PythiaFootballBETA
Slavia Praha is the clear favourite to win at home against Pardubice, with a predicted 79% chance of victory. The model's high rating is due to the home side's impressive form, particularly their ability to score at home, having averaged 2.67 goals per game against weaker opponents. Pardubice, on the other hand, struggle to score away from home, averaging just 1.86 goals per game against stronger opponents.
The expected total number of goals is 3.4, with the most likely outcome being a 3-0 win for Slavia Praha, which has a 12.2% probability. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 11.1% probability.
In terms of scoring, Slavia Praha have been clinical at home, conceding just 0.58 goals per game against weaker opponents. Pardubice, meanwhile, have struggled to contain stronger opponents, conceding 1.86 goals per game away from home.
The model's suggested picks include Over 1.5, with an 86.1% probability, Over 21.5 fouls, with a 78.8% probability, and Home win, with a 79.2% probability, which is the model's selection. The home win percentage is 79%, the draw percentage is 14%, and the away win percentage is 6%.
Slavia Praha's win extends their 4-game winning run, with Pardubice succumbing to a 2-1 defeat. The model's selection, a Home win, proved correct with a pre-match probability of 77%. The model's call was correct as the favourite was indeed Slavia Praha. The suggested picks largely came in, with Over 1.5 goals hitting with a 84.5% probability, Over 21.5 fouls also hitting at 78.8%, and Home win, the model's selection, hitting with a 77.3% probability.
Slavia Praha| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.33 | 1.23 | 2.47 | 1.00 | 2.20 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 3.50 | 1.00 | 3.50 | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 1.83 | 1.17 | 1.50 | 0.25 | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| vs Weaker (22) | 2.59 | 1.05 | 3.22 | 0.78 | 2.15 | 1.23 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
Pardubice| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 1.47 | 1.53 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.31 | 1.46 | 1.21 | 1.50 | 1.42 | 1.42 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-14pp vs league) | |||||
| Pardubice goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 13% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 11% | 7.5% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 7.0% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Slavia PrahaPardubiceSlavia Praha| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.0 | 10.4 | 11.6 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 26.6 | 25.7 | 27.5 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 10.0 | 10.0 | - | 4.0 | 4.0 | - | 25.5 | 25.5 | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 9.1 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 29.8 | 29.8 | 29.8 |
| vs Weaker (37) | 11.6 | 10.9 | 12.3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 25.8 | 24.5 | 26.9 |
| % over line | 61% | 52% | 70% | 52% | 46% | 58% | 83% | 74% | 91% |
| % under line | 39% | 48% | 30% | 48% | 54% | 42% | 17% | 26% | 9% |
Pardubice| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.0 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 25.3 | 24.9 | 25.7 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 12.0 | 12.2 | 11.7 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 22.8 | 22.0 | 24.0 |
| vs Similar (39) | 9.7 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 25.8 | 25.7 | 25.9 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 7.0 | 7.0 | - | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 | - |
| % over line | 53% | 50% | 57% | 50% | 56% | 44% | 72% | 71% | 74% |
| % under line | 47% | 50% | 43% | 50% | 44% | 56% | 28% | 29% | 26% |
Slavia Praha| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.30 | 0.47 | 1.33 | 0.53 | 1.27 | 0.40 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.50 | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (22) | 1.41 | 0.36 | 1.67 | 0.44 | 1.23 | 0.31 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+33pp vs league) | |||||
Pardubice| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.70 | 0.47 | 0.80 | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.46 | 0.73 | 0.50 | 0.79 | 0.42 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
Slavia Praha| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 0.77 | 1.13 | 0.47 | 0.93 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (22) | 1.18 | 0.68 | 1.56 | 0.33 | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
Pardubice| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 1.07 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.25 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.85 | 0.73 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 92.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 85.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 84.5% | 1.13 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.14 | +2.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 78.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Home win | 77.3% | 1.21 | 1.25 | 1.24 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.22 | +0.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 75.5% | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | +8.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 74.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 11.5 corners | 71.2% | 1.45 | 1.50 | 1.48 | 1.47 | 1.44 | 1.43 | +7.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 23/08/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 08/02/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 01/09/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 25/02/24 | H | 3-0 | |
| 16/09/23 | A | 0-1 | |
| 04/02/23 | A | 0-2 | |
| 21/08/22 | H | 7-0 |
Slavia Praha| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 26/07/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 24/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 13/05/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 0-2 |
Pardubice| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 26/07/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 6 | 14 | 67% | 2.3 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 3.7 | 100% | 83% | 50% | 11.0 | 50% | 3.5 | 50% | 29.3 | 100% | 123 | 27 | 35 | 61 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 54% |
| 2 |  Zbrojovka Brno | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 33% | 8.5 | 33% | 3.0 | 40% | 20.5 | 50% | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 45% |
| 3 |  Slovan Liberec | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 1.8 | 50% | 17% | 17% | 9.8 | 50% | 6.7 | 100% | 28.0 | 83% | 27 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 47% |
| 4 |  Mlada Boleslav | 5 | 11 | 60% | 2.2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 3.4 | 100% | 60% | 40% | 11.0 | 60% | 3.2 | 40% | 28.4 | 80% | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 5 |  Sigma Olomouc | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 3.0 | 83% | 83% | 33% | 9.3 | 50% | 2.8 | 17% | 24.7 | 50% | 30 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 58% |
| 6 |  FK Jablonec | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 2.0 | 80% | 20% | 0% | 8.2 | 20% | 3.6 | 40% | 30.2 | 100% | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 52% |
| 7 |  Teplice | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 12 | 12 | +0 | 4.0 | 83% | 50% | 50% | 10.3 | 50% | 4.3 | 33% | 26.2 | 83% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 49% |
| 8 |  Sparta Praha | 6 | 9 | 50% | 1.5 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 3.7 | 100% | 83% | 67% | 11.5 | 50% | 3.2 | 40% | 27.8 | 83% | 92 | 43 | 27 | 22 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 65% |
| 9 |  Baník Ostrava | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.0 | 40% | 40% | 20% | 9.6 | 20% | 3.4 | 20% | 24.2 | 60% | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 47% |
| 10 |  Hradec Králové | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 1.8 | 60% | 40% | 0% | 9.0 | 40% | 3.4 | 60% | 24.2 | 60% | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 11 |  Bohemians 1905 | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 40% | 10.6 | 60% | 3.8 | 60% | 27.6 | 80% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 47% |
| 12 |  Plzen | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 4.6 | 100% | 60% | 60% | 7.8 | 0% | 6.4 | 80% | 27.2 | 80% | 57 | 15 | 22 | 20 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 59% |
| 13 |  Artis | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 83% | 67% | 33% | 7.7 | 17% | 3.3 | 50% | 27.5 | 83% | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 42% |
| 14 |  Slovácko | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2.8 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 8.2 | 33% | 5.0 | 50% | 34.5 | 100% | 8 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 48% |
| 15 | Pardubice | 6 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2.8 | 100% | 67% | 17% | 9.3 | 33% | 3.7 | 50% | 28.5 | 100% | 14 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 40% |
| 16 |  Zlin | 6 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 3.0 | 67% | 50% | 50% | 8.8 | 33% | 3.7 | 33% | 29.5 | 83% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 43% |