Slonim’s recent 1-2 loss to Orsha and a shaky 0.55 goals-scored average at home set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, while Molodechno-DYuSSh 4’s four-game winning streak and 1.67 goals-scored average on the road suggest they will push the ball forward. The model favours an away win, with a 49% chance, followed by a 27% home win and a 24% draw. The expected total of 3.3 goals points to a lively match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.6% probability. Slonim is expected to score 0.55 and concede 2.55 against a stronger opponent, whereas Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 should net 1.67 and allow 2.33 against a weaker side. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 85.5% probability. The match is projected to finish with an away win, but the 1-1 draw remains a realistic outcome.
Results analysis
A shocking draw ended the pre-match favourite’s run, with Slonim and Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 finishing 1-1. The model had tipped an away win with a 49% chance, but that call was wrong. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, which hit with an 85.5% probability. Slonim, coming off a defeat, had a weak home record of LWLWL, while Molodechno-DYuSSh 4, on a four-game winning streak, had a strong away form of WWWWD. The final score matched the model’s most likely 3-goal total, yet the draw was the unexpected outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Slonim win✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 win✗ Miss
49.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Slonim
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.92
2.27
0.69
2.46
1.15
2.08
vs Stronger (22)
0.86
2.32
0.55
2.55
1.18
2.09
vs Similar (4)
1.25
2.00
1.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
12% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Molodechno-DYuSSh 4) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.31
1.85
1.38
1.31
1.23
2.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.00
1.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
1.17
1.89
1.33
1.11
1.00
2.67
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
1.67
1.67
1.00
1.67
2.33
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Slonim) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.5%
Under 1.5
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.8%
Under 2.5
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.8%
Under 3.5
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.4%
No
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
10.6%
1-2
9.3%
2-1
6.8%
0-2
6.7%
2-2
6.5%
1-3
6.0%
0-1
5.9%
0-0
4.5%
Slonim goals ↓
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
5.9%
6.7%
4.3%
2.1%
1
4.0%
11%
9.3%
6.0%
2.9%
2
3.5%
6.8%
6.5%
4.2%
2.0%
3
1.6%
3.2%
3.1%
2.0%
1.0%
4
0.6%
1.1%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Slonim goals (down), columns = Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.53
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.28
FC Vitebsk
2.28
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.94
ML Vitebsk
1.91
Baranovichi
1.50
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.44
Volna
1.34
Lida
1.28
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.28
Niva
1.28
Ostrovets FC
1.22
Bumprom
1.19
Orsha
0.97
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.69
Slonim
0.69
Osipovichy
0.16
Slonim is 0.59 points worse than Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 in terms of average points per game (0.69 vs 1.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.69
ML Vitebsk
2.62
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.34
FC Vitebsk
2.12
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.94
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.72
Ostrovets FC
1.69
Niva
1.66
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.59
Orsha
1.56
Baranovichi
1.44
Bumprom
1.41
Lida
1.38
Volna
1.28
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.03
Slonim
0.81
Osipovichy
0.66
Slonim is 0.78 goals worse than Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 in terms of goals scored per game (0.81 vs 1.59).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.69
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.75
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.94
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.25
Lida
1.50
Baranovichi
1.53
Volna
1.53
ML Vitebsk
1.62
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.62
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.75
Orsha
1.94
Ostrovets FC
1.94
Bumprom
1.94
Slonim
1.97
Niva
2.06
Shakhtyor Petrikov
2.25
Osipovichy
2.66
Slonim is 0.22 goals worse than Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.97 vs 1.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Slonim
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.58
0.81
0.38
0.85
0.77
0.77
vs Stronger (22)
0.55
0.77
0.27
0.73
0.82
0.82
vs Similar (4)
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Molodechno-DYuSSh 4) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.62
0.54
0.54
0.54
0.69
0.54
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.33
0.44
0.11
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
65% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Slonim) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Slonim over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Slonim
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.35
1.46
0.31
1.62
0.38
1.31
vs Stronger (22)
0.32
1.55
0.27
1.82
0.36
1.27
vs Similar (4)
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Molodechno-DYuSSh 4) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.69
1.31
0.85
0.77
0.54
1.85
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
0.72
1.56
0.89
1.00
0.56
2.11
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
1.00
0.67
0.33
0.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
38% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Slonim) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Slonim over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
Slonim and Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
FV (13)
€2m
FDM (9)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
Slonim and Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
FDM (6)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
A( (5)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Slonim and Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
Slonim and Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Arsenal (Belarus)
FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Vitebsk
Lokomotiv Gomel
ML Vitebsk
Baranovichi
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
Volna
Lida
Niva
Ostrovets FC
Bumprom
Orsha
Shakhtyor Petrikov
Osipovichy