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Sliema Wanderers vs Floriana Result & Analysis

Date: 07/03/2026
Time: 15:30
Final 0-1
Sliema Wanderers
Sliema Wanderers
Vs
20%
31%
50%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Floriana
Floriana
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Defensive solidity will shape this encounter, as Sliema Wanderers have been conceding 1.43 goals per game at home, while Floriana’s away defence has allowed only 1.25. The model favours an away win, with a 50% chance for Floriana, 31% for a draw and 20% for Sliema. The expected total is 2.1 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 0-1, a 15.4% probability, reflecting Floriana’s recent unbeaten run and Sliema’s shaky form after a win against Birzebbuga. The model’s selection is Under 3.5, with an 84.2% chance of hitting. Sliema’s home scoring average is 1.14, conceding 1.43; Floriana’s away scoring is 1.75, conceding 1.25. All probabilities are expressed as percentages, and every suggested pick is listed with its probability.

Results analysis

Sliema Wanderers entered the match on a winning streak, while Floriana remained unbeaten in their last five outings. The model’s favourite, an away win, proved correct as Floriana edged Sliema 0-1. The prediction of an away victory came with a 50% probability, and the model’s selection was accurate. The model also suggested Under 3.5 goals, with an 84.2% chance, and that call hit. The most likely scoreline was 0-1, and the total goals were indeed two, matching the model’s expected total of 2.1. Overall, the favoured result and the key selection both materialised, confirming the model’s accuracy.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sliema Wanderers win✗ Miss
19.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Floriana win✓ Hit
49.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W13L02L11D10W11D11D10W11DA·HAM10/01H·ZAB16/01H·HIB25/01A·HAM31/01A·MAR03/02A·MOS08/02A·NAX14/02A·BIR17/02A·VAL21/02A·TAR28/02
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.230.931.271.401.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.071.361.141.431.001.29
vs Weaker (16)1.251.120.751.121.751.12
Clean sheet %23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlorianaFloriana

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D31W21W30W00D21W20W00D41W11DH·VAL10/01H·NAX17/01H·MOS25/01A·ZAB01/02A·VAL04/02A·GZI08/02H·TAR15/02H·MAR18/02H·HIB22/02A·HAM01/03
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.730.931.611.001.920.83
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.311.231.111.221.751.25
vs Weaker (17)2.060.712.110.782.000.62
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%14%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
62.8%
Under 1.5
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
34.6%
Under 2.5
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.8%
Under 3.5
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.0%
No
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1 ✓
15.4%
0-0
13.7%
1-1
13.7%
0-2
11.2%
1-2
8.3%
1-0
8.0%
0-3
5.0%
2-1
4.6%
Sliema Wanderers goals ↓
Floriana goals →
01234
014%15%11%5.0%1.7%
18.0%14%8.3%3.7%1.2%
23.5%4.6%3.1%1.4%0.5%
30.9%1.1%0.8%0.3%0.1%
40.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sliema Wanderers goals (down), columns = Floriana goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Tarxien Rainbows
0.71
Sliema Wanderers is 0.68 points worse than Floriana in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.18).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Naxxar Lions
1.24
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Tarxien Rainbows
0.97
Birkirkara
0.91
Sliema Wanderers is 0.40 goals worse than Floriana in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 1.56).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Naxxar Lions
1.58
Tarxien Rainbows
1.74
Mosta
1.76
Sliema Wanderers is 0.30 goals worse than Floriana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 0.82).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L00D11D01L01L10W00D01L00D00DA·HAM10/01H·ZAB16/01H·HIB25/01A·HAM31/01A·MAR03/02A·MOS08/02A·NAX14/02A·BIR17/02A·VAL21/02A·TAR28/02
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.570.470.470.600.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.290.710.430.430.141.00
vs Weaker (16)0.750.440.500.501.000.38
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlorianaFloriana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D01L11D10W00D01L10W00D11D10WH·VAL10/01H·NAX17/01H·MOS25/01A·ZAB01/02A·VAL04/02A·GZI08/02H·TAR15/02H·MAR18/02H·HIB22/02A·HAM01/03
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.530.830.561.080.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.850.540.780.441.000.75
vs Weaker (17)1.000.530.890.671.120.38
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W02L01L10W00D11D10W10W11DA·HAM10/01H·ZAB16/01H·HIB25/01A·HAM31/01A·MAR03/02A·MOS08/02A·NAX14/02A·BIR17/02A·VAL21/02A·TAR28/02
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.670.470.800.800.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.790.640.711.000.860.29
vs Weaker (16)0.500.690.250.620.750.75
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlorianaFloriana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D30W10W20W00D20W10W00D30W01LH·VAL10/01H·NAX17/01H·MOS25/01A·ZAB01/02A·VAL04/02A·GZI08/02H·TAR15/02H·MAR18/02H·HIB22/02A·HAM01/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.400.780.440.830.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.460.690.330.780.750.50
vs Weaker (17)1.060.181.220.110.880.25
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.584.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
Sliema Wanderers's squad is €2m more valuable than Floriana's (€7m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Sliema Wanderers and Floriana have a similar attack value (both €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Sliema Wanderers's midfield is €1m more valuable than Floriana's (€2m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
Sliema Wanderers and Floriana have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
SW wins
2
Draws
5
FLO wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Sliema Wanderers vs Floriana · H/A from SW
DateH/AGameScore
20/12/25AFloriana Vs SW2-1
01/11/25AFloriana Vs SW2-2
09/05/25HSW Vs Floriana0-4
06/04/25AFloriana Vs SW0-2
22/02/25HSW Vs Floriana1-2
17/12/24AFloriana Vs SW1-0
01/11/24AFloriana Vs SW0-0
16/03/24AFloriana Vs SW2-0

Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/02/26ATarxien Rainbows Vs SW1-1
21/02/26AValletta FC Vs SW0-1
17/02/26ABirkirkara Vs SW1-1
14/02/26ANaxxar Lions Vs SW1-1
08/02/26AMosta Vs SW0-1
03/02/26AMarsaxlokk Vs SW1-1
31/01/26AHamrun Spartans Vs SW2-0
25/01/26HSW Vs Hibernians1-3
16/01/26HSW Vs Zabbar St. Patrick1-0
10/01/26AHamrun Spartans Vs SW1-0

FlorianaFloriana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/03/26AHamrun Spartans Vs FLO1-1
22/02/26HFLO Vs Hibernians4-1
18/02/26HFLO Vs Marsaxlokk0-0
15/02/26HFLO Vs Tarxien Rainbows2-0
08/02/26AGzira United Vs FLO1-2
04/02/26AValletta FC Vs FLO0-0
01/02/26AZabbar St. Patrick Vs FLO0-3
25/01/26HFLO Vs Mosta2-1
17/01/26HFLO Vs Naxxar Lions3-1
10/01/26HFLO Vs Valletta FC0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Sliema Wanderers
Sliema Wanderers
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDWD1.58
HomeDWDWL1.38
AwayWDDWD1.77
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%38%50%
AVG goals2.442.502.38
Over 1.5 %68%71%65%
Over 2.5 %42%46%38%
Over 3.5 %26%33%19%
Scored1.341.251.42
Conceded1.101.250.96
BTTS52%50%54%
Clean Sheet28%25%31%
Corners---
Cards---
Floriana
Floriana
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWD1.96
HomeWWWDW1.81
AwayWWDWD2.22
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%50%67%
AVG goals2.382.342.44
Over 1.5 %74%78%67%
Over 2.5 %48%47%50%
Over 3.5 %22%22%22%
Scored1.521.441.67
Conceded0.860.910.78
BTTS48%50%44%
Clean Sheet42%38%50%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3474
65%
2.2
5328+25
2.4
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.8
-
2Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3466
56%
1.9
5522+33
2.3
74%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.60.6
-
3MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3457
47%
1.7
4439+5
2.4
76%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.31.1
-
4Valletta FCValletta FC3454
41%
1.6
4126+15
2.0
62%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.20.8
-
5Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3248
38%
1.5
3736+1
2.3
72%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.21.1
-
6Gzira UnitedGzira United3243
38%
1.3
3843-5
2.5
72%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.3
-
7HiberniansHibernians3239
31%
1.2
4549-4
2.9
78%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.41.5
-
8BirkirkaraBirkirkara3235
25%
1.1
2936-7
2.0
62%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2110.91.1
-
9Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
4152-11
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.6
-
10Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3433
18%
1.0
4245-3
2.6
79%
44%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.3
-
11MostaMosta3329
21%
0.9
3558-23
2.8
70%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.8
-
12Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows3424
12%
0.7
3359-26
2.7
76%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.7
-
Malta: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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