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Smiltene vs Rīgas FS II Result & Analysis

Date: 25/07/2026
Time: 11:00
Final 3-5
Smiltene
Smiltene
Vs
35%
26%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rīgas FS II
Rīgas FS II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Smiltene win✗ Miss
34.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II win✓ Hit
39.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SmilteneSmiltene

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-323L23L22D01L03L31W13L22D11D10WA·LEE30/08A·PRO13/09H·JFK20/09A·OGR27/09H·TUK05/10A·AUG18/10H·RIG25/10H·RĒZ01/11H·RĪG08/11H·RĒZ19/07
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.831.752.121.571.50
vs Stronger (5)1.201.201.001.501.331.00
vs Similar (16)1.881.752.111.781.571.71
vs Weaker (9)1.562.331.403.001.751.50
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W12L12L20W00D22D20W34L11D02LH·MĀR01/09A·LEE14/09H·PRO20/09A·JFK27/09A·OGR04/10A·TUK20/10H·AUG25/10A·RIG01/11A·SMI08/11A·TUK20/07
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.132.001.081.411.18
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)2.110.443.000.751.400.20
vs Weaker (21)1.481.431.561.221.421.58
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.7%
Under 1.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.4%
Under 2.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.0%
Under 3.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.9%
No
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
8.1%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
6.4%
1-0
6.0%
0-0
5.9%
0-2
5.9%
Smiltene goals ↓
Rīgas FS II goals →
01234
05.9%6.5%5.9%3.1%1.2%
16.0%12%8.7%4.5%1.8%
25.2%8.1%6.4%3.3%1.3%
32.5%4.0%3.1%1.6%0.6%
40.9%1.4%1.1%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Smiltene goals (down), columns = Rīgas FS II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Smiltene is 0.50 points better than Rīgas FS II in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Smiltene and Rīgas FS II are level in goals scored per game (both 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Smiltene is 0.83 goals better than Rīgas FS II in terms of goals conceded per game (3.33 vs 4.17).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SmilteneSmiltene

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L02L21W01L01L20W11D11D00D10WA·LEE30/08A·PRO13/09H·JFK20/09A·OGR27/09H·TUK05/10A·AUG18/10H·RIG25/10H·RĒZ01/11H·RĪG08/11H·RĒZ19/07
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.871.060.880.430.86
vs Stronger (5)0.600.600.501.000.670.33
vs Similar (16)0.940.811.330.560.431.14
vs Weaker (9)0.561.110.801.400.250.75
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W11D10W00D10W00D12L00D00DH·MĀR01/09A·LEE14/09H·PRO20/09A·JFK27/09A·OGR04/10A·TUK20/10H·AUG25/10A·RIG01/11A·SMI08/11A·TUK20/07
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.470.850.620.590.35
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.220.222.000.500.600.00
vs Weaker (21)0.480.570.330.670.580.50
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SmilteneSmiltene

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W21W01L00D02L11D02L11D11D00DA·LEE30/08A·PRO13/09H·JFK20/09A·OGR27/09H·TUK05/10A·AUG18/10H·RIG25/10H·RĒZ01/11H·RĪG08/11H·RĒZ19/07
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.970.691.251.140.64
vs Stronger (5)0.600.600.500.500.670.67
vs Similar (16)0.940.940.781.221.140.57
vs Weaker (9)1.001.220.601.601.500.75
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W02L01L10W00D12L20W22D11D02LH·MĀR01/09A·LEE14/09H·PRO20/09A·JFK27/09A·OGR04/10A·TUK20/10H·AUG25/10A·RIG01/11A·SMI08/11A·TUK20/07
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.671.150.460.820.82
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.890.221.000.250.800.20
vs Weaker (21)1.000.861.220.560.831.08
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (3)
€0m
M/L (4)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (2)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (1)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
SMI wins
1
Draws
6
RFI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Smiltene vs Rīgas FS II · H/A from SMI
DateH/AGameScore
08/11/25HSMI Vs Rīgas FS II1-1
20/07/25ARīgas FS II Vs SMI2-0
17/08/24HSMI Vs Rīgas FS II0-3
21/04/24ARīgas FS II Vs SMI7-0
12/11/23ARīgas FS II Vs SMI5-4
29/07/23HSMI Vs Rīgas FS II2-1
18/09/22HSMI Vs Rīgas FS II1-7
14/05/22ARīgas FS II Vs SMI5-1

SmilteneSmiltene

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/07/26HSMI Vs Rēzekne FA1-0
08/11/25HSMI Vs Rīgas FS II1-1
01/11/25HSMI Vs Rēzekne FA2-2
25/10/25HSMI Vs Riga Mariners1-3
18/10/25AAugšdaugava Vs SMI1-3
05/10/25HSMI Vs Tukums II0-3
27/09/25AOgre United Vs SMI1-0
20/09/25HSMI Vs JFK Ventspils2-2
13/09/25AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs SMI3-2
30/08/25ALeevon / PPK Vs SMI3-2

Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/07/26ATukums II Vs RFI2-0
08/11/25ASmiltene Vs RFI1-1
01/11/25ARiga Mariners Vs RFI4-3
25/10/25HRFI Vs Augšdaugava2-0
20/10/25ATukums II Vs RFI2-2
04/10/25AOgre United Vs RFI0-0
27/09/25AJFK Ventspils Vs RFI0-2
20/09/25HRFI Vs Progress / AFA Olaine1-2
14/09/25ALeevon / PPK Vs RFI2-1
01/09/25HRFI Vs Mārupe4-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Smiltene
Smiltene
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDDW0.96
HomeLLDDW0.73
AwayWLLLW1.21
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%19%33%
AVG goals3.383.623.12
Over 1.5 %92%92%92%
Over 2.5 %72%77%67%
Over 3.5 %44%50%38%
Scored1.421.311.54
Conceded1.962.311.58
BTTS56%50%62%
Clean Sheet14%8%21%
Corners---
Cards---
Rīgas FS II
Rīgas FS II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLDL1.94
HomeWWWLW2.32
AwayDDLDL1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%76%40%
AVG goals3.103.522.68
Over 1.5 %86%92%80%
Over 2.5 %64%68%60%
Over 3.5 %36%52%20%
Scored2.122.681.56
Conceded0.980.841.12
BTTS50%48%52%
Clean Sheet40%44%36%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS618
100%
3.0
224+18
4.3
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.70.7
-
2Metta / LUMetta / LU616
83%
2.7
353+32
6.3
100%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0005.80.5
-
3Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK515
100%
3.0
115+6
3.2
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
4JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts614
67%
2.3
124+8
2.7
100%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.7
-
5Riga MarinersRiga Mariners513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
6SkansteSkanste610
50%
1.7
1711+6
4.7
100%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.8
-
7MārupeMārupe76
29%
0.9
717-10
3.4
86%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.4
-
8SmilteneSmiltene66
33%
1.0
920-11
4.8
83%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.53.3
-
9Super Nova 2Super Nova 275
14%
0.7
711-4
2.6
100%
57%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
10Riga FC IIRiga FC II65
17%
0.8
612-6
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
11Tukums IITukums II54
20%
0.8
720-13
5.4
100%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.44.0
-
12Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II63
17%
0.5
925-16
5.7
100%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.54.2
-
13JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils52
0%
0.4
49-5
2.6
100%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA60
0%
0.0
418-14
3.7
83%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.0
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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