Slovan Bratislava II hosts Šamorín in a Slovakia 2.liga match on August 9. The recent-form note highlights Šamorín's impressive 4-game winning run, while Slovan Bratislava II has suffered 3 straight defeats. Despite this, the model predicts a home win, with a 47% chance of Slovan Bratislava II winning, 24% chance of a draw, and 29% chance of Šamorín winning. The expected total goals is 3.3, with the most likely total goals being 3. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring 10.8% of the time. Slovan Bratislava II scores an average of 1.79 goals at home, conceding 1.43, while Šamorín scores 2.08 goals away, conceding 1.67. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 85.4% probability, and a 10% edge. The home win percentage is 47%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 29%. The model's selection, Over 1.5, has a 85.4% probability, and the selection, Home win, has a 47% probability.
Results analysis
The upset of the day comes from Slovakia's 2. liga, where Slovan Bratislava II's 5-game losing streak continued with a 1-2 defeat at home to Šamorín. The win extends Šamorín's impressive run to six consecutive victories. The pre-match favourite, Slovan Bratislava II, failed to deliver, with the model's selection of a home win coming up short. The model's call was incorrect, as the actual result was an away win. The model's selection of a home win had a pre-match probability of 47%. Meanwhile, the model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 85.4%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Slovan Bratislava II win✗ Miss
46.6%
Avg Implied 33.2% · @ 2.74
Edge
+13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.00
Dafabet
2.85
BetVictor
2.80
Betano
2.80
Superbet
2.75
Draw✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.37
Edge
-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Dafabet
3.45
10Bet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.43
Šamorín win✓ Hit
29.0%
Avg Implied 39.8% · @ 2.28
Edge
-10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.36
10Bet
2.35
Dafabet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.30
Betano
2.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Slovan Bratislava II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.73
2.00
1.40
1.07
2.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.53
1.73
2.00
1.40
1.07
2.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Šamorín) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šamorín
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.37
1.27
1.00
2.00
1.73
vs Stronger (4)
3.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
3.67
2.33
vs Similar (25)
1.36
1.28
1.15
1.00
1.58
1.58
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Slovan Bratislava II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.4%
@ 1.20+9.6%
Under 1.5
14.6%
@ 3.77-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Under
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
3.90
1xBet
3.74
Marathonbet
3.74
Unibet
3.65
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.5%
@ 1.71+10.5%
Under 2.5
35.5%
@ 2.01-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.75
Pinnacle
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Under
BetVictor
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.05
Bet365
2.05
Betfair
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.5%
@ 2.71+8.8%
Under 3.5
57.5%
@ 1.38-8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.78
10Bet
2.75
Unibet
2.75
Superbet
2.67
Under
10Bet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.8%
@ 1.58+7.7%
No
34.2%
@ 2.19-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.61
Betfair
1.60
William Hil
1.60
BetVictor
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
No
Betfair
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
Superbet
2.20
10Bet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%@ 5.98+3.9%
2-1
9.2%@ 9.13+4.7%
1-2 ✓
7.1%@ 8.17+2.1%
2-2
6.7%@ 10.57+2.8%
2-0
6.3%@ 12.83+3.1%
1-0
5.8%@ 9.33+1.3%
3-1
5.7%@ 16.67+3.2%
0-0
4.6%@ 11.07+0.9%
Slovan Bratislava II goals ↓
Šamorín goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
4.3%
3.8%
1.8%
0.7%
1
5.8%
11%
7.1%
3.4%
1.2%
2
6.3%
9.2%
6.7%
3.2%
1.2%
3
3.9%
5.7%
4.2%
2.0%
0.7%
4
1.8%
2.7%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Slovan Bratislava II goals (down), columns = Šamorín goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Petržalka
3.00
Šamorín
2.50
Považská Bystrica
1.67
Žilina II
1.67
Pohronie
1.67
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.67
Tatran Prešov
1.67
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.33
Inter Bratislava
1.17
Galanta
1.17
Humenné
1.00
Zlaté Moravce
0.83
Slovan Bratislava II
0.83
Malženice
0.80
MFK Bytča
0.60
Lokomotíva Zvolen
0.50
Slovan Bratislava II is 1.67 points worse than Šamorín in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 2.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Petržalka
2.67
Šamorín
2.17
Pohronie
2.00
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.83
Považská Bystrica
1.67
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.67
Inter Bratislava
1.50
Tatran Prešov
1.50
Slovan Bratislava II
1.50
Malženice
1.40
Žilina II
1.00
Zlaté Moravce
0.83
Humenné
0.67
Lokomotíva Zvolen
0.67
Galanta
0.67
MFK Bytča
0.60
Slovan Bratislava II is 0.67 goals worse than Šamorín in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 2.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Petržalka
0.33
Šamorín
1.00
Žilina II
1.00
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.00
Zlaté Moravce
1.17
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.17
Inter Bratislava
1.17
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.33
Humenné
1.50
Galanta
1.50
Považská Bystrica
1.67
Pohronie
1.67
Tatran Prešov
1.67
Slovan Bratislava II
1.67
Malženice
1.80
MFK Bytča
3.20
Slovan Bratislava II is 0.67 goals worse than Šamorín in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Slovan Bratislava II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
1.00
0.47
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.70
0.77
1.00
0.47
0.40
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Šamorín) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šamorín
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
0.60
0.47
1.00
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.67
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.60
0.54
0.38
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Slovan Bratislava II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Slovan Bratislava II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Bratislava II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Bratislava II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šamorín over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šamorín over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šamorín over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Slovan Bratislava II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
1.00
0.93
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.83
0.97
1.00
0.93
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Šamorín) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šamorín
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
0.67
0.53
1.00
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
1.75
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.33
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.68
0.62
0.62
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Slovan Bratislava II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Slovan Bratislava II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Bratislava II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slovan Bratislava II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šamorín over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šamorín over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šamorín over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.4%
1.20
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
+9.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (19)
€2m
PET (23)
€2m
ŠAM (22)
€2m
POH (17)
€1m
LZ (16)
€1m
ZM (14)
€1m
LM (14)
€1m
BLP (20)
€1m
PB (17)
€1m
ŽI (12)
€1m
IB (18)
€1m
SBI (18)
€1m
MAL (13)
€1m
HUM (4)
€0m
Slovan Bratislava II and Šamorín have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (7)
€1m
PET (10)
€1m
LM (8)
€1m
ŠAM (8)
€0m
ŽI (4)
€0m
POH (4)
€0m
BLP (6)
€0m
IB (5)
€0m
PB (4)
€0m
MAL (3)
€0m
ZM (3)
€0m
HUM (2)
€0m
SBI (4)
€0m
LZ (3)
€0m
Slovan Bratislava II and Šamorín have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŠAM (6)
€1m
LZ (3)
€0m
TP (4)
€0m
PB (6)
€0m
SBI (8)
€0m
PET (5)
€0m
POH (5)
€0m
ZM (4)
€0m
BLP (3)
€0m
IB (4)
€0m
LM (2)
€0m
MAL (3)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
HUM (1)
€0m
Slovan Bratislava II and Šamorín have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (8)
€1m
ZM (7)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
POH (8)
€1m
LZ (10)
€1m
ŠAM (8)
€1m
BLP (11)
€0m
ŽI (7)
€0m
PB (7)
€0m
IB (9)
€0m
MAL (7)
€0m
SBI (6)
€0m
LM (4)
€0m
HUM (1)
€0m
Slovan Bratislava II and Šamorín have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Slovakia: 2. liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovakia: 2. liga stats & trends →