The model favours an away win, with a 49% chance for Derry City, 29% for a draw and 23% for Sligo Rovers. The expected total is 2.4 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 27% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.5% chance. Sligo Rovers, playing at home against a stronger opponent, average 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded. Derry City, on the road versus a weaker side, average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 with a 77.1% probability and Over 1.5 with a 71.2% probability. The recent form shows Sligo Rovers struggling after a 0-3 loss, while Derry City comes off a 3-3 draw. The match is likely to see Derry City edge out a narrow win.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Sligo Rovers edged Derry City 2-1, overturning the pre-match favourite, the away win, which the model had given a 49% chance. The prediction was wrong. The final score confirmed a home win, a result the model had not selected. The model’s other selections fared well: Under 3.5, with a 77.1% probability, hit; Over 1.5, at 71.2%, also hit. Sligo’s recent form, a string of losses, had left them looking fragile, while Derry’s away run of draws and wins suggested resilience. Yet the home side’s 2-1 victory proved the model’s pick for the match was off, though its market-style picks performed as expected.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sligo Rovers win✓ Hit
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Derry City win✗ Miss
48.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sligo Rovers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.29
1.24
1.25
1.12
1.33
1.33
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.25
1.50
vs Similar (9)
1.22
1.33
1.00
1.20
1.50
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
3.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
24% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.76
0.82
1.78
0.89
1.75
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.92
0.92
2.00
1.14
1.83
0.67
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
35% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.2%
Under 1.5
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.0%
Under 2.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.9%
Under 3.5
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.6%
No
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
0-1
11.8%
0-0
10.0%
0-2
9.8%
1-2
9.2%
1-0
7.0%
2-1 ✓
5.8%
0-3
4.9%
Sligo Rovers goals ↓
Derry City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10.0%
12%
9.8%
4.9%
1.8%
1
7.0%
14%
9.2%
4.6%
1.7%
2
3.9%
5.8%
4.3%
2.2%
0.8%
3
1.2%
1.8%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sligo Rovers goals (down), columns = Derry City goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
2.19
Derry City
1.83
Dundalk
1.75
St Patrick's Athl.
1.69
Sligo Rovers
1.44
Bohemians
1.28
Shelbourne
1.14
Drogheda United
1.06
UCD
0.78
Finn Harps
0.56
Waterford
0.00
Sligo Rovers is 0.39 points worse than Derry City in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.69
St Patrick's Athl.
1.58
Derry City
1.47
Dundalk
1.39
Sligo Rovers
1.36
Bohemians
1.25
Shelbourne
1.11
Drogheda United
0.94
Finn Harps
0.92
UCD
0.78
Waterford
0.00
Sligo Rovers is 0.11 goals worse than Derry City in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 1.47).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shamrock Rovers
0.61
Derry City
0.75
Dundalk
0.89
Waterford
1.00
St Patrick's Athl.
1.03
Sligo Rovers
1.14
Bohemians
1.28
Shelbourne
1.36
Drogheda United
1.61
UCD
1.81
Finn Harps
1.97
Sligo Rovers is 0.39 goals worse than Derry City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 0.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sligo Rovers
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Derry City
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Sligo Rovers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (17)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Derry City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (17)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sligo Rovers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.76
0.47
0.75
0.50
0.78
0.44
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.17
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.00
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.78
0.60
0.60
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
65% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.88
0.29
1.00
0.22
0.75
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.92
0.31
1.14
0.29
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
71% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sligo Rovers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sligo Rovers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.76
0.50
0.62
0.56
0.89
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.17
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.56
0.40
0.60
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.88
0.53
0.78
0.67
1.00
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.62
0.86
0.86
1.17
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sligo Rovers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sligo Rovers · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
William Fitzgerald21%
Jad Hakiki17%
Cian Kavanagh13%
Archie Meekison10%
A. Nolan10%
Mai Traore7%
Sean McHale6%
Ryan O'Kane6%
D. Patton5%
Carl McHugh5%
J. Esua4%
G. McElroy4%
S. Sargeant0%
Shane Blaney0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Jamie McGonigle0%
Oliver Denham0%
Sean Stewart0%
S. Quirk0%
J. McManus0%
Jack Shorrock0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Guilherme Rego Priosti0%
Luke Pearce0%
Trey George0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ciaron Harkin40%
J. Esua22%
Luke Pearce20%
S. Quirk19%
Carl McHugh18%
J. McManus16%
G. McElroy14%
William Fitzgerald12%
Sean Stewart12%
Oliver Denham12%
Shane Blaney10%
A. Nolan10%
Cian Kavanagh9%
S. Sargeant7%
Mai Traore7%
Sean McHale6%
Ryan O'Kane6%
Archie Meekison5%
D. Patton5%
Jamie McGonigle0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Jack Shorrock0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Guilherme Rego Priosti0%
Trey George0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jamie McGonigle25%
Luke Pearce20%
Archie Meekison14%
William Fitzgerald12%
Cian Kavanagh9%
Sean Stewart6%
Ryan O'Kane6%
A. Nolan5%
Carl McHugh5%
J. Esua4%
S. Sargeant0%
Shane Blaney0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Mai Traore0%
Oliver Denham0%
S. Quirk0%
J. McManus0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Jack Shorrock0%
G. McElroy0%
D. Patton0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Guilherme Rego Priosti0%
Sean McHale0%
Trey George0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cian Kavanagh22%
Mai Traore7%
S. Quirk6%
Ryan O'Kane6%
A. Nolan5%
S. Sargeant0%
Shane Blaney0%
Carl McHugh0%
Archie Meekison0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
William Fitzgerald0%
J. Esua0%
Jamie McGonigle0%
Oliver Denham0%
Sean Stewart0%
J. McManus0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Jack Shorrock0%
G. McElroy0%
D. Patton0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Guilherme Rego Priosti0%
Sean McHale0%
Luke Pearce0%
Trey George0%
Derry City · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kévin Santos30%
Ellis Chapman25%
Tyler Smith25%
Michael Duffy24%
James Clarke22%
Afolabi Akinyemi18%
Alex Bannon17%
Liam Boyce14%
Henry Rylah14%
C. Dummigan11%
Adam O'Reilly8%
B. Cotter8%
Darragh Markey6%
Josh Thomas5%
Conor Barr5%
Patrick McClean5%
J. Olayinka4%
C. Winchester0%
Brandon Fleming0%
J. McClean0%
Gavin Whyte0%
Jamie Stott0%
Brian Maher0%
Ben Doherty0%
R. Slevin0%
Darragh Burns0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
Eddie Beach0%
Nick Twisk0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster67%
Patrick McClean36%
Gavin Whyte33%
Jamie Stott32%
Adam O'Reilly28%
C. Dummigan28%
Darragh Markey28%
J. McClean25%
Darragh Burns25%
Brandon Fleming24%
C. Winchester23%
Josh Thomas21%
B. Cotter20%
Ben Doherty18%
James Clarke17%
Liam Boyce14%
R. Slevin12%
Kévin Santos10%
J. Olayinka8%
Henry Rylah7%
Afolabi Akinyemi6%
Michael Duffy5%
Eddie Beach5%
Ellis Chapman0%
Tyler Smith0%
Brian Maher0%
Nick Twisk0%
Alex Bannon0%
Conor Barr0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Darragh Burns50%
Gavin Whyte33%
J. McClean25%
Michael Duffy19%
Alex Bannon17%
Liam Boyce14%
Kévin Santos10%
Ben Doherty9%
Brandon Fleming8%
Adam O'Reilly8%
Henry Rylah7%
C. Dummigan6%
Jamie Stott5%
Patrick McClean5%
James Clarke4%
J. Olayinka4%
Ellis Chapman0%
C. Winchester0%
Tyler Smith0%
Brian Maher0%
Darragh Markey0%
B. Cotter0%
Afolabi Akinyemi0%
R. Slevin0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
Josh Thomas0%
Eddie Beach0%
Nick Twisk0%
Conor Barr0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Michael Duffy43%
Ellis Chapman25%
Liam Boyce14%
Afolabi Akinyemi6%
Josh Thomas5%
Patrick McClean5%
James Clarke4%
J. Olayinka4%
Brandon Fleming4%
Adam O'Reilly4%
C. Winchester0%
J. McClean0%
Tyler Smith0%
Gavin Whyte0%
Jamie Stott0%
C. Dummigan0%
Brian Maher0%
Darragh Markey0%
B. Cotter0%
Ben Doherty0%
R. Slevin0%
Darragh Burns0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
Eddie Beach0%
Nick Twisk0%
Alex Bannon0%
Kévin Santos0%
Henry Rylah0%
Conor Barr0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
FH (2)
€0m
Sligo Rovers's squad is €1m less valuable than Derry City's (€3m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
Sligo Rovers and Derry City have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
Sligo Rovers and Derry City have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
FH (0)
€0m
Sligo Rovers and Derry City have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
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Shamrock Rovers
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
UCD
Finn Harps
Waterford