This match is expected to be a closely contested and high-scoring affair, with the away side, Bryne, likely to emerge victorious. The model predicts an away win in this match, and the away side has a 48% chance of winning, compared to Sogndal's 26% chance of winning and a 25% chance of a draw. The expected total goals is 3.1, suggesting a high-scoring match. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, although the model suggests this outcome with a relatively low probability of 11.7%.
In terms of recent form, both Sogndal and Bryne are coming off defeats, with Sogndal losing 2-3 to Lyn and Bryne losing 0-2 to Stromsgodset. At home, Sogndal has scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 1.57 goals per match, while Bryne has scored 1.12 goals and conceded 1.25 goals per match when playing away against similar opponents.
The model's selection is an Over 1.5 goal total, which has an 82.2% chance of occurring. Additionally, the model suggests a 1-1 draw, which has a 23% chance of occurring. The home side, Sogndal, has a 26% chance of winning, a 25% chance of drawing, and a 48% chance of losing.
Results analysis
Sogndal's win extends their run of mixed results, having suffered two consecutive defeats before this match. However, the away team's form was on the upswing after a recent win over Sogndal. The away win was the correct call for the Pythia prediction model, which had assigned a 48% probability of success to this outcome. The model's selection of the away win proved correct, as the actual result was indeed an away win. The model's selection of over 1.5 goals also hit, with an 82% probability assigned to this outcome. The final score was 0-2, which aligns with the most likely score of 0-2 predicted by the model, albeit with a relatively low probability of 7.4%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sogndal win✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied 37.3% · @ 2.46
Edge
-11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.59
Superbet
2.52
BetVictor
2.50
Dafabet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Draw✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.70
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.90
Betfair
3.90
Pinnacle
3.88
1xBet
3.78
Marathonbet
3.78
Bryne win✓ Hit
48.4%
Avg Implied 37.9% · @ 2.42
Edge
+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Dafabet
2.47
Betano
2.47
Superbet
2.45
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sogndal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.63
1.47
1.60
1.73
1.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.33
1.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
1.74
1.56
1.50
1.36
2.00
1.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Bryne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bryne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.77
1.12
1.69
1.14
1.86
vs Stronger (10)
1.00
2.70
1.33
2.00
0.50
3.75
vs Similar (20)
1.20
1.30
1.00
1.50
1.40
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sogndal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.2%
@ 1.10-2.3%
Under 1.5
17.8%
@ 5.97+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Pinnacle
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Under
Pinnacle
6.55
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
888Sport
6.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.3%
@ 1.38-7.9%
Under 2.5
40.7%
@ 2.81+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Unibet
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Under
Betfair
3.20
BetVictor
2.90
Pinnacle
2.89
10Bet
2.85
888Sport
2.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.9%
@ 1.96-10.9%
Under 3.5
63.1%
@ 1.79+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.01
Bet365
2.00
Betano
2.00
Unibet
1.98
SBO
1.96
Under
Betfair
1.90
SBO
1.86
Pinnacle
1.82
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.2%
@ 1.35-7.4%
No
38.8%
@ 2.94+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.37
Unibet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
888Sport
1.36
William Hil
1.36
No
Betfair
3.10
BetVictor
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
3.00
1xBet
2.99
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%@ 7.70+5.9%
1-2
9.5%@ 9.04+4.6%
0-2 ✓
7.4%@ 15.51+4.6%
0-1
7.2%@ 13.62+4.0%
2-1
6.8%@ 9.31+2.0%
2-2
6.1%@ 9.29+1.3%
0-0
5.7%@ 18.68+3.3%
1-3
5.7%@ 14.59+2.6%
Sogndal goals ↓
Bryne goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
7.2%
7.4%
4.4%
2.0%
1
4.9%
12%
9.5%
5.7%
2.5%
2
3.8%
6.8%
6.1%
3.6%
1.6%
3
1.6%
2.9%
2.6%
1.6%
0.7%
4
0.5%
0.9%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sogndal goals (down), columns = Bryne goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Raufoss
0.50
Ranheim
0.50
Moss
0.29
Sogndal is 0.69 points worse than Bryne in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Sogndal is 0.69 goals better than Bryne in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Sogndal is 1.00 goals worse than Bryne in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sogndal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.67
0.73
0.33
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.74
0.63
0.71
0.29
0.77
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Bryne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bryne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.80
0.38
0.81
0.36
0.79
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.70
0.20
0.70
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Sogndal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sogndal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bryne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bryne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bryne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sogndal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.97
0.73
1.27
1.07
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
4.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
1.00
0.93
0.79
1.07
1.23
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Bryne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bryne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.97
0.75
0.88
0.79
1.07
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.70
0.67
1.00
0.50
2.75
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.60
0.80
0.80
0.90
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sogndal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sogndal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bryne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bryne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bryne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
82.2%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Pinnacle
1.11
888Sport
1.10
-2.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Bryne · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Magnus Grødem38%
Duarte Moreira25%
Sanel Bojadžić23%
Heine Asen Larsen14%
Axel Kryger12%
Alfred Scriven10%
Lasse Qvigstad9%
Nicklas Strunck7%
Mats Selmer Thornes7%
Kristian Skurve Haland6%
Jacob Haahr3%
Eirik Franke Saunes3%
Jon-Helge Tveita0%
Rasmus Thellufsen0%
Jan de Boer0%
Andreas Skovgaard0%
Dadi Dodou Gaye0%
Christian Landu-Landu0%
Robert Undheim0%
Sondre Norheim0%
Jens Berland Husebø0%
Luis Görlich0%
Lars Erik Sødal0%
Jesper Gregersen0%
Sjur Torgersen Jonassen0%
Patrick Wik0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luis Görlich38%
Andreas Skovgaard27%
Lars Erik Sødal26%
Magnus Grødem25%
Axel Kryger24%
Alfred Scriven23%
Heine Asen Larsen18%
Nicklas Strunck18%
Sanel Bojadžić15%
Patrick Wik14%
Jacob Haahr10%
Jens Berland Husebø10%
Duarte Moreira9%
Jesper Gregersen9%
Mats Selmer Thornes7%
Kristian Skurve Haland6%
Jon-Helge Tveita6%
Christian Landu-Landu5%
Lasse Qvigstad4%
Eirik Franke Saunes3%
Jan de Boer3%
Rasmus Thellufsen0%
Dadi Dodou Gaye0%
Robert Undheim0%
Sondre Norheim0%
Sjur Torgersen Jonassen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Duarte Moreira22%
Alfred Scriven13%
Kristian Skurve Haland12%
Eirik Franke Saunes10%
Andreas Skovgaard9%
Sanel Bojadžić8%
Jon-Helge Tveita6%
Heine Asen Larsen5%
Nicklas Strunck4%
Jacob Haahr0%
Rasmus Thellufsen0%
Jan de Boer0%
Magnus Grødem0%
Dadi Dodou Gaye0%
Axel Kryger0%
Christian Landu-Landu0%
Robert Undheim0%
Sondre Norheim0%
Jens Berland Husebø0%
Luis Görlich0%
Mats Selmer Thornes0%
Lars Erik Sødal0%
Lasse Qvigstad0%
Jesper Gregersen0%
Sjur Torgersen Jonassen0%
Patrick Wik0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Duarte Moreira22%
Heine Asen Larsen18%
Magnus Grødem12%
Sanel Bojadžić12%
Alfred Scriven10%
Eirik Franke Saunes7%
Jacob Haahr0%
Jon-Helge Tveita0%
Rasmus Thellufsen0%
Nicklas Strunck0%
Jan de Boer0%
Andreas Skovgaard0%
Dadi Dodou Gaye0%
Axel Kryger0%
Christian Landu-Landu0%
Robert Undheim0%
Sondre Norheim0%
Jens Berland Husebø0%
Luis Görlich0%
Mats Selmer Thornes0%
Lars Erik Sødal0%
Lasse Qvigstad0%
Jesper Gregersen0%
Sjur Torgersen Jonassen0%
Kristian Skurve Haland0%
Patrick Wik0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Sogndal's squad is €1m less valuable than Bryne's (€4m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Sogndal's attack is €1m less valuable than Bryne's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Sogndal and Bryne have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Sogndal and Bryne have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stabaek
Haugesund
hodd
Kongsvinger
Stromsgodset
Lyn
Egersund
Strommen
ODD Ballklubb
Asane
Sandnes ULF
Ranheim
Raufoss
Moss