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Smorgon vs Ostrovets FC Result & Analysis

Date: 29/10/2022
Time: 10:00
Final 1-1
Smorgon
Smorgon
Vs
47%
29%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ostrovets FC
Ostrovets FC
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Smorgon win✗ Miss
46.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC win✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

SmorgonSmorgon

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W31W21W42W10W31W00D40W32W13LA·VOL23/07A·SLO13/08H·LOK21/08A·BAR26/08H·SHA04/09A·LID10/09H·NAF17/09A·OSI01/10H·ORS08/10A·ML 22/10
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.051.242.000.502.091.91
vs Stronger (4)1.752.252.501.001.003.50
vs Similar (11)2.001.181.800.202.172.00
vs Weaker (6)2.330.672.000.672.670.67
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D32W30W12L10W04L00D11D10W20WA·MOL14/08H·VOL21/08A·SLO27/08H·LOK03/09A·BAR10/09H·SHA17/09A·LID01/10H·NAF08/10A·OSI15/10H·ORS22/10
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.861.272.181.181.551.36
vs Stronger (3)2.002.331.002.002.502.50
vs Similar (15)1.671.332.121.251.141.43
vs Weaker (4)2.500.253.000.502.000.00
Clean sheet %45% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%018%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.8%
Under 1.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.7%
Under 2.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.5%
Under 3.5
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.8%
No
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.7%
1-0
11.2%
0-0
9.8%
2-0
9.2%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
7.2%
1-2
6.2%
2-2
4.6%
Smorgon goals ↓
Ostrovets FC goals →
01234
09.8%7.2%4.2%1.4%0.3%
111%14%6.2%2.1%0.5%
29.2%9.1%4.6%1.5%0.4%
34.5%4.5%2.2%0.7%0.2%
41.6%1.6%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Smorgon goals (down), columns = Ostrovets FC goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Naftan
2.21
Smorgon
2.17
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.88
ML Vitebsk
1.71
Ostrovets FC
1.67
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.62
Volna
1.50
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.21
Orsha
1.12
Lida
1.08
Slonim
0.75
Osipovichy
0.54
Baranovichi
0.50
Smorgon is 0.50 points better than Ostrovets FC in terms of average points per game (2.17 vs 1.67).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Shakhtyor Petrikov
2.88
Naftan
2.29
Smorgon
1.92
ML Vitebsk
1.88
Volna
1.83
Ostrovets FC
1.75
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.62
Lida
1.46
Orsha
1.38
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.25
Baranovichi
1.04
Slonim
1.00
Osipovichy
0.88
Smorgon is 0.17 goals better than Ostrovets FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 1.75).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Naftan
0.79
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.83
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.00
Smorgon
1.12
ML Vitebsk
1.42
Ostrovets FC
1.42
Volna
1.46
Lida
1.79
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.88
Orsha
2.17
Slonim
2.21
Osipovichy
2.21
Baranovichi
2.88
Smorgon is 0.29 goals better than Ostrovets FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.42).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SmorgonSmorgon

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W11D21W30W10W10W00D20W02L02LA·VOL23/07A·SLO13/08H·LOK21/08A·BAR26/08H·SHA04/09A·LID10/09H·NAF17/09A·OSI01/10H·ORS08/10A·ML 22/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.860.620.700.401.000.82
vs Stronger (4)0.751.751.501.000.002.50
vs Similar (11)1.000.270.600.001.330.50
vs Weaker (6)0.670.500.330.671.000.33
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D12L10W11D10W03L00D00D10W10WA·MOL14/08H·VOL21/08A·SLO27/08H·LOK03/09A·BAR10/09H·SHA17/09A·LID01/10H·NAF08/10A·OSI15/10H·ORS22/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.640.680.910.730.360.64
vs Stronger (3)0.671.671.001.000.502.00
vs Similar (15)0.530.670.880.880.140.43
vs Weaker (4)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %64% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Smorgon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SmorgonSmorgon

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W20W00D12L00D21W00D20W30W11DA·VOL23/07A·SLO13/08H·LOK21/08A·BAR26/08H·SHA04/09A·LID10/09H·NAF17/09A·OSI01/10H·ORS08/10A·ML 22/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.190.621.300.101.091.09
vs Stronger (4)1.000.501.000.001.001.00
vs Similar (11)1.000.911.200.200.831.50
vs Weaker (6)1.670.171.670.001.670.33
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W20W01L00D01L00D11D00D10WA·MOL14/08H·VOL21/08A·SLO27/08H·LOK03/09A·BAR10/09H·SHA17/09A·LID01/10H·NAF08/10A·OSI15/10H·ORS22/10
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.591.270.451.180.73
vs Stronger (3)1.330.670.001.002.000.50
vs Similar (15)1.130.671.250.381.001.00
vs Weaker (4)1.500.252.000.501.000.00
Clean sheet %59% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Smorgon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Smorgon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smorgon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.576.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.571.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
BAR (21)
€2m
NAF (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
Smorgon and Ostrovets FC have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
BAR (8)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
Smorgon and Ostrovets FC have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
NAF (9)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
Smorgon and Ostrovets FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
BAR (9)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
Smorgon and Ostrovets FC have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
SMO wins
0
Draws
0
OF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Smorgon vs Ostrovets FC · H/A from SMO
DateH/AGameScore
09/07/22AOstrovets FC Vs SMO2-3

SmorgonSmorgon

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/10/22AML Vitebsk Vs SMO3-1
08/10/22HSMO Vs Orsha3-2
01/10/22AOsipovichy Vs SMO0-4
17/09/22HSMO Vs Naftan0-0
10/09/22ALida Vs SMO1-3
04/09/22HSMO Vs Shakhtyor Petrikov1-0
26/08/22ABaranovichi Vs SMO2-4
21/08/22HSMO Vs Lokomotiv Gomel2-1
13/08/22ASlonim Vs SMO1-3
23/07/22AVolna Vs SMO1-3

Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/10/22HOF Vs Orsha2-0
15/10/22AOsipovichy Vs OF0-1
08/10/22HOF Vs Naftan1-1
01/10/22ALida Vs OF0-0
17/09/22HOF Vs Shakhtyor Petrikov0-4
10/09/22ABaranovichi Vs OF0-1
03/09/22HOF Vs Lokomotiv Gomel1-2
27/08/22ASlonim Vs OF0-3
21/08/22HOF Vs Volna3-2
14/08/22AMolodechno-DYuSSh 4 Vs OF0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Smorgon
Smorgon
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWL2.24
HomeWWWDW2.80
AwayWWWWL1.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %71%90%55%
AVG goals3.292.504.00
Over 1.5 %86%70%100%
Over 2.5 %67%50%82%
Over 3.5 %57%30%82%
Scored2.052.002.09
Conceded1.240.501.91
BTTS57%40%73%
Clean Sheet33%60%9%
Corners---
Cards---
Ostrovets FC
Ostrovets FC
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDWW1.77
HomeWLLDW2.00
AwayDWWDW1.55
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%64%36%
AVG goals3.143.362.91
Over 1.5 %82%100%64%
Over 2.5 %68%73%64%
Over 3.5 %45%45%45%
Scored1.862.181.55
Conceded1.271.181.36
BTTS45%45%45%
Clean Sheet45%45%45%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1NaftanNaftan2453
67%
2.2
5519+36
3.1
79%
62%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.30.8
-
2SmorgonSmorgon2452
67%
2.2
4627+19
3.0
83%
58%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.91.1
-
3Shakhtyor PetrikovShakhtyor Petrikov2445
54%
1.9
6920+49
3.7
79%
71%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.90.8
-
4ML VitebskML Vitebsk2441
50%
1.7
4534+11
3.3
71%
67%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
6351.91.4
-
5Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC2440
46%
1.7
4234+8
3.2
83%
67%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.81.4
-
6Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel2439
42%
1.6
3924+15
2.6
71%
54%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
7VolnaVolna2436
42%
1.5
4435+9
3.3
88%
62%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.81.5
-
8Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 42429
29%
1.2
3045-15
3.1
88%
62%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.9
-
9OrshaOrsha2427
29%
1.1
3352-19
3.5
83%
71%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.42.2
-
10LidaLida2426
25%
1.1
3543-8
3.2
83%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.51.8
-
11SlonimSlonim2418
21%
0.8
2453-29
3.2
83%
58%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.2
-
12OsipovichyOsipovichy2413
12%
0.5
2153-32
3.1
79%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.2
-
13BaranovichiBaranovichi2412
12%
0.5
2569-44
3.9
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.02.9
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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