Defensive solidity will be the headline, with both sides averaging fewer than two goals per match against comparable opposition - Sliema Wanderers scoring 1.25 and conceding 0.5 at home, Valletta FC netting 1.08 while giving up 0.62 on the road. The model projects a tight affair, expecting exactly two goals in total and the most probable scoreline 0-0, which carries a 15.2% chance. The odds lean toward an away win, with the model picking Valletta FC as the favourite. Home win probability sits at 27%, a draw at 33%, and an away win at 40%. Recent form hints at a swing: Sliema Wanderers arrive after a win, while Valletta FC comes off a defeat. The model’s selections favour a low-scoring game: Under 7.5 goals at 99.9%, Under 6.5 at 99.6%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.8%, Under 5.5 at 98.4%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.3%, Under 4.5 at 95.0%, Home under 2.5 goals at 94.3%, and an Away +2 handicap at 90.6%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sliema Wanderers win
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
33.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC win
42.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sliema Wanderers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.20
1.00
1.08
1.18
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.00
1.08
1.25
0.50
0.88
1.38
vs Weaker (18)
1.17
1.28
0.89
1.33
1.44
1.22
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Valletta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valletta FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.83
1.29
1.00
1.15
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.23
0.83
1.29
1.00
1.15
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
59.6%
Under 1.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
31.2%
Under 2.5
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
13.6%
Under 3.5
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
39.2%
No
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.4%
0-1
14.9%
1-1
14.4%
1-0
10.1%
0-2
9.3%
1-2
7.5%
2-1
5.3%
2-0
4.6%
Sliema Wanderers goals ↓
Valletta FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
15%
9.3%
3.6%
1.0%
1
10%
14%
7.5%
2.9%
0.8%
2
4.6%
5.3%
3.1%
1.2%
0.3%
3
1.2%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sliema Wanderers goals (down), columns = Valletta FC goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Sliema Wanderers is 0.09 points worse than Valletta FC in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.59).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Sliema Wanderers is 0.05 goals worse than Valletta FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Sliema Wanderers is 0.36 goals worse than Valletta FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 0.76).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sliema Wanderers or Draw
57.6%
Avg Implied -
24%
33%
42%
covers Sliema Wanderers + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers or Valletta FC
66.8%
Avg Implied -
24%
33%
42%
covers Sliema Wanderers + Valletta FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Valletta FC
75.6%
Avg Implied -
24%
33%
42%
covers Draw + Valletta FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5
Over
55.5%
Under
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5
Over
19.4%
Under
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 0.5
Over
68.4%
Under
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 1.5
Over
32.0%
Under
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 2.5
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sliema Wanderers, so a minus line means Sliema Wanderers give that many goals of a start and Valletta FC receive them. At -1, Sliema Wanderers must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sliema Wanderers win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sliema Wanderers)
Sliema Wanderers -2
1.9%
Draw -2
6.2%
Valletta FC +2
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sliema Wanderers)
Sliema Wanderers -1
8.1%
Draw -1
16.3%
Valletta FC +1
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sliema Wanderers)
Sliema Wanderers +1
57.6%
Draw +1
23.7%
Valletta FC -1
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sliema Wanderers)
Sliema Wanderers +2
81.3%
Draw +2
12.6%
Valletta FC -2
6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sliema Wanderers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.54
0.54
0.41
0.76
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.17
0.75
0.25
0.25
0.12
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
0.67
0.61
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.56
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Valletta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valletta FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.30
0.41
0.47
0.31
0.08
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.37
0.30
0.41
0.47
0.31
0.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
83% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sliema Wanderers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.46
0.54
0.76
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.33
1.00
0.25
0.75
0.38
vs Weaker (18)
0.50
0.67
0.22
0.67
0.78
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Valletta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valletta FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.53
0.88
0.53
0.85
0.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.87
0.53
0.88
0.53
0.85
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valletta FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Sliema Wanderers's squad is €3m more valuable than Valletta FC's (€7m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Sliema Wanderers's attack is €1m more valuable than Valletta FC's (€3m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Sliema Wanderers and Valletta FC have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Sliema Wanderers and Valletta FC have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →
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Floriana
Mosta
Marsaxlokk
Birkirkara
Balzan FC
Zabbar St. Patrick
Hibernians
Hamrun Spartans
Birzebbuga
Gzira United