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Smiltene vs Riga FC II Prediction & Stats

Date: 17/10/2026
Time: 12:00
Smiltene
Smiltene
Vs
44%
24%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Riga FC II
Riga FC II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Smiltene’s recent form, still rattled after a 0-6 loss, suggests a cautious start, yet the model favours a home win with 44% probability, a draw at 24% and an away win at 32%. The expected total of 3.4 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.6% chance. Smiltene, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 0.5 goals scored and 4.25 conceded, while Riga FC II, on the road against a stronger opponent, scores 0.5 and concedes 1.5. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.7%), Under 6.5 (94.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (88.6%), Under 5.5 (87.2%), Over 1.5 (86.1%), Home +2 handicap (84.3%) and Home over 0.5 goals (84.0%). Each pick carries its own probability, with no overlap of match-result percentages.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Smiltene win
43.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II win
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SmilteneSmiltene

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-631W13L22D11D10W35L21W14L24L06LA·AUG18/10H·RIG25/10H·RĒZ01/11H·RĪG08/11H·RĒZ19/07H·RĪG25/07A·JFK02/08H·VAL08/08A·LEE23/08H·MET29/08
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.632.171.692.561.571.71
vs Stronger (6)1.172.501.503.000.501.50
vs Similar (16)2.001.562.381.501.621.62
vs Weaker (8)1.253.120.504.252.002.00
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Riga FC IIRiga FC II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D21W12L40W21W03L22D02L13L11DA·JFK19/10H·OGR25/10A·TUK01/11H·AUG08/11H·SUP19/07A·VAL27/07H·MET01/08A·JDF08/08H·RIG24/08A·JFK29/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.631.871.600.731.67
vs Stronger (15)1.201.472.001.430.501.50
vs Similar (12)1.422.001.832.171.001.83
vs Weaker (3)1.331.001.500.501.002.00
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.1%
Under 1.5
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.8%
Under 2.5
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.9%
Under 3.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
67.2%
No
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.5%
2-2
6.9%
2-0
5.7%
3-1
5.4%
1-0
5.2%
0-0
4.3%
Smiltene goals ↓
Riga FC II goals →
01234
04.3%4.3%4.1%2.1%0.8%
15.2%11%7.5%3.9%1.5%
25.7%8.8%6.9%3.6%1.4%
33.5%5.4%4.2%2.2%0.8%
41.6%2.5%1.9%1.0%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Smiltene goals (down), columns = Riga FC II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Smiltene is 0.17 points better than Riga FC II in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.83).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Smiltene is 0.50 goals better than Riga FC II in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Smiltene is 1.33 goals worse than Riga FC II in terms of goals conceded per game (3.33 vs 2.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Smiltene or Draw
67.9%
Avg Implied -
44%
24%
32%
covers Smiltene + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Smiltene or Riga FC II
75.6%
Avg Implied -
44%
24%
32%
covers Smiltene + Riga FC II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Riga FC II
56.5%
Avg Implied -
44%
24%
32%
covers Draw + Riga FC II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Smiltene over/under 0.5
Over
84.0%
Under
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5
Over
54.7%
Under
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5
Over
27.8%
Under
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 3.5
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5
Over
78.9%
Under
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5
Over
46.1%
Under
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5
Over
20.5%
Under
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 3.5
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Smiltene, so a minus line means Smiltene give that many goals of a start and Riga FC II receive them. At -1, Smiltene must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Smiltene win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Smiltene)
Smiltene -2
10.8%
Draw -2
13.4%
Riga FC II +2
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Smiltene)
Smiltene -1
24.2%
Draw -1
19.4%
Riga FC II +1
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Smiltene)
Smiltene +1
67.9%
Draw +1
16.3%
Riga FC II -1
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Smiltene)
Smiltene +2
84.3%
Draw +2
9.7%
Riga FC II -2
6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SmilteneSmiltene

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W11D11D00D10W12L11D03L23L00DA·AUG18/10H·RIG25/10H·RĒZ01/11H·RĪG08/11H·RĒZ19/07H·RĪG25/07A·JFK02/08H·VAL08/08A·LEE23/08H·MET29/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.070.941.060.571.07
vs Stronger (6)0.501.330.501.750.500.50
vs Similar (16)1.000.881.500.620.501.12
vs Weaker (8)0.501.250.251.250.751.25
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Riga FC IIRiga FC II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D11D30W21W01L10W01L03L11DA·JFK19/10H·OGR25/10A·TUK01/11H·AUG08/11H·SUP19/07A·VAL27/07H·MET01/08A·JDF08/08H·RIG24/08A·JFK29/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.770.930.730.470.80
vs Stronger (15)0.530.600.860.430.250.75
vs Similar (12)0.831.001.001.170.670.83
vs Weaker (3)1.000.671.000.501.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SmilteneSmiltene

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-611D02L11D11D00D23L10W11D01L06LA·AUG18/10H·RIG25/10H·RĒZ01/11H·RĪG08/11H·RĒZ19/07H·RĪG25/07A·JFK02/08H·VAL08/08A·LEE23/08H·MET29/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.100.751.501.000.64
vs Stronger (6)0.671.171.001.250.001.00
vs Similar (16)1.000.690.880.881.120.50
vs Weaker (8)0.751.880.253.001.250.75
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Riga FC IIRiga FC II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W21W01L10W00D02L12L01L10W00DA·JFK19/10H·OGR25/10A·TUK01/11H·AUG08/11H·SUP19/07A·VAL27/07H·MET01/08A·JDF08/08H·RIG24/08A·JFK29/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.870.930.870.270.87
vs Stronger (15)0.670.871.141.000.250.75
vs Similar (12)0.581.000.831.000.331.00
vs Weaker (3)0.330.330.500.000.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.597.7%-------
Under 6.594.3%-------
Away under 3.5 goals92.7%-------
Home under 3.5 goals88.6%-------
Under 5.587.2%-------
Over 1.586.1%-------
Home +2 handicap84.3%-------
Home over 0.5 goals84.0%-------
Away under 2.5 goals79.5%-------
Away over 0.5 goals78.9%-------
Away +2 handicap75.8%-------
Home or Away75.6%-------
Under 4.574.6%-------
Home under 2.5 goals72.2%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (3)
€0m
M/L (4)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (2)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (1)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
SMI wins
0
Draws
6
RFI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Smiltene vs Riga FC II · H/A from SMI
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/25ARiga FC II Vs SMI0-2
06/04/25HSMI Vs Riga FC II5-1
02/11/24HSMI Vs Riga FC II0-3
20/07/24ARiga FC II Vs SMI5-1
22/10/23HSMI Vs Riga FC II0-7
01/07/23ARiga FC II Vs SMI3-0
03/09/22HSMI Vs Riga FC II0-5
30/04/22ARiga FC II Vs SMI3-0

SmilteneSmiltene

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HSMI Vs Metta / LU0-6
23/08/26ALeevon / PPK Vs SMI4-2
08/08/26HSMI Vs Valmiera / BSS1-4
02/08/26AJFK Ventspils Vs SMI1-2
25/07/26HSMI Vs Rīgas FS II3-5
19/07/26HSMI Vs Rēzekne FA1-0
08/11/25HSMI Vs Rīgas FS II1-1
01/11/25HSMI Vs Rēzekne FA2-2
25/10/25HSMI Vs Riga Mariners1-3
18/10/25AAugšdaugava Vs SMI1-3

Riga FC IIRiga FC II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AJFK Ventspils Vs RFI1-1
24/08/26HRFI Vs Riga Mariners1-3
08/08/26AJDFS Alberts Vs RFI2-0
01/08/26HRFI Vs Metta / LU2-2
27/07/26AValmiera / BSS Vs RFI3-0
19/07/26HRFI Vs Super Nova 22-1
08/11/25HRFI Vs Augšdaugava4-0
01/11/25ATukums II Vs RFI2-1
25/10/25HRFI Vs Ogre United2-1
19/10/25AJFK Ventspils Vs RFI2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Smiltene
Smiltene
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL0.94
HomeDWLLL0.70
AwayLLWWL1.22
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%19%35%
AVG goals3.623.893.30
Over 1.5 %92%93%91%
Over 2.5 %78%81%74%
Over 3.5 %48%56%39%
Scored1.441.331.57
Conceded2.182.561.74
BTTS60%52%70%
Clean Sheet12%7%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Riga FC II
Riga FC II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLD1.30
HomeWWWDL1.70
AwayDLLLD0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%48%22%
AVG goals3.143.522.81
Over 1.5 %80%83%78%
Over 2.5 %62%70%56%
Over 3.5 %40%48%33%
Scored1.662.261.15
Conceded1.481.261.67
BTTS56%65%48%
Clean Sheet22%26%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS618
100%
3.0
224+18
4.3
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.70.7
-
2Metta / LUMetta / LU616
83%
2.7
353+32
6.3
100%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0005.80.5
-
3Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK515
100%
3.0
115+6
3.2
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
4JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts614
67%
2.3
124+8
2.7
100%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.7
-
5Riga MarinersRiga Mariners513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
6SkansteSkanste610
50%
1.7
1711+6
4.7
100%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.8
-
7MārupeMārupe76
29%
0.9
717-10
3.4
86%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.4
-
8SmilteneSmiltene66
33%
1.0
920-11
4.8
83%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.53.3
-
9Super Nova 2Super Nova 275
14%
0.7
711-4
2.6
100%
57%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
10Riga FC IIRiga FC II65
17%
0.8
612-6
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
11Tukums IITukums II54
20%
0.8
720-13
5.4
100%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.44.0
-
12Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II63
17%
0.5
925-16
5.7
100%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.54.2
-
13JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils52
0%
0.4
49-5
2.6
100%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA60
0%
0.0
418-14
3.7
83%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.0
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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