PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Smorgon vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 Result & Analysis

Date: 17/07/2022
Time: 14:00
Final 3-1
Smorgon
Smorgon
Vs
67%
20%
13%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Smorgon win✓ Hit
67.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 win✗ Miss
13.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

SmorgonSmorgon

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W14L30W04L20W02L10W11D31W32WH·SLO10/04A·LOK15/04H·BAR22/04A·SHA01/05H·LID07/05A·NAF14/05H·OSI21/05A·ORS05/06H·ML 03/07A·OST09/07
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.402.200.201.002.60
vs Stronger (2)2.002.503.001.001.004.00
vs Similar (5)1.601.602.500.001.002.67
vs Weaker (3)1.330.331.500.001.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Molodechno-DYuSSh 4) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L21W22D00D33D03L11D35L14L21WA·OST09/04H·VOL23/04A·SLO30/04H·LOK08/05A·BAR15/05H·SHA22/05A·LID05/06H·NAF11/06A·OSI03/07H·ORS10/07
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.402.301.402.001.402.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)1.292.291.252.251.332.33
vs Weaker (3)1.672.332.001.001.503.00
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%4%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.1%
Under 1.5
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.3%
Under 2.5
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.3%
Under 3.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.0%
No
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.7%
1-1
9.1%
3-0
7.8%
1-0
7.7%
3-1 ✓
7.6%
2-2
4.7%
4-0
4.6%
Smorgon goals ↓
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 goals →
01234
04.5%2.7%1.7%0.6%0.1%
17.7%9.1%4.0%1.3%0.3%
210.0%9.7%4.7%1.5%0.4%
37.8%7.6%3.7%1.2%0.3%
44.6%4.4%2.2%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Smorgon goals (down), columns = Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Naftan
2.21
Smorgon
2.17
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.88
ML Vitebsk
1.71
Ostrovets FC
1.67
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.62
Volna
1.50
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.21
Orsha
1.12
Lida
1.08
Slonim
0.75
Osipovichy
0.54
Baranovichi
0.50
Smorgon is 0.96 points better than Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 in terms of average points per game (2.17 vs 1.21).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Shakhtyor Petrikov
2.88
Naftan
2.29
Smorgon
1.92
ML Vitebsk
1.88
Volna
1.83
Ostrovets FC
1.75
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.62
Lida
1.46
Orsha
1.38
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.25
Baranovichi
1.04
Slonim
1.00
Osipovichy
0.88
Smorgon is 0.67 goals better than Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 1.25).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Naftan
0.79
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.83
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.00
Smorgon
1.12
ML Vitebsk
1.42
Ostrovets FC
1.42
Volna
1.46
Lida
1.79
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.88
Orsha
2.17
Slonim
2.21
Osipovichy
2.21
Baranovichi
2.88
Smorgon is 0.75 goals better than Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.88).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SmorgonSmorgon

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W03L00D01L10W00D00D00D11D21WH·SLO10/04A·LOK15/04H·BAR22/04A·SHA01/05H·LID07/05A·NAF14/05H·OSI21/05A·ORS05/06H·ML 03/07A·OST09/07
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.600.600.200.401.00
vs Stronger (2)0.502.001.001.000.003.00
vs Similar (5)0.600.400.500.000.670.67
vs Weaker (3)0.330.000.500.000.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Molodechno-DYuSSh 4) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W10W00D20W00D01L01L02L10WA·OST09/04H·VOL23/04A·SLO30/04H·LOK08/05A·BAR15/05H·SHA22/05A·LID05/06H·NAF11/06A·OSI03/07H·ORS10/07
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.500.400.200.600.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.430.430.250.250.670.67
vs Weaker (3)0.670.671.000.000.501.00
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Smorgon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SmorgonSmorgon

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D30W03L10W02L10W11D20W11DH·SLO10/04A·LOK15/04H·BAR22/04A·SHA01/05H·LID07/05A·NAF14/05H·OSI21/05A·ORS05/06H·ML 03/07A·OST09/07
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.801.600.000.601.60
vs Stronger (2)1.500.502.000.001.001.00
vs Similar (5)1.001.202.000.000.332.00
vs Weaker (3)1.000.331.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Molodechno-DYuSSh 4) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L11D12L00D13L03L10W34L12L11DA·OST09/04H·VOL23/04A·SLO30/04H·LOK08/05A·BAR15/05H·SHA22/05A·LID05/06H·NAF11/06A·OSI03/07H·ORS10/07
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.801.001.800.801.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.861.861.002.000.671.67
vs Weaker (3)1.001.671.001.001.002.00
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Smorgon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
BAR (21)
€2m
NAF (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
Smorgon and Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
BAR (8)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
Smorgon and Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
NAF (9)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
Smorgon and Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
BAR (9)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
Smorgon and Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
SMO wins
0
Draws
0
M4 wins

Head-to-head

Smorgon vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 · H/A from SMO
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

SmorgonSmorgon

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/07/22AOstrovets FC Vs SMO2-3
03/07/22HSMO Vs ML Vitebsk3-1
05/06/22AOrsha Vs SMO1-1
21/05/22HSMO Vs Osipovichy1-0
14/05/22ANaftan Vs SMO2-0
07/05/22HSMO Vs Lida2-0
01/05/22AShakhtyor Petrikov Vs SMO4-0
22/04/22HSMO Vs Baranovichi3-0
15/04/22ALokomotiv Gomel Vs SMO4-1
10/04/22HSMO Vs Slonim2-0

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/07/22HM4 Vs Orsha2-1
03/07/22AOsipovichy Vs M44-1
11/06/22HM4 Vs Naftan3-5
05/06/22ALida Vs M41-1
22/05/22HM4 Vs Shakhtyor Petrikov0-3
15/05/22ABaranovichi Vs M43-3
08/05/22HM4 Vs Lokomotiv Gomel0-0
30/04/22ASlonim Vs M42-2
23/04/22HM4 Vs Volna2-1
09/04/22AOstrovets FC Vs M43-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Smorgon
Smorgon
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWW1.90
HomeWWWWW3.00
AwayLLLDW0.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%100%20%
AVG goals3.002.403.60
Over 1.5 %90%80%100%
Over 2.5 %50%40%60%
Over 3.5 %40%20%60%
Scored1.602.201.00
Conceded1.400.202.60
BTTS40%20%60%
Clean Sheet40%80%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLW1.00
HomeWDLLW1.40
AwayLDDDL0.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%40%0%
AVG goals3.703.404.00
Over 1.5 %90%80%100%
Over 2.5 %80%80%80%
Over 3.5 %40%20%60%
Scored1.401.401.40
Conceded2.302.002.60
BTTS70%60%80%
Clean Sheet10%20%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1NaftanNaftan2453
67%
2.2
5519+36
3.1
79%
62%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.30.8
-
2SmorgonSmorgon2452
67%
2.2
4627+19
3.0
83%
58%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.91.1
-
3Shakhtyor PetrikovShakhtyor Petrikov2445
54%
1.9
6920+49
3.7
79%
71%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.90.8
-
4ML VitebskML Vitebsk2441
50%
1.7
4534+11
3.3
71%
67%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
6351.91.4
-
5Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC2440
46%
1.7
4234+8
3.2
83%
67%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.81.4
-
6Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel2439
42%
1.6
3924+15
2.6
71%
54%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
7VolnaVolna2436
42%
1.5
4435+9
3.3
88%
62%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.81.5
-
8Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 42429
29%
1.2
3045-15
3.1
88%
62%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.9
-
9OrshaOrsha2427
29%
1.1
3352-19
3.5
83%
71%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.42.2
-
10LidaLida2426
25%
1.1
3543-8
3.2
83%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.51.8
-
11SlonimSlonim2418
21%
0.8
2453-29
3.2
83%
58%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.2
-
12OsipovichyOsipovichy2413
12%
0.5
2153-32
3.1
79%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.2
-
13BaranovichiBaranovichi2412
12%
0.5
2569-44
3.9
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.02.9
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

← all matches