This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.93
2.00
0.81
1.00
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (13)
1.54
1.00
1.71
0.71
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (15)
1.73
0.60
2.50
0.75
0.86
0.43
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
54.0%
Under 1.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
26.0%
Under 2.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
10.3%
Under 3.5
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
33.4%
No
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0 â
18.3%
0-1
17.8%
1-1
13.7%
0-2
10.6%
1-0
9.9%
1-2
6.9%
2-1
4.1%
0-3
3.9%
Sligo Rovers goals ↓
Shamrock Rovers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
18%
18%
11%
3.9%
1.1%
1
9.9%
14%
6.9%
2.6%
0.7%
2
3.6%
4.1%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
3
0.8%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
4
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sligo Rovers goals (down), columns = Shamrock Rovers goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Shelbourne
1.75
Shamrock Rovers
1.69
St Patrick's Athl.
1.64
Derry City
1.53
Galway United
1.44
Sligo Rovers
1.36
Waterford
1.25
Bohemians
1.17
Drogheda United
1.00
Dundalk
0.72
Bray Wanderers
0.00
Sligo Rovers is 0.33 points worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 1.69).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Patrick's Athl.
1.42
Shamrock Rovers
1.39
Derry City
1.33
Waterford
1.19
Drogheda United
1.19
Shelbourne
1.11
Sligo Rovers
1.11
Bohemians
1.08
Bray Wanderers
1.00
Galway United
0.92
Dundalk
0.64
Sligo Rovers is 0.28 goals worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.39).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shelbourne
0.75
Galway United
0.81
Derry City
0.86
Shamrock Rovers
0.97
St Patrick's Athl.
1.03
Bohemians
1.19
Waterford
1.31
Dundalk
1.39
Sligo Rovers
1.42
Drogheda United
1.59
Bray Wanderers
3.00
Sligo Rovers is 0.44 goals worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 0.97).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
62%
Derry City
56%
Shelbourne
53%
St Patrick's Athl.
53%
Bohemians
52%
Waterford
50%
Dundalk
48%
Sligo Rovers
48%
Drogheda United
39%
Galway United
39%
Sligo Rovers is 14.7 percentage points worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of average possession (48% vs 62%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Sligo Rovers
For 4.0 · Against 3.6 · Total 7.6
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.9 · Against 2.3 · Total 6.2
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.6 · Against 11.5 · Total 27.1
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Shamrock Rovers
For 7.2 · Against 3.4 · Total 10.6
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.3
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 10.5 · Total 23.3
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sligo Rovers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.0
8.9
7.1
2.0
2.2
1.8
27.7
27.9
27.4
vs Stronger (17)
7.8
7.7
8.0
2.2
2.4
1.9
27.2
29.7
24.7
vs Similar (33)
8.1
9.5
6.7
1.9
2.1
1.8
27.9
27.0
28.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
28%
33%
22%
32%
32%
32%
94%
100%
89%
% under line
72%
67%
78%
68%
68%
68%
6%
0%
11%
This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.9
10.8
2.1
2.0
2.2
22.9
22.1
23.8
vs Stronger (4)
12.8
13.0
12.0
4.8
5.3
3.0
20.2
21.7
16.0
vs Similar (23)
11.8
12.6
11.1
2.7
2.0
3.4
23.9
22.2
25.3
vs Weaker (23)
8.8
8.0
9.8
1.2
1.2
1.2
22.8
22.2
23.5
% over line
72%
69%
75%
28%
27%
29%
67%
62%
73%
% under line
28%
31%
25%
72%
73%
71%
33%
38%
27%
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bohemians
11.3
Shamrock Rovers
10.2
Waterford
10.2
Derry City
10.0
Drogheda United
9.9
Galway United
9.4
St Patrick's Athl.
9.2
Shelbourne
8.8
Sligo Rovers
8.5
Dundalk
7.8
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
St Patrick's Athl.
6.2
Shelbourne
6.0
Bohemians
5.5
Sligo Rovers
5.5
Waterford
5.3
Derry City
5.3
Dundalk
5.3
Galway United
4.8
Shamrock Rovers
4.8
Drogheda United
4.1
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dundalk
27.8
Sligo Rovers
27.3
Galway United
26.2
Shelbourne
26.2
St Patrick's Athl.
25.5
Waterford
24.8
Bohemians
24.7
Derry City
24.0
Shamrock Rovers
23.1
Drogheda United
21.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
53.4%
Under 9.5
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
79.5%
Under 3.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
80.6%
Under 21.5
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sligo Rovers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.47
0.53
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.60
0.20
0.40
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.90
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.40
0.75
0.44
0.14
0.36
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.38
0.43
0.29
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (15)
0.67
0.27
1.12
0.50
0.14
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sligo Rovers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sligo Rovers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.77
0.40
0.47
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.80
0.20
0.60
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.75
0.50
0.40
0.30
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.53
1.25
0.38
0.86
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
1.23
0.62
1.29
0.43
1.17
0.83
vs Weaker (15)
1.07
0.33
1.38
0.25
0.71
0.43
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sligo Rovers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 3.5 cards
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 2.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Sligo Rovers
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Wilson Waweru25%
Ellis Chapman21%
Fabrice Hartmann19%
Max Mata14%
Simon Power11%
Luke Pearce10%
Connor Malley9%
William Fitzgerald7%
Reece Hutchinson6%
Kailin Barlow4%
Niall Morahan3%
Stephen Mallon0%
Edward McGinty0%
John Ross Wilson0%
Stefan RadosavljeviÄ0%
Nando Pijnaker0%
Oliver Denham0%
Rein Smit0%
Charlie Wiggett0%
Jack Henry-Francis0%
Owen Elding0%
Gareth McElroy0%
Conor Reynolds0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Daire Patton0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Conor Reynolds75%
Nando Pijnaker50%
Niall Morahan38%
Gareth McElroy33%
Charlie Wiggett29%
John Ross Wilson28%
Oliver Denham24%
Reece Hutchinson23%
Connor Malley21%
Luke Pearce20%
Kyle McDonagh20%
Ellis Chapman18%
Rein Smit18%
Stephen Mallon17%
Fabrice Hartmann14%
Kailin Barlow12%
Simon Power11%
Jack Henry-Francis10%
Owen Elding10%
William Fitzgerald7%
Stefan RadosavljeviÄ7%
Edward McGinty6%
Wilson Waweru4%
Max Mata0%
Daire Patton0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fabrice Hartmann19%
Nando Pijnaker14%
Max Mata14%
Simon Power11%
William Fitzgerald10%
Jack Henry-Francis10%
Ellis Chapman9%
John Ross Wilson7%
Stefan RadosavljeviÄ7%
Oliver Denham6%
Charlie Wiggett5%
Wilson Waweru4%
Niall Morahan3%
Stephen Mallon0%
Connor Malley0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Edward McGinty0%
Luke Pearce0%
Rein Smit0%
Kailin Barlow0%
Owen Elding0%
Gareth McElroy0%
Conor Reynolds0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Daire Patton0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Simon Power22%
Ellis Chapman12%
Luke Pearce10%
Fabrice Hartmann10%
Nando Pijnaker7%
Max Mata7%
William Fitzgerald7%
Stefan RadosavljeviÄ7%
Connor Malley6%
Stephen Mallon0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Edward McGinty0%
Niall Morahan0%
John Ross Wilson0%
Wilson Waweru0%
Oliver Denham0%
Rein Smit0%
Charlie Wiggett0%
Jack Henry-Francis0%
Kailin Barlow0%
Owen Elding0%
Gareth McElroy0%
Conor Reynolds0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Daire Patton0%
Shamrock Rovers
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Johnny Kenny46%
Aaron Greene17%
Dylan Watts16%
Graham Burke16%
Darragh Burns15%
Rory Gaffney12%
Cory O'Sullivan12%
Neil Farrugia11%
Marc McNulty10%
Sean Hoare8%
Richie Towell7%
Daniel Mandroiu7%
Markus Poom6%
Joshua Honohan5%
Jack Byrne4%
Darragh Nugent3%
Dan Cleary3%
Roberto Lopes2%
Leon Pohls0%
Lee Grace0%
Sean Kavanagh0%
Trevor Clarke0%
Aaron McEneff0%
Gary O'Neill0%
Conan Noonan0%
Cian Barrett0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rory Gaffney38%
Dan Cleary34%
Roberto Lopes27%
Richie Towell27%
Markus Poom26%
Dylan Watts24%
Lee Grace23%
Joshua Honohan21%
Trevor Clarke21%
Graham Burke19%
Johnny Kenny17%
Gary O'Neill17%
Conan Noonan14%
Daniel Mandroiu13%
Aaron McEneff12%
Darragh Nugent12%
Leon Pohls12%
Darragh Burns12%
Marc McNulty10%
Sean Hoare8%
Sean Kavanagh8%
Aaron Greene8%
Jack Byrne8%
Neil Farrugia7%
Cory O'Sullivan0%
Cian Barrett0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Conan Noonan19%
Dylan Watts19%
Darragh Burns18%
Neil Farrugia15%
Graham Burke12%
Jack Byrne12%
Markus Poom10%
Johnny Kenny9%
Daniel Mandroiu7%
Darragh Nugent6%
Aaron Greene6%
Trevor Clarke4%
Gary O'Neill3%
Dan Cleary3%
Joshua Honohan2%
Rory Gaffney0%
Richie Towell0%
Marc McNulty0%
Sean Hoare0%
Leon Pohls0%
Lee Grace0%
Sean Kavanagh0%
Roberto Lopes0%
Aaron McEneff0%
Cory O'Sullivan0%
Cian Barrett0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Johnny Kenny40%
Graham Burke31%
Rory Gaffney25%
Marc McNulty20%
Darragh Burns18%
Cory O'Sullivan12%
Sean Hoare8%
Dylan Watts8%
Aaron Greene6%
Trevor Clarke4%
Neil Farrugia4%
Dan Cleary3%
Joshua Honohan2%
Richie Towell0%
Jack Byrne0%
Markus Poom0%
Leon Pohls0%
Lee Grace0%
Sean Kavanagh0%
Roberto Lopes0%
Aaron McEneff0%
Darragh Nugent0%
Daniel Mandroiu0%
Gary O'Neill0%
Conan Noonan0%
Cian Barrett0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
BW (1)
€0m
Sligo Rovers's squad is €4m less valuable than Shamrock Rovers's (€3m vs €7m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
Sligo Rovers's attack is €2m less valuable than Shamrock Rovers's (€1m vs €3m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
Sligo Rovers's midfield is €1m less valuable than Shamrock Rovers's (€1m vs €2m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
BW (0)
€0m
Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
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Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
Galway United
Waterford
Bohemians
Drogheda United
Dundalk
Bray Wanderers