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Slonim vs Orsha Result & Analysis

Date: 23/07/2022
Time: 14:00
Final 3-2
Slonim
Slonim
Vs
24%
27%
49%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Orsha
Orsha
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The model favours an away win, with a 49% chance for Orsha, a 27% chance for a draw and a 24% chance for Slonim. The expected total is 2.7 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 25% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.8% chance. Orsha, playing away against a team of similar strength, averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.5 conceded, while Slonim’s home form shows a 1-2 loss in their last match and a recent 1-2 defeat. The suggested picks are Over 1.5 goals at 76.9% and Under 3.5 at 70.7%. The home win probability is 24%, the draw 27%, and the away win 49%. These figures give a concise picture of the likely shape of the encounter.

Results analysis

The upset came early as Slonim overturned expectations, winning 3-2 after a 1-2 loss to Orsha. The pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away win, came in at 49% but proved wrong. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, at 76.9%, hit, while its Under 3.5 choice, at 70.7%, missed. Slonim’s recent form, noted as coming off a defeat, and Orsha’s form, coming off a win, set the stage for a surprising home victory. The final score of 3-2 confirms the home side’s triumph, contradicting the model’s forecast.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Slonim win✓ Hit
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Orsha win✗ Miss
49.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SlonimSlonim

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L03L22D04L00D04L05L01L02L20WH·ML 16/04A·OST23/04H·MOL30/04A·VOL08/05H·LOK22/05H·BAR04/06H·SHA11/06A·LID02/07H·NAF09/07A·OSI16/07
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.362.180.332.330.402.00
vs Stronger (10)0.202.400.332.330.002.50
vs Similar (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %18% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

OrshaOrsha

Last 10 – goals for & against
90-912L19L21W10W00D11D22D13L12L22DA·BAR15/04H·SHA23/04A·LID01/05H·NAF07/05A·OSI14/05H·SMO05/06A·ML 12/06H·OST02/07A·MOL10/07H·VOL17/07
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.092.181.203.001.001.50
vs Stronger (8)1.122.501.253.001.002.00
vs Similar (3)1.001.331.003.001.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %18% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Slonim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.9%
Under 1.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.5%
Under 2.5
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.3%
Under 3.5
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.7%
No
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-2
9.6%
0-1
9.5%
0-2
8.8%
0-0
7.7%
2-1
6.3%
1-0
5.9%
1-3
5.3%
Slonim goals ↓
Orsha goals →
01234
07.7%9.5%8.8%4.8%2.0%
15.9%13%9.6%5.3%2.2%
23.8%6.3%5.2%2.9%1.2%
31.4%2.3%1.9%1.0%0.4%
40.4%0.6%0.5%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Slonim goals (down), columns = Orsha goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Naftan
2.21
Smorgon
2.17
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.88
ML Vitebsk
1.71
Ostrovets FC
1.67
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.62
Volna
1.50
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.21
Orsha
1.12
Lida
1.08
Slonim
0.75
Osipovichy
0.54
Baranovichi
0.50
Slonim is 0.38 points worse than Orsha in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 1.12).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Shakhtyor Petrikov
2.88
Naftan
2.29
Smorgon
1.92
ML Vitebsk
1.88
Volna
1.83
Ostrovets FC
1.75
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.62
Lida
1.46
Orsha
1.38
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.25
Baranovichi
1.04
Slonim
1.00
Osipovichy
0.88
Slonim is 0.38 goals worse than Orsha in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.38).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Naftan
0.79
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.83
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.00
Smorgon
1.12
ML Vitebsk
1.42
Ostrovets FC
1.42
Volna
1.46
Lida
1.79
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.88
Orsha
2.17
Slonim
2.21
Osipovichy
2.21
Baranovichi
2.88
Slonim is 0.04 goals worse than Orsha in terms of goals conceded per game (2.21 vs 2.17).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SlonimSlonim

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L01L01L00D01L01L01L01L10WH·ML 16/04A·OST23/04H·MOL30/04A·VOL08/05H·LOK22/05H·BAR04/06H·SHA11/06A·LID02/07H·NAF09/07A·OSI16/07
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.090.820.000.670.201.00
vs Stronger (10)0.000.900.000.670.001.25
vs Similar (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

OrshaOrsha

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L04L01L10W00D00D11D00D01L12LA·BAR15/04H·SHA23/04A·LID01/05H·NAF07/05A·OSI14/05H·SMO05/06A·ML 12/06H·OST02/07A·MOL10/07H·VOL17/07
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.271.000.401.200.170.83
vs Stronger (8)0.381.250.501.500.251.00
vs Similar (3)0.000.330.000.000.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %36% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Slonim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Slonim over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SlonimSlonim

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L01L21W03L00D03L04L00D01L10WH·ML 16/04A·OST23/04H·MOL30/04A·VOL08/05H·LOK22/05H·BAR04/06H·SHA11/06A·LID02/07H·NAF09/07A·OSI16/07
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.271.360.331.670.201.00
vs Stronger (10)0.201.500.331.670.001.25
vs Similar (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

OrshaOrsha

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D15L20W00D00D11D11D13L11D10WA·BAR15/04H·SHA23/04A·LID01/05H·NAF07/05A·OSI14/05H·SMO05/06A·ML 12/06H·OST02/07A·MOL10/07H·VOL17/07
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.821.180.801.800.830.67
vs Stronger (8)0.751.250.751.500.751.00
vs Similar (3)1.001.001.003.001.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %36% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Slonim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Slonim over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.570.7%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
BAR (21)
€2m
NAF (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
Slonim and Orsha have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
BAR (8)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
Slonim and Orsha have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
NAF (9)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
Slonim and Orsha have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
BAR (9)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
Slonim and Orsha have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
SLO wins
0
Draws
0
ORS wins

Head-to-head

Slonim vs Orsha · H/A from SLO
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

SlonimSlonim

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/07/22AOsipovichy Vs SLO0-2
09/07/22HSLO Vs Naftan0-2
02/07/22ALida Vs SLO1-0
11/06/22HSLO Vs Shakhtyor Petrikov0-5
04/06/22HSLO Vs Baranovichi0-4
22/05/22HSLO Vs Lokomotiv Gomel0-0
08/05/22AVolna Vs SLO4-0
30/04/22HSLO Vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 42-2
23/04/22AOstrovets FC Vs SLO3-0
16/04/22HSLO Vs ML Vitebsk0-1

OrshaOrsha

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/07/22HORS Vs Volna2-2
10/07/22AMolodechno-DYuSSh 4 Vs ORS2-1
02/07/22HORS Vs Ostrovets FC1-3
12/06/22AML Vitebsk Vs ORS2-2
05/06/22HORS Vs Smorgon1-1
14/05/22AOsipovichy Vs ORS0-0
07/05/22HORS Vs Naftan1-0
01/05/22ALida Vs ORS1-2
23/04/22HORS Vs Shakhtyor Petrikov1-9
15/04/22ABaranovichi Vs ORS2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Slonim
Slonim
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW0.45
HomeDDLLL0.33
AwayLLLLW0.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %9%0%20%
AVG goals2.552.672.40
Over 1.5 %73%67%80%
Over 2.5 %45%50%40%
Over 3.5 %36%50%20%
Scored0.360.330.40
Conceded2.182.332.00
BTTS9%17%0%
Clean Sheet18%17%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Orsha
Orsha
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLLD0.91
HomeLWDLD1.00
AwayLWDDL0.83
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%20%17%
AVG goals3.274.202.50
Over 1.5 %82%80%83%
Over 2.5 %64%60%67%
Over 3.5 %36%60%17%
Scored1.091.201.00
Conceded2.183.001.50
BTTS73%80%67%
Clean Sheet18%20%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1NaftanNaftan2453
67%
2.2
5519+36
3.1
79%
62%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.30.8
-
2SmorgonSmorgon2452
67%
2.2
4627+19
3.0
83%
58%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.91.1
-
3Shakhtyor PetrikovShakhtyor Petrikov2445
54%
1.9
6920+49
3.7
79%
71%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.90.8
-
4ML VitebskML Vitebsk2441
50%
1.7
4534+11
3.3
71%
67%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
6351.91.4
-
5Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC2440
46%
1.7
4234+8
3.2
83%
67%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.81.4
-
6Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel2439
42%
1.6
3924+15
2.6
71%
54%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
7VolnaVolna2436
42%
1.5
4435+9
3.3
88%
62%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.81.5
-
8Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 42429
29%
1.2
3045-15
3.1
88%
62%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.9
-
9OrshaOrsha2427
29%
1.1
3352-19
3.5
83%
71%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.42.2
-
10LidaLida2426
25%
1.1
3543-8
3.2
83%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.51.8
-
11SlonimSlonim2418
21%
0.8
2453-29
3.2
83%
58%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.2
-
12OsipovichyOsipovichy2413
12%
0.5
2153-32
3.1
79%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.2
-
13BaranovichiBaranovichi2412
12%
0.5
2569-44
3.9
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.02.9
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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