Smiltene’s recent form shows a team that has struggled, having lost three straight matches and being hammered 0-6 by Metta / LU, yet they still manage an average of 2.38 goals at home against similar opposition. Riga Mariners, on the other hand, are riding a four-game winning streak, scoring 3.17 goals on the road while conceding 1.5, and their last outing ended 3-1 over Rīgas FS II. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 54% chance for Riga, a 27% chance for Smiltene, and a 19% chance of a draw. The expected total is 4.6 goals, and the most likely total is 6+, with a 30% chance of that outcome. The single most probable scoreline is 1-2 for Riga, at 7.1% probability. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 (94.7%), Away over 0.5 goals (92.9%), Under 7.5 (90.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (87.4%), Away +2 handicap (86.1%), Home over 0.5 goals (85.1%), Over 2.5 (83.2%) and Under 6.5 (82.4%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Smiltene win
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners win
53.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Smiltene
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
2.17
1.69
2.56
1.57
1.71
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
2.50
1.50
3.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (16)
2.00
1.56
2.38
1.50
1.62
1.62
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
3.12
0.50
4.25
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Riga Mariners
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.90
1.27
2.88
1.25
2.93
1.29
vs Stronger (14)
2.57
1.43
2.62
1.38
2.50
1.50
vs Similar (12)
3.00
1.33
2.83
1.17
3.17
1.50
vs Weaker (4)
3.75
0.50
4.00
1.00
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (30%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
94.7%
Under 1.5
5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
83.2%
Under 2.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
66.6%
Under 3.5
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
79.6%
No
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
7.1%
2-2
6.7%
1-3
6.2%
2-3
5.9%
1-1
5.9%
2-1
5.1%
3-2
4.3%
1-4
4.1%
Smiltene goals ↓
Riga Mariners goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.6%
2.3%
3.7%
3.3%
2.2%
1
1.5%
5.9%
7.1%
6.2%
4.1%
2
1.9%
5.1%
6.7%
5.9%
3.9%
3
1.2%
3.2%
4.3%
3.8%
2.5%
4
0.6%
1.5%
2.0%
1.8%
1.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Smiltene goals (down), columns = Riga Mariners goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Smiltene is 1.60 points worse than Riga Mariners in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Smiltene is 1.30 goals worse than Riga Mariners in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 2.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Smiltene is 2.33 goals worse than Riga Mariners in terms of goals conceded per game (3.33 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Smiltene or Draw
46.5%
Avg Implied -
27%
19%
53%
covers Smiltene + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Smiltene or Riga Mariners
80.6%
Avg Implied -
27%
19%
53%
covers Smiltene + Riga Mariners
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Riga Mariners
72.9%
Avg Implied -
27%
19%
53%
covers Draw + Riga Mariners
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Smiltene over/under 0.5
Over
85.1%
Under
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5
Over
56.8%
Under
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5
Over
29.8%
Under
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 3.5
Over
12.6%
Under
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5
Over
92.9%
Under
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5
Over
74.1%
Under
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5
Over
49.2%
Under
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 3.5
Over
27.3%
Under
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Smiltene, so a minus line means Smiltene give that many goals of a start and Riga Mariners receive them. At -1, Smiltene must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Smiltene win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Smiltene)
Smiltene -2
6.0%
Draw -2
8.0%
Riga Mariners +2
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Smiltene)
Smiltene -1
14.0%
Draw -1
13.2%
Riga Mariners +1
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Smiltene)
Smiltene +1
46.5%
Draw +1
18.4%
Riga Mariners -1
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Smiltene)
Smiltene +2
65.0%
Draw +2
15.4%
Riga Mariners -2
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Smiltene
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.07
0.94
1.06
0.57
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.33
0.50
1.75
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.88
1.50
0.62
0.50
1.12
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
1.25
0.25
1.25
0.75
1.25
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Riga Mariners
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.40
1.19
0.44
1.14
0.36
vs Stronger (14)
1.07
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.17
0.50
vs Similar (12)
1.17
0.33
1.17
0.33
1.17
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.25
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.4%
Under 0.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.8%
Under 1.5
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.4%
Under 2.5
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 HT
Over
31.0%
Under
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5 HT
Over
71.2%
Under
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5 HT
Over
34.1%
Under
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5 HT
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Smiltene
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.10
0.75
1.50
1.00
0.64
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.17
1.00
1.25
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.69
0.88
0.88
1.12
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
1.88
0.25
3.00
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Riga Mariners
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.87
1.69
0.81
1.79
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
1.50
0.93
1.62
0.88
1.33
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.83
1.00
1.67
0.83
2.00
1.17
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
0.25
2.00
0.50
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
85.6%
Under 0.5
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
58.1%
Under 1.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
32.1%
Under 2.5
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 2H
Over
37.1%
Under
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5 2H
Over
75.3%
Under
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5 2H
Over
41.7%
Under
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5 2H
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 2H goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 HT goals
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Metta / LU
Leevon / PPK
JDFS Alberts
Skanste
Mārupe
Super Nova 2
Riga FC II
Tukums II
Rīgas FS II
JFK Ventspils
Rēzekne FA