Smiltene’s recent form has been shaky, with three straight defeats and a 0-6 loss to Metta, yet they average 2.38 goals at home against similar opposition. Mārūpe, however, has struggled away, losing two in a row and conceding 2.0 goals per match, yet they still manage 1.44 away goals. The model projects a high-scoring affair, expecting 3.9 goals on average, with the most likely total being three goals at a 20% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 8.6% probability. The odds favour an away win, with a 44% chance, a draw 22%, and a home win 33%. The model’s selection includes Under 7.5 (95.7%), Over 1.5 (90.6%), Under 6.5 (90.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.4%), Away over 0.5 goals (87.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (84.3%), Home over 0.5 goals (83.2%) and an Away +2 handicap (82.8%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Smiltene win
33.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mārupe win
44.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Smiltene
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
2.17
1.69
2.56
1.57
1.71
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
2.50
1.50
3.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (16)
2.00
1.56
2.38
1.50
1.62
1.62
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
3.12
0.50
4.25
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mārupe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.60
1.07
1.43
1.12
1.75
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
4.00
-
-
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (16)
1.31
1.81
1.14
1.57
1.44
2.00
vs Weaker (13)
0.85
1.15
1.00
1.29
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.6%
Under 1.5
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
74.1%
Under 2.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
53.9%
Under 3.5
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
73.6%
No
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.6%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
7.2%
2-1
7.0%
1-3
5.6%
2-3
5.0%
0-2
4.5%
3-2
4.3%
Smiltene goals ↓
Mārupe goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.9%
3.6%
4.5%
3.1%
1.6%
1
3.0%
8.6%
8.1%
5.6%
2.9%
2
3.3%
7.0%
7.2%
5.0%
2.6%
3
2.0%
4.1%
4.3%
3.0%
1.5%
4
0.9%
1.8%
1.9%
1.3%
0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Smiltene goals (down), columns = Mārupe goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Smiltene is 0.14 points better than Mārupe in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Smiltene is 0.50 goals better than Mārupe in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Smiltene is 0.90 goals worse than Mārupe in terms of goals conceded per game (3.33 vs 2.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Smiltene or Draw
55.5%
Avg Implied -
33%
22%
44%
covers Smiltene + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Smiltene or Mārupe
77.5%
Avg Implied -
33%
22%
44%
covers Smiltene + Mārupe
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Mārupe
67.0%
Avg Implied -
33%
22%
44%
covers Draw + Mārupe
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Smiltene over/under 0.5
Over
83.2%
Under
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5
Over
53.3%
Under
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5
Over
26.5%
Under
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 3.5
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 0.5
Over
87.5%
Under
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5
Over
61.5%
Under
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5
Over
34.4%
Under
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 3.5
Over
15.7%
Under
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Smiltene, so a minus line means Smiltene give that many goals of a start and Mārupe receive them. At -1, Smiltene must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Smiltene win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Smiltene)
Smiltene -2
7.3%
Draw -2
10.0%
Mārupe +2
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Smiltene)
Smiltene -1
17.2%
Draw -1
15.8%
Mārupe +1
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Smiltene)
Smiltene +1
55.5%
Draw +1
18.6%
Mārupe -1
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Smiltene)
Smiltene +2
74.1%
Draw +2
13.5%
Mārupe -2
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Smiltene
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.07
0.94
1.06
0.57
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.33
0.50
1.75
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.88
1.50
0.62
0.50
1.12
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
1.25
0.25
1.25
0.75
1.25
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mārupe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.63
0.29
0.57
0.25
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
0.31
0.69
0.29
0.57
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (13)
0.23
0.46
0.29
0.57
0.17
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Smiltene
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.10
0.75
1.50
1.00
0.64
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.17
1.00
1.25
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.69
0.88
0.88
1.12
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
1.88
0.25
3.00
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mārupe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
0.79
0.86
0.88
1.06
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
1.00
1.12
0.86
1.00
1.11
1.22
vs Weaker (13)
0.62
0.69
0.71
0.71
0.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Metta / LU
Leevon / PPK
JDFS Alberts
Riga Mariners
Skanste
Super Nova 2
Riga FC II
Tukums II
Rīgas FS II
JFK Ventspils
Rēzekne FA