This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St Patrick's Athl.
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.07
1.67
0.87
1.33
1.27
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.67
1.24
1.60
1.00
1.73
1.45
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
0.80
2.67
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.3%
Under 1.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.3%
Under 2.5
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.2%
Under 3.5
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.1%
No
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.8%
0-1
11.0%
1-0
9.9%
1-2
7.8%
0-2 ✓
7.3%
2-1
7.2%
2-0
6.1%
Sligo Rovers goals ↓
St Patrick's Athl. goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
11%
7.3%
2.9%
0.8%
1
9.9%
15%
7.8%
3.1%
0.9%
2
6.1%
7.2%
4.2%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.2%
2.6%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sligo Rovers goals (down), columns = St Patrick's Athl. goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shelbourne
1.75
Shamrock Rovers
1.69
St Patrick's Athl.
1.64
Derry City
1.53
Galway United
1.44
Sligo Rovers
1.36
Waterford
1.25
Bohemians
1.17
Drogheda United
1.00
Dundalk
0.72
Bray Wanderers
0.00
Sligo Rovers is 0.28 points worse than St Patrick's Athl. in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 1.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Patrick's Athl.
1.42
Shamrock Rovers
1.39
Derry City
1.33
Waterford
1.19
Drogheda United
1.19
Shelbourne
1.11
Sligo Rovers
1.11
Bohemians
1.08
Bray Wanderers
1.00
Galway United
0.92
Dundalk
0.64
Sligo Rovers is 0.31 goals worse than St Patrick's Athl. in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shelbourne
0.75
Galway United
0.81
Derry City
0.86
Shamrock Rovers
0.97
St Patrick's Athl.
1.03
Bohemians
1.19
Waterford
1.31
Dundalk
1.39
Sligo Rovers
1.42
Drogheda United
1.59
Bray Wanderers
3.00
Sligo Rovers is 0.39 goals worse than St Patrick's Athl. in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
62%
Derry City
56%
Shelbourne
53%
St Patrick's Athl.
53%
Bohemians
52%
Waterford
50%
Dundalk
48%
Sligo Rovers
48%
Drogheda United
39%
Galway United
39%
Sligo Rovers is 5.0 percentage points worse than St Patrick's Athl. in terms of average possession (48% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sligo Rovers
For 5.1 · Against 5.9 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 12.0 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
St Patrick's Athl.
For 5.4 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 11.8 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sligo Rovers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.2
9.3
5.0
5.3
4.6
26.2
26.7
25.6
vs Stronger (16)
9.9
9.6
10.2
6.3
7.3
5.6
26.9
27.9
26.2
vs Similar (34)
8.9
9.1
8.7
4.4
4.6
4.1
25.8
26.2
25.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
38%
50%
70%
72%
68%
90%
96%
83%
% under line
56%
62%
50%
30%
28%
32%
10%
4%
17%
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St Patrick's Athl.
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.0
10.5
4.4
4.4
4.4
25.1
25.6
24.6
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
9.8
8.9
10.6
4.8
4.9
4.6
24.8
25.7
24.1
vs Weaker (10)
9.6
9.2
10.2
5.0
4.3
6.0
25.9
25.3
26.8
% over line
42%
38%
45%
66%
68%
64%
70%
67%
73%
% under line
58%
62%
55%
34%
32%
36%
30%
33%
27%
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bohemians
10.9
Shamrock Rovers
10.3
Waterford
10.1
St Patrick's Athl.
9.8
Derry City
9.7
Drogheda United
9.6
Galway United
9.4
Sligo Rovers
9.3
Dundalk
8.8
Shelbourne
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Shelbourne
6.1
Bohemians
5.8
Waterford
5.4
St Patrick's Athl.
5.4
Sligo Rovers
5.3
Shamrock Rovers
5.3
Derry City
5.2
Dundalk
5.1
Galway United
4.7
Drogheda United
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Sligo Rovers
26.0
Shelbourne
25.5
Dundalk
25.2
Bohemians
24.9
St Patrick's Athl.
24.9
Waterford
24.9
Derry City
24.3
Galway United
24.2
Shamrock Rovers
23.8
Drogheda United
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
54.1%
Under 9.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
77.6%
Under 3.5
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
72.6%
Under 21.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sligo Rovers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.64
0.29
0.44
0.69
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.43
0.73
0.36
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St Patrick's Athl.
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.93
0.47
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.52
0.90
0.50
0.73
0.55
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.60
1.33
0.67
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sligo Rovers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sligo Rovers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.03
0.71
0.57
0.44
1.44
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.22
1.33
0.33
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.95
0.55
0.64
0.50
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St Patrick's Athl.
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.73
0.40
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.71
0.70
0.50
1.00
0.91
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.20
1.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sligo Rovers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sligo Rovers
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Wilson Waweru25%
Ellis Chapman21%
Fabrice Hartmann19%
Max Mata14%
Simon Power11%
Luke Pearce10%
Connor Malley9%
William Fitzgerald7%
Reece Hutchinson6%
Kailin Barlow4%
Niall Morahan3%
Stephen Mallon0%
Edward McGinty0%
John Ross Wilson0%
Stefan Radosavljević0%
Nando Pijnaker0%
Oliver Denham0%
Rein Smit0%
Charlie Wiggett0%
Jack Henry-Francis0%
Owen Elding0%
Gareth McElroy0%
Conor Reynolds0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Daire Patton0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Conor Reynolds75%
Nando Pijnaker50%
Niall Morahan38%
Gareth McElroy33%
Charlie Wiggett29%
John Ross Wilson28%
Oliver Denham24%
Reece Hutchinson23%
Connor Malley21%
Luke Pearce20%
Kyle McDonagh20%
Ellis Chapman18%
Rein Smit18%
Stephen Mallon17%
Fabrice Hartmann14%
Kailin Barlow12%
Simon Power11%
Jack Henry-Francis10%
Owen Elding10%
William Fitzgerald7%
Stefan Radosavljević7%
Edward McGinty6%
Wilson Waweru4%
Max Mata0%
Daire Patton0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fabrice Hartmann19%
Nando Pijnaker14%
Max Mata14%
Simon Power11%
William Fitzgerald10%
Jack Henry-Francis10%
Ellis Chapman9%
John Ross Wilson7%
Stefan Radosavljević7%
Oliver Denham6%
Charlie Wiggett5%
Wilson Waweru4%
Niall Morahan3%
Stephen Mallon0%
Connor Malley0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Edward McGinty0%
Luke Pearce0%
Rein Smit0%
Kailin Barlow0%
Owen Elding0%
Gareth McElroy0%
Conor Reynolds0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Daire Patton0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Simon Power22%
Ellis Chapman12%
Luke Pearce10%
Fabrice Hartmann10%
Nando Pijnaker7%
Max Mata7%
William Fitzgerald7%
Stefan Radosavljević7%
Connor Malley6%
Stephen Mallon0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Edward McGinty0%
Niall Morahan0%
John Ross Wilson0%
Wilson Waweru0%
Oliver Denham0%
Rein Smit0%
Charlie Wiggett0%
Jack Henry-Francis0%
Kailin Barlow0%
Owen Elding0%
Gareth McElroy0%
Conor Reynolds0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Daire Patton0%
St Patrick's Athl.
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aidan Keena50%
Ruairi Keating18%
Jake Mulraney16%
Mason Melia16%
Brandon Kavanagh15%
Al-Amin Kazeem14%
Joe Redmond13%
Zachary Elbouzedi10%
Alex Nolan9%
Christopher Forrester9%
Tom Grivosti8%
Luke Turner7%
Jamie Lennon6%
Cian Kavanagh6%
Romal Palmer6%
Conor Keeley5%
Jason McClelland5%
Anto Breslin3%
Ryan McLaughlin0%
Danny Rogers0%
Aaron Bolger0%
Axel Sjoberg0%
Kieran Freeman0%
Joseph Anang0%
Marcelo Pitaluga0%
Kian Leavy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcelo Pitaluga50%
Ryan McLaughlin40%
Tom Grivosti38%
Jamie Lennon33%
Conor Keeley32%
Christopher Forrester20%
Joe Redmond19%
Aaron Bolger18%
Anto Breslin17%
Luke Turner15%
Al-Amin Kazeem14%
Alex Nolan14%
Axel Sjoberg11%
Romal Palmer11%
Mason Melia10%
Ruairi Keating9%
Jake Mulraney6%
Brandon Kavanagh6%
Cian Kavanagh6%
Danny Rogers5%
Kian Leavy3%
Aidan Keena0%
Zachary Elbouzedi0%
Jason McClelland0%
Kieran Freeman0%
Joseph Anang0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Brandon Kavanagh30%
Zachary Elbouzedi30%
Jake Mulraney13%
Christopher Forrester9%
Tom Grivosti8%
Joe Redmond6%
Cian Kavanagh6%
Axel Sjoberg6%
Romal Palmer6%
Conor Keeley5%
Jason McClelland5%
Anto Breslin3%
Mason Melia3%
Kian Leavy3%
Jamie Lennon3%
Ryan McLaughlin0%
Aidan Keena0%
Danny Rogers0%
Ruairi Keating0%
Aaron Bolger0%
Luke Turner0%
Kieran Freeman0%
Joseph Anang0%
Al-Amin Kazeem0%
Marcelo Pitaluga0%
Alex Nolan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ruairi Keating23%
Brandon Kavanagh21%
Aidan Keena20%
Zachary Elbouzedi10%
Christopher Forrester9%
Jake Mulraney6%
Jamie Lennon3%
Ryan McLaughlin0%
Danny Rogers0%
Tom Grivosti0%
Cian Kavanagh0%
Jason McClelland0%
Anto Breslin0%
Conor Keeley0%
Aaron Bolger0%
Axel Sjoberg0%
Joe Redmond0%
Luke Turner0%
Kieran Freeman0%
Joseph Anang0%
Al-Amin Kazeem0%
Marcelo Pitaluga0%
Romal Palmer0%
Kian Leavy0%
Alex Nolan0%
Mason Melia0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
BW (1)
€0m
Sligo Rovers's squad is €2m less valuable than St Patrick's Athl.'s (€3m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
BW (0)
€0m
Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
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Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
Galway United
Waterford
Bohemians
Drogheda United
Dundalk
Bray Wanderers