Sliema Wanderers are expected to edge out Hibernians in this Premier League match. The recent form of both teams suggests they're coming off defeats, with Sliema Wanderers losing to Tarxien Rainbows 1-2 and Hibernians conceding a 0-3 loss to Zabbar St. Patrick.
The model predicts a Sliema Wanderers home win, with a 46% chance of them taking the three points. The probability of a draw is 28%, while Hibernians have a 26% chance of winning. The expected total goals is 2.6, with the most likely total goals being 2.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 13.5%. In terms of form, Sliema Wanderers have averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.0 conceded at home, while Hibernians have averaged 1.0 scored and 1.83 conceded away against stronger opponents.
The model's selections include Under 3.5, with a 74.2% probability, and Over 1.5, with a 74% probability. Sliema Wanderers have a 46% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 26% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The upset of the day comes as Hibernians stunned Sliema Wanderers with a 0-2 away win, extending their run of victories. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 48%. The model's call was wrong, as the actual result was an Away win.
The model's selection of Home win was not the only one to miss the mark. Over 1.5, with a probability of 74.3%, hit, while Under 3.5, with a probability of 73.7%, also hit.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sliema Wanderers win✗ Miss
47.7%
Avg Implied 41.1% · @ 2.20
Edge
+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.27
Dafabet
2.26
Unibet
2.23
Pinnacle
2.22
1xBet
2.21
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied 29.7% · @ 3.04
Edge
-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.15
BetVictor
3.13
10Bet
3.10
Bet365
3.10
Betano
3.10
Hibernians win✓ Hit
24.4%
Avg Implied 29.2% · @ 3.10
Edge
-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.16
Dafabet
3.15
1xBet
3.15
BetVictor
3.13
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sliema Wanderers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.13
1.13
1.00
1.20
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.15
1.08
1.33
0.83
1.00
1.29
vs Weaker (17)
1.18
1.18
1.00
1.11
1.38
1.25
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernians
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.47
1.41
1.06
1.08
2.00
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.86
0.67
1.67
1.25
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.35
1.35
1.57
0.93
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.3%
@ 1.33+5.6%
Under 1.5
25.7%
@ 2.92-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
888Sport
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.03
Betfair
3.00
888Sport
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
10Bet
2.95
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.0%
@ 2.09+3.8%
Under 2.5
52.0%
@ 1.65-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.15
Pinnacle
2.12
888Sport
2.10
Unibet
2.08
Under
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.67
888Sport
1.67
BetVictor
1.66
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.3%
@ 3.68+1.4%
Under 3.5
73.7%
@ 1.22-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
3.90
888Sport
3.80
10Bet
3.65
Unibet
3.65
Under
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.3%
@ 1.81+1.8%
No
47.7%
@ 1.85-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.85
888Sport
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
William Hil
1.83
1xBet
1.81
No
1xBet
1.86
Betfair
1.85
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%@ 5.58+5.6%
1-0
10.4%@ 6.50+3.8%
2-1
9.4%@ 8.43+4.3%
2-0
9.0%@ 9.71+4.6%
0-0
8.7%@ 7.75+3.2%
0-1
6.6%@ 8.17+1.4%
1-2
6.3%@ 10.08+2.1%
2-2
4.9%@ 13.17+1.6%
Sliema Wanderers goals ↓
Hibernians goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
6.6%
4.1%
1.4%
0.4%
1
10%
13%
6.3%
2.2%
0.6%
2
9.0%
9.4%
4.9%
1.7%
0.4%
3
4.6%
4.8%
2.5%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.8%
1.9%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sliema Wanderers goals (down), columns = Hibernians goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Sliema Wanderers is 0.28 points better than Hibernians in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Sliema Wanderers is 0.25 goals worse than Hibernians in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 1.41).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Sliema Wanderers is 0.41 goals better than Hibernians in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sliema Wanderers or Draw✗ Miss
75.6%
Avg Implied 70.8% · @ 1.29
Edge
+4.8%
48%
28%
24%
covers Sliema Wanderers + Draw
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Sliema Wanderers or Hibernians✓ Hit
72.1%
Avg Implied 70.2% · @ 1.30
Edge
+1.9%
48%
28%
24%
covers Sliema Wanderers + Hibernians
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Draw or Hibernians✓ Hit
52.3%
Avg Implied 59.0% · @ 1.55
Edge
-6.7%
48%
28%
24%
covers Draw + Hibernians
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.57
BetVictor
1.57
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sliema Wanderers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.67
0.47
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.69
0.50
0.33
0.14
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
0.71
0.59
0.78
0.56
0.62
0.62
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernians
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.59
0.41
0.62
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.57
0.64
0.29
0.56
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sliema Wanderers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.47
0.53
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.38
0.83
0.50
0.86
0.29
vs Weaker (17)
0.47
0.59
0.22
0.56
0.75
0.62
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernians
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.82
0.65
0.46
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.86
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.78
0.93
0.64
0.44
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home or Draw
75.6%
1.29
888Sport
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.32
Betfair
1.30
+4.8%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
74.3%
1.33
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
888Sport
1.33
Betfair
1.33
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.7%
1.22
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.1%
1.30
William Hil
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.30
Unibet
1.30
+1.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Sliema Wanderers's squad is €2m more valuable than Hibernians's (€7m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Sliema Wanderers and Hibernians have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Sliema Wanderers's midfield is €2m more valuable than Hibernians's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Sliema Wanderers and Hibernians have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Floriana
Valletta FC
Mosta
Marsaxlokk
Birkirkara
Balzan FC
Zabbar St. Patrick
Hamrun Spartans
Birzebbuga
Gzira United