PythiaFootballBETA
Sogndal hosts Ranheim in a Norway: 1. Division match. The recent form of both teams suggests an open contest, with Sogndal struggling after two straight defeats and Ranheim coming off a defeat themselves. The model predicts a high-scoring match, expecting 3.2 goals on average, with a most likely total of 3 goals.
The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.6%. Sogndal's home form has seen them score an average of 1.64 goals and concede 1.45 per match against similar opponents. Ranheim's away form has yielded 1.7 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the away win, with a 40% chance of occurring. The home win percentage is 34%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 40%. The model's suggested picks include Over 1.5, which has an 83.4% chance of being hit.
In a major upset, Sogndal stunned Ranheim 3-2 at home, extending their winning streak. The win was a surprise, as the pre-match favourite, Ranheim, was expected to win with a 40% probability. However, the model's selection, an Away win, was incorrect, as it only had a 40% probability. The model's call was wrong. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 83.4% probability, but this was expected, as the expected total goals was 3.2. The actual result was a Home win, which was not predicted by the model.
Sogndal| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.63 | 1.60 | 1.47 | 1.67 | 1.80 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 1.17 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.67 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.68 | 1.55 | 1.64 | 1.45 | 1.73 | 1.64 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 2.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Ranheim| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 1.60 | 1.71 | 1.50 | 1.62 | 1.69 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 1.43 | 2.57 | 0.67 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 2.25 |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.58 | 1.26 | 1.44 | 0.89 | 1.70 | 1.60 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 2.50 | 1.50 | 4.50 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Ranheim goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 5.4% | 12% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 2.0% |
| 2 | 4.9% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| 3 | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 83.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/25 | H | 0-3 | |
| 21/04/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 25/08/24 | H | 0-2 | |
| 20/07/24 | A | 3-0 | |
| 02/09/23 | H | 1-2 | |
| 21/05/23 | A | 2-0 | |
| 17/09/22 | H | 2-0 | |
| 17/07/22 | A | 3-3 |
Sogndal| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/25 | H | 0-3 | |
| 01/11/25 | A | 1-4 | |
| 25/10/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 22/10/25 | A | 1-3 | |
| 18/10/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 04/10/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 28/09/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 21/09/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 13/09/25 | H | 1-5 | |
| 30/08/25 | A | 1-1 |
Ranheim| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/25 | A | 3-2 | |
| 08/11/25 | A | 0-3 | |
| 01/11/25 | H | 4-2 | |
| 25/10/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/10/25 | H | 3-0 | |
| 18/10/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/10/25 | H | 0-4 | |
| 29/09/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 20/09/25 | A | 2-3 | |
| 13/09/25 | H | 5-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Egersund | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 3.2 | 100% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | - |
| 2 |  Bryne | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 2.4 | 100% | 40% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 |  Stabaek | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 5.0 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 4 |  Haugesund | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 5.8 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 |  hodd | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 5.8 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 3.2 | - |
| 6 |  Lyn | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 5.0 | 100% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 7 |  Stromsgodset | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 8 |  Kongsvinger | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 4.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 9 |  ODD Ballklubb | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.4 | - |
| 10 |  Strommen | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | - |
| 11 | Ranheim | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.8 | - |
| 12 | Sogndal | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4.0 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.3 | - |
| 13 |  Raufoss | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 4.7 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 3.3 | - |
| 14 |  Asane | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 3.0 | - |
| 15 |  Moss | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3.6 | 100% | 100% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.4 | - |
| 16 |  Sandnes ULF | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 4.5 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 3.2 | - |