Smiltene’s recent form shows a shaky start, with only two wins in five games and a 2-4 loss to Leevon / PPK, while Metta / LU rides a two-game winning streak, beating Rēzekne FA 2-0. The model therefore names an away win as the clear favourite, giving the away side an 80 % chance of triumph, a 13 % draw probability and a 7 % home win chance. The expected total of 4.1 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely total is 6 + with a 22 % chance. The single most probable scoreline is 0-3 in favour of Metta / LU, with an 8.8 % probability. Smiltene scores only 0.67 goals per home match against weaker opponents and concedes 3.67, whereas Metta / LU averages 1.38 away goals scored and 1.94 conceded against stronger sides. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.5 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.3 %), Away +2 handicap (97.6 %), Away over 0.5 goals (95.6 %), Home under 1.5 HT goals (95.4 %), Under 7.5 (94.5 %) and Home under 2.5 goals (93.1 %).
Results analysis
After a run of three straight defeats, Smiltene’s home form remains fragile, while Metta / LU hit a three-game winning streak away. The model predicted an away win with an 80% probability, and the result matched that call. The final score was 0-6, confirming the away victory. The model’s selections performed strongly: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.5%, Away +2 handicap at 97.6%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.3%, Away over 0.5 goals at 95.6%, Under 7.5 at 94.6%, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 94.2%, and Home under 2.5 goals at 93.1%. All picks were settled, with each probability expressed as a percentage.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Smiltene win✗ Miss
7.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
12.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU win✓ Hit
79.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Smiltene
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
2.00
2.00
2.25
1.57
1.71
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
2.50
1.50
3.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (16)
2.00
1.56
2.38
1.50
1.62
1.62
vs Weaker (8)
1.88
2.50
1.75
3.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Metta / LU) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metta / LU
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.2
Avg scored
3.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.83
2.50
1.71
1.38
1.94
vs Stronger (22)
1.77
1.95
2.18
1.82
1.36
2.09
vs Similar (7)
1.29
1.71
1.00
2.00
1.40
1.60
vs Weaker (1)
9.00
0.00
9.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.8%
Under 1.5
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
77.0%
Under 2.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.8%
Under 3.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.6%
No
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-3
8.8%
0-2
8.5%
1-3
8.2%
1-2
7.9%
0-4
6.9%
1-4
6.4%
1-1
5.6%
0-1
4.9%
Smiltene goals ↓
Metta / LU goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.2%
4.9%
8.5%
8.8%
6.9%
1
1.1%
5.6%
7.9%
8.2%
6.4%
2
0.8%
2.4%
3.7%
3.9%
3.0%
3
0.2%
0.7%
1.2%
1.2%
0.9%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Smiltene goals (down), columns = Metta / LU goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Smiltene is 1.67 points worse than Metta / LU in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Smiltene is 4.33 goals worse than Metta / LU in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 5.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Smiltene is 2.83 goals worse than Metta / LU in terms of goals conceded per game (3.33 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Smiltene or Draw✗ Miss
20.3%
Avg Implied -
7%
13%
80%
covers Smiltene + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Smiltene or Metta / LU✓ Hit
87.1%
Avg Implied -
7%
13%
80%
covers Smiltene + Metta / LU
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Metta / LU✓ Hit
92.6%
Avg Implied -
7%
13%
80%
covers Draw + Metta / LU
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Smiltene over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
60.8%
Under
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
24.1%
Under
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
95.6%
Under
4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
81.8%
Under
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
60.4%
Under
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
38.0%
Under
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Smiltene, so a minus line means Smiltene give that many goals of a start and Metta / LU receive them. At -1, Smiltene must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Smiltene win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Smiltene)Actual: Metta / LU
Smiltene -2
0.6%
Draw -2
1.8%
Metta / LU +2
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Smiltene)Actual: Metta / LU
Smiltene -1
2.4%
Draw -1
5.0%
Metta / LU +1
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Smiltene)Actual: Metta / LU
Smiltene +1
20.3%
Draw +1
17.7%
Metta / LU -1
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Smiltene)Actual: Metta / LU
Smiltene +2
38.0%
Draw +2
20.3%
Metta / LU -2
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Smiltene
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.10
1.12
1.12
0.57
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.33
0.50
1.75
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.88
1.50
0.62
0.50
1.12
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
1.38
1.00
1.50
0.75
1.25
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Metta / LU) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metta / LU
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.87
1.43
1.14
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (22)
0.86
1.05
1.18
1.36
0.55
0.73
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.43
0.50
0.50
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
6.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
76.4%
Under 0.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
37.0%
Under 1.5
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.8%
Under 2.5
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
30.0%
Under
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
55.3%
Under
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
23.9%
Under
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.9%
Under
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Smiltene
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.90
0.88
1.12
1.00
0.64
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.17
1.00
1.25
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.69
0.88
0.88
1.12
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
1.12
0.75
1.50
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Metta / LU) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metta / LU
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.97
1.07
0.57
0.94
1.31
vs Stronger (22)
0.91
0.91
1.00
0.45
0.82
1.36
vs Similar (7)
1.00
1.29
0.50
1.50
1.20
1.20
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
88.3%
Under 0.5
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.5%
Under 1.5
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
30.0%
Under 2.5
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
37.1%
Under
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
78.7%
Under
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
41.2%
Under
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metta / LU over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 1.5 goals
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away win
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 2H goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Leevon / PPK
JDFS Alberts
Riga Mariners
Skanste
Mārupe
Super Nova 2
Riga FC II
Tukums II
Rīgas FS II
JFK Ventspils
Rēzekne FA