% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dukla Praha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dukla Praha
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
0% (-27pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Praha II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Slavia Praha II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Praha II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Praha II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukla Praha over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukla Praha over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukla Praha over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dukla Praha · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Michal Kroupa22%
Dario Kreiker14%
Kevin-Prince Milla13%
Dantaye Gilbert12%
Rajmund Mikuš11%
Marcel Čermák9%
Jan Peterka8%
Jacques Fokam-Sandeu8%
Zlatan Šehović8%
Namory Cissé8%
Lukas Penxa8%
Jakub Kadák7%
Michal Černák6%
Marios Pourzitidis4%
Rihards Matrevics0%
Tomáš Pekhart0%
Jaroslav Svozil0%
Daniel Kozma0%
Marek Hanousek0%
Dominik Hašek0%
Hugo Jan Bačkovský0%
Bruno Unušić0%
Samson Tijani0%
Adam Jagrik0%
Štěpán Šebrle0%
Seif Ali Hindi0%
Martin Ambler0%
Eric Hunal0%
Matěj Žitný0%
Pavel Gaszczyk0%
Jiří Hrubeš0%
Tomáš Jedlička0%
Boubou Diallo0%
Mouhamed Tidjane Traoré0%
Diego Velasquez0%
Samuel Isife0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Eric Hunal45%
Boubou Diallo36%
Daniel Kozma33%
Mouhamed Tidjane Traoré27%
Tomáš Pekhart25%
Samuel Isife24%
Samson Tijani23%
Zlatan Šehović19%
Marek Hanousek18%
Martin Ambler18%
Michal Černák18%
Dominik Hašek16%
Namory Cissé15%
Hugo Jan Bačkovský14%
Jakub Kadák13%
Kevin-Prince Milla13%
Diego Velasquez12%
Rihards Matrevics11%
Rajmund Mikuš11%
Jaroslav Svozil9%
Jan Peterka8%
Bruno Unušić8%
Jacques Fokam-Sandeu8%
Marios Pourzitidis8%
Štěpán Šebrle8%
Lukas Penxa8%
Tomáš Jedlička6%
Dantaye Gilbert6%
Marcel Čermák6%
Matěj Žitný5%
Adam Jagrik0%
Dario Kreiker0%
Seif Ali Hindi0%
Pavel Gaszczyk0%
Jiří Hrubeš0%
Michal Kroupa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marcel Čermák15%
Samuel Isife12%
Michal Kroupa11%
Lukas Penxa8%
Jakub Kadák7%
Michal Černák6%
Matěj Žitný5%
Marios Pourzitidis4%
Zlatan Šehović4%
Rihards Matrevics0%
Tomáš Pekhart0%
Jaroslav Svozil0%
Daniel Kozma0%
Marek Hanousek0%
Dominik Hašek0%
Jan Peterka0%
Hugo Jan Bačkovský0%
Rajmund Mikuš0%
Bruno Unušić0%
Samson Tijani0%
Adam Jagrik0%
Namory Cissé0%
Štěpán Šebrle0%
Kevin-Prince Milla0%
Dario Kreiker0%
Seif Ali Hindi0%
Martin Ambler0%
Eric Hunal0%
Pavel Gaszczyk0%
Jiří Hrubeš0%
Tomáš Jedlička0%
Boubou Diallo0%
Mouhamed Tidjane Traoré0%
Dantaye Gilbert0%
Jacques Fokam-Sandeu0%
Diego Velasquez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kevin-Prince Milla33%
Namory Cissé15%
Marcel Čermák15%
Marek Hanousek9%
Jakub Kadák7%
Rihards Matrevics0%
Marios Pourzitidis0%
Zlatan Šehović0%
Tomáš Pekhart0%
Jaroslav Svozil0%
Daniel Kozma0%
Dominik Hašek0%
Jan Peterka0%
Hugo Jan Bačkovský0%
Rajmund Mikuš0%
Michal Černák0%
Bruno Unušić0%
Samson Tijani0%
Adam Jagrik0%
Štěpán Šebrle0%
Dario Kreiker0%
Seif Ali Hindi0%
Martin Ambler0%
Eric Hunal0%
Matěj Žitný0%
Pavel Gaszczyk0%
Jiří Hrubeš0%
Tomáš Jedlička0%
Boubou Diallo0%
Mouhamed Tidjane Traoré0%
Dantaye Gilbert0%
Lukas Penxa0%
Jacques Fokam-Sandeu0%
Diego Velasquez0%
Samuel Isife0%
Michal Kroupa0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (26)
€11m
ART (30)
€9m
KAR (24)
€7m
DP (29)
€7m
VLA (22)
€4m
TÁB (23)
€3m
PRO (25)
€3m
VJ (18)
€3m
OPA (21)
€3m
PŘÍ (21)
€2m
TŘI (3)
€0m
Slavia Praha II's squad is €4m more valuable than Dukla Praha's (€11m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (11)
€4m
DP (13)
€3m
SPI (8)
€3m
ART (9)
€2m
VLA (8)
€2m
OPA (7)
€1m
TÁB (7)
€1m
VJ (4)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
PRO (7)
€1m
TŘI (0)
€0m
Slavia Praha II and Dukla Praha have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (5)
€2m
ART (8)
€2m
DP (6)
€1m
VJ (6)
€1m
VLA (5)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
PRO (7)
€1m
TÁB (6)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
TŘI (0)
€0m
Slavia Praha II and Dukla Praha have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (13)
€6m
ART (13)
€5m
KAR (9)
€2m
DP (10)
€2m
TÁB (10)
€1m
VLA (9)
€1m
PRO (11)
€1m
VJ (8)
€1m
OPA (9)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
TŘI (3)
€0m
Slavia Praha II's defence is €5m more valuable than Dukla Praha's (€6m vs €2m).
Czech-Republic: FNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Czech-Republic: FNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Karviná
Vyškov
Příbram
Artis
Varnsdorf
Táborsko
Chrudim
Sigma Olomouc II
Sparta Praha II
Vlašim
Prostějov
Opava
Vysočina Jihlava
Třinec