Sliema Wanderers’ defensive record at home - conceding only half a goal per game - sets the tone for a tight, low-scoring affair. The model favours a home win, with a 45% chance, followed by a 34% draw and a 22% away win. The expected total is 1.9 goals, centring on a 2-goal match. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 17% probability, reflecting the teams’ cautious approach.
Sliema’s home form shows 1.25 goals scored and 0.5 conceded against similar opposition, while Birkirkara’s away outing yields just 0.53 goals for and 1.35 against. The model’s selections lean heavily toward low-scoring outcomes: Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.4%), Under 5.5 (98.8%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.9%), and Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.7%). All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sliema Wanderers win
44.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
33.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara win
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sliema Wanderers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.20
1.00
1.08
1.18
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.00
1.08
1.25
0.50
0.88
1.38
vs Weaker (18)
1.17
1.28
0.89
1.33
1.44
1.22
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birkirkara
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.10
1.54
0.77
0.53
1.35
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.97
1.10
1.54
0.77
0.53
1.35
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
56.5%
Under 1.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
28.3%
Under 2.5
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
11.7%
Under 3.5
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
35.9%
No
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
17.0%
1-0
16.6%
1-1
14.0%
2-0
10.2%
0-1
9.9%
2-1
7.3%
1-2
4.5%
0-2
4.0%
Sliema Wanderers goals ↓
Birkirkara goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
17%
9.9%
4.0%
0.9%
0.2%
1
17%
14%
4.5%
1.1%
0.2%
2
10%
7.3%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
3
3.9%
2.8%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
4
1.1%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sliema Wanderers goals (down), columns = Birkirkara goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Sliema Wanderers is 0.41 points better than Birkirkara in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Sliema Wanderers is 0.25 goals better than Birkirkara in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 0.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Sliema Wanderers and Birkirkara are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sliema Wanderers or Draw
78.3%
Avg Implied -
45%
34%
22%
covers Sliema Wanderers + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers or Birkirkara
66.2%
Avg Implied -
45%
34%
22%
covers Sliema Wanderers + Birkirkara
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Birkirkara
55.5%
Avg Implied -
45%
34%
22%
covers Draw + Birkirkara
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5
Over
68.0%
Under
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5
Over
31.5%
Under
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 3.5
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5
Over
51.0%
Under
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5
Over
16.0%
Under
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 3.5
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sliema Wanderers, so a minus line means Sliema Wanderers give that many goals of a start and Birkirkara receive them. At -1, Sliema Wanderers must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sliema Wanderers win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sliema Wanderers)
Sliema Wanderers -2
6.4%
Draw -2
13.2%
Birkirkara +2
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sliema Wanderers)
Sliema Wanderers -1
19.6%
Draw -1
24.9%
Birkirkara +1
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sliema Wanderers)
Sliema Wanderers +1
78.3%
Draw +1
15.1%
Birkirkara -1
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sliema Wanderers)
Sliema Wanderers +2
93.4%
Draw +2
5.2%
Birkirkara -2
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sliema Wanderers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.54
0.54
0.41
0.76
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.17
0.75
0.25
0.25
0.12
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
0.67
0.61
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.56
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birkirkara
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.47
0.69
0.38
0.35
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.50
0.47
0.69
0.38
0.35
0.53
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
65.8%
Under 0.5
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
28.5%
Under 1.5
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
8.6%
Under 2.5
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.4%
Under
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.1%
Under
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sliema Wanderers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.46
0.54
0.76
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.33
1.00
0.25
0.75
0.38
vs Weaker (18)
0.50
0.67
0.22
0.67
0.78
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birkirkara
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.85
0.38
0.18
0.82
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.47
0.63
0.85
0.38
0.18
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.9%
Under 0.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.8%
Under 1.5
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.9%
Under 2.5
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.3%
Under
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.9%
Under
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.7%
Under
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Sliema Wanderers's squad is €4m more valuable than Birkirkara's (€7m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Sliema Wanderers's attack is €1m more valuable than Birkirkara's (€3m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Sliema Wanderers's midfield is €2m more valuable than Birkirkara's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Sliema Wanderers's defence is €1m more valuable than Birkirkara's (€2m vs €1m).
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Floriana
Valletta FC
Mosta
Marsaxlokk
Balzan FC
Zabbar St. Patrick
Hibernians
Hamrun Spartans
Birzebbuga
Gzira United