PythiaFootballBETA
The contest between Sligo Rovers and Drogheda United is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win but only by a slim margin. Home advantage is reflected in a 37 % chance of victory, 28 % for a draw, and 35 % for an away win. The expected total goals sit at 2.7, with the most probable total being two goals at 25 %. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.3 % probability.
Sligo Rovers, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.25 goals scored and 1.88 conceded. Drogheda United, on the road, average 1.33 scored and 1.56 conceded against comparable opposition. These figures suggest a modestly defensive game.
The model’s selections include Under 25.5 fouls at 83.4 %, Over 2.5 cards at 78.6 %, Over 1.5 goals at 77.0 %, Under 5.5 cards at 75.7 %, Over 8.5 corners at 74.2 %, Under 23.5 fouls at 71.0 %, and Under 3.5 goals at 70.6 %. Each pick is listed with its probability, and edge percentages are noted where provided.
Sligo Rovers’ home form had just ended a draw, while Drogheda United were coming off a defeat, yet the pre-match favourite, Home win, with a 37 % probability, failed to materialise as the match finished 2-2, a draw. The model’s call was therefore incorrect. The suggested picks were mixed: Under 25.5 fouls missed, Over 2.5 cards hit, Over 1.5 hit, Under 5.5 cards hit, Over 8.5 corners hit, Under 23.5 fouls missed, and Under 3.5 missed. Each selection’s probability was noted, with the hit selections reaching 78.6 %, 77.0 %, 75.7 %, and 74.2 % respectively, while the misses were 83.4 %, 71.0 %, and 70.6 %. The final result was a stalemate.
Sligo Rovers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 1.53 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.75 | 1.56 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.82 | 1.45 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.89 | 1.61 | 1.25 | 1.88 | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-6pp vs league) | |||||
Drogheda United| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 1.67 | 1.19 | 1.38 | 1.14 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.78 | 2.00 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.35 | 1.60 | 1.36 | 1.64 | 1.33 | 1.56 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-6pp vs league) | |||||
| Drogheda United goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 7.8% | 13% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 6.3% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Sligo RoversDrogheda UnitedSligo Rovers| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.0 | 10.6 | 11.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 19.3 | 20.5 | 18.0 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 10.1 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 18.8 | 21.4 | 16.2 |
| vs Similar (30) | 11.3 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 19.4 | 19.7 | 19.1 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 12.7 | 11.0 | 16.0 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 20.3 | 22.5 | 16.0 |
| % over line | 59% | 56% | 62% | 54% | 60% | 48% | 27% | 32% | 21% |
| % under line | 41% | 44% | 38% | 46% | 40% | 52% | 73% | 68% | 79% |
Drogheda United| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.1 | 9.9 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 21.6 | 21.4 | 21.7 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 21.2 | 21.2 | 21.1 |
| vs Similar (30) | 10.7 | 10.3 | 11.0 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 21.7 | 21.4 | 22.0 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 10.3 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 |
| % over line | 45% | 42% | 48% | 64% | 76% | 52% | 57% | 54% | 60% |
| % under line | 55% | 58% | 52% | 36% | 24% | 48% | 43% | 46% | 40% |
Sligo Rovers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.53 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.31 | 0.56 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.39 | 0.56 | 0.62 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
Drogheda United| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.81 | 0.69 | 0.14 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.22 | 0.89 | 0.25 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.60 | 0.65 | 1.00 | 0.73 | 0.11 | 0.56 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Sligo Rovers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 1.00 | 0.43 | 1.00 | 0.44 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.27 | 0.91 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.50 | 1.06 | 0.62 | 1.38 | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+14pp vs league) | |||||
Drogheda United| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.97 | 0.38 | 0.69 | 1.00 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.56 | 1.11 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.75 | 0.95 | 0.36 | 0.91 | 1.22 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+4pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 25.5 fouls | 83.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 2.5 cards | 78.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 77.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 75.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 8.5 corners | 74.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 23.5 fouls | 71.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 70.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 19/09/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 20/06/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 02/05/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 21/02/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 23/08/24 | A | 7-0 | |
| 03/06/24 | H | 2-1 |
Sligo Rovers| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 03/07/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 27/06/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 19/06/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 12/06/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 29/05/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 22/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 08/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 04/05/26 | H | 1-1 |
Drogheda United| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 03/07/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 26/06/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 19/06/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 12/06/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 29/05/26 | H | 3-3 | |
| 22/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 18/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 15/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 08/05/26 | H | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Shamrock Rovers | 27 | 54 | 59% | 2.0 | 43 | 24 | +19 | 2.5 | 70% | 44% | 26% | 8.3 | 15% | 4.9 | 76% | 23.3 | 58% | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 63% |
| 2 |  St Patrick's Athl. | 28 | 50 | 50% | 1.8 | 45 | 23 | +22 | 2.4 | 75% | 36% | 29% | 10.2 | 70% | 4.8 | 69% | 23.1 | 59% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 54% |
| 3 |  Bohemians | 28 | 47 | 46% | 1.7 | 47 | 34 | +13 | 2.9 | 79% | 57% | 36% | 10.1 | 59% | 4.2 | 56% | 23.1 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 58% |
| 4 |  Dundalk | 28 | 37 | 32% | 1.3 | 43 | 43 | +0 | 3.1 | 89% | 61% | 36% | 10.9 | 70% | 5.2 | 70% | 24.0 | 74% | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 5 |  Shelbourne | 26 | 34 | 31% | 1.3 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 2.8 | 77% | 65% | 31% | 9.6 | 52% | 5.4 | 72% | 20.8 | 52% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 53% |
| 6 |  Derry City | 28 | 33 | 25% | 1.2 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 2.7 | 71% | 50% | 29% | 10.3 | 63% | 5.0 | 70% | 23.2 | 63% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 7 |  Galway United | 27 | 33 | 30% | 1.2 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 2.8 | 74% | 52% | 33% | 10.8 | 62% | 3.9 | 58% | 23.8 | 69% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 39% |
| 8 |  Waterford | 28 | 29 | 21% | 1.0 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 3.0 | 79% | 46% | 39% | 11.6 | 63% | 4.2 | 56% | 22.9 | 67% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 39% |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 28 | 28 | 21% | 1.0 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 2.7 | 75% | 50% | 32% | 10.4 | 48% | 4.4 | 63% | 22.8 | 67% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 40% |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 28 | 23 | 18% | 0.8 | 23 | 45 | -22 | 2.4 | 71% | 46% | 29% | 10.9 | 59% | 4.0 | 48% | 19.4 | 33% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 47% |