Defensive solidity will shape this encounter, as Sliema Wanderers have been conceding 1.43 goals per game at home, while Floriana’s away defence has allowed only 1.25. The model favours an away win, with a 50% chance for Floriana, 31% for a draw and 20% for Sliema. The expected total is 2.1 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 0-1, a 15.4% probability, reflecting Floriana’s recent unbeaten run and Sliema’s shaky form after a win against Birzebbuga. The model’s selection is Under 3.5, with an 84.2% chance of hitting. Sliema’s home scoring average is 1.14, conceding 1.43; Floriana’s away scoring is 1.75, conceding 1.25. All probabilities are expressed as percentages, and every suggested pick is listed with its probability.
Results analysis
Sliema Wanderers entered the match on a winning streak, while Floriana remained unbeaten in their last five outings. The model’s favourite, an away win, proved correct as Floriana edged Sliema 0-1. The prediction of an away victory came with a 50% probability, and the model’s selection was accurate. The model also suggested Under 3.5 goals, with an 84.2% chance, and that call hit. The most likely scoreline was 0-1, and the total goals were indeed two, matching the model’s expected total of 2.1. Overall, the favoured result and the key selection both materialised, confirming the model’s accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sliema Wanderers win✗ Miss
19.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Floriana win✓ Hit
49.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sliema Wanderers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.23
0.93
1.27
1.40
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.07
1.36
1.14
1.43
1.00
1.29
vs Weaker (16)
1.25
1.12
0.75
1.12
1.75
1.12
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floriana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.93
1.61
1.00
1.92
0.83
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.31
1.23
1.11
1.22
1.75
1.25
vs Weaker (17)
2.06
0.71
2.11
0.78
2.00
0.62
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
62.8%
Under 1.5
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
34.6%
Under 2.5
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.8%
Under 3.5
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.0%
No
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1 ✓
15.4%
0-0
13.7%
1-1
13.7%
0-2
11.2%
1-2
8.3%
1-0
8.0%
0-3
5.0%
2-1
4.6%
Sliema Wanderers goals ↓
Floriana goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
15%
11%
5.0%
1.7%
1
8.0%
14%
8.3%
3.7%
1.2%
2
3.5%
4.6%
3.1%
1.4%
0.5%
3
0.9%
1.1%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sliema Wanderers goals (down), columns = Floriana goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Tarxien Rainbows
0.71
Sliema Wanderers is 0.68 points worse than Floriana in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Naxxar Lions
1.24
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Tarxien Rainbows
0.97
Birkirkara
0.91
Sliema Wanderers is 0.40 goals worse than Floriana in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 1.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Naxxar Lions
1.58
Tarxien Rainbows
1.74
Mosta
1.76
Sliema Wanderers is 0.30 goals worse than Floriana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 0.82).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sliema Wanderers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.47
0.47
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.29
0.71
0.43
0.43
0.14
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.44
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.38
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floriana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.53
0.83
0.56
1.08
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.54
0.78
0.44
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (17)
1.00
0.53
0.89
0.67
1.12
0.38
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sliema Wanderers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.47
0.80
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.64
0.71
1.00
0.86
0.29
vs Weaker (16)
0.50
0.69
0.25
0.62
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floriana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.40
0.78
0.44
0.83
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.69
0.33
0.78
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (17)
1.06
0.18
1.22
0.11
0.88
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
Sliema Wanderers's squad is €2m more valuable than Floriana's (€7m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Sliema Wanderers and Floriana have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Sliema Wanderers's midfield is €1m more valuable than Floriana's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
Sliema Wanderers and Floriana have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Malta: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →