Sogndal’s recent dip, ending with a loss to Stromsgodset, sets up a high-scoring clash as the model projects an average of 3.7 goals. The most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 9% chance. Home advantage is clear: a 52% chance of a Sogndal win, 22% for a draw, and 26% for Raufoss. Sogndal averages 1.36 goals scored and 1.5 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Raufoss, on the road, averages 2.0 scored and 2.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (96.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.1%), Under 6.5 (91.7%), Over 1.5 (89.3%), Home over 0.5 goals (88.7%), Home +2 handicap (87.7%), Under 5.5 (82.9%), and Home under 3.5 goals (82.3%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability, reflecting the anticipated offensive output and defensive frailties of both sides.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sogndal win
51.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Raufoss win
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sogndal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.70
1.33
1.73
1.80
1.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.33
1.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
1.70
1.63
1.36
1.50
2.08
1.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raufoss
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
2.23
1.07
1.71
1.56
2.69
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
2.33
0.67
1.67
0.83
3.00
vs Similar (18)
1.72
2.17
1.38
1.75
2.00
2.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sogndal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.3%
Under 1.5
10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
71.6%
Under 2.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
50.8%
Under 3.5
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
70.3%
No
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.0%
2-1
8.9%
2-2
6.8%
3-1
6.5%
1-2
6.3%
2-0
5.8%
3-2
4.9%
1-0
4.5%
Sogndal goals ↓
Raufoss goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.3%
2.9%
2.9%
1.5%
0.6%
1
4.5%
9.0%
6.3%
3.2%
1.2%
2
5.8%
8.9%
6.8%
3.5%
1.3%
3
4.2%
6.5%
4.9%
2.5%
1.0%
4
2.3%
3.5%
2.7%
1.4%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sogndal goals (down), columns = Raufoss goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Raufoss
0.50
Ranheim
0.50
Moss
0.29
Sogndal is 0.67 points better than Raufoss in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Sogndal is 0.83 goals better than Raufoss in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Sogndal is 1.00 goals better than Raufoss in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 3.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sogndal or Draw
73.9%
Avg Implied -
52%
22%
26%
covers Sogndal + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sogndal or Raufoss
77.8%
Avg Implied -
52%
22%
26%
covers Sogndal + Raufoss
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Raufoss
48.3%
Avg Implied -
52%
22%
26%
covers Draw + Raufoss
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sogndal over/under 0.5
Over
88.7%
Under
11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 1.5
Over
64.0%
Under
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 2.5
Over
37.2%
Under
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 3.5
Over
17.6%
Under
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 0.5
Over
78.3%
Under
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5
Over
45.2%
Under
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5
Over
19.9%
Under
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 3.5
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sogndal, so a minus line means Sogndal give that many goals of a start and Raufoss receive them. At -1, Sogndal must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sogndal win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sogndal)
Sogndal -2
16.0%
Draw -2
15.7%
Raufoss +2
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sogndal)
Sogndal -1
31.7%
Draw -1
20.0%
Raufoss +1
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sogndal)
Sogndal +1
73.9%
Draw +1
13.8%
Raufoss -1
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sogndal)
Sogndal +2
87.7%
Draw +2
7.7%
Raufoss -2
4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sogndal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.80
0.40
0.73
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.81
0.67
0.79
0.36
0.85
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raufoss
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.97
0.57
0.79
0.81
1.12
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.89
1.17
0.75
0.88
1.00
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Sogndal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sogndal over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sogndal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.00
0.53
1.33
1.07
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
4.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.89
0.96
0.57
1.14
1.23
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raufoss
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.27
0.50
0.93
0.75
1.56
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.67
0.33
1.00
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (18)
0.83
1.00
0.62
0.88
1.00
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sogndal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sogndal over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Sogndal's squad is €2m more valuable than Raufoss's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Sogndal and Raufoss have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Sogndal and Raufoss have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Sogndal's defence is €1m more valuable than Raufoss's (€2m vs €1m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stabaek
Haugesund
hodd
Kongsvinger
Stromsgodset
Bryne
Lyn
Egersund
Strommen
ODD Ballklubb
Asane
Sandnes ULF
Ranheim
Moss