Sogndal are expected to edge out Sandnes ULF in this Norway: 1. Division match. Recent form suggests a storyline of two teams struggling, with Sogndal looking to bounce back from two consecutive defeats and Sandnes ULF reeling from three straight losses. The model predicts a home win, with a 49% chance of Sogndal triumphing, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 25% chance of Sandnes ULF securing an away win.
On average, 2.9 goals are expected to be scored in this match, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.4%. Sogndal have a strong home record, scoring 1.0 goal on average and conceding 1.0, while Sandnes ULF struggle when away, scoring 0.4 goals and conceding 3.1 when facing stronger opponents.
The model suggests Over 1.5 goals as its selection, with a probability of 79.0%. Sogndal's home win is the model's selection, with a 49% chance, while the draw percentage stands at 26% and the away win percentage at 25%.
Results analysis
Sogndal's win extends their run, coming off a win against the same opponent Sandnes ULF, who are after 4 straight defeats. The final score was 2-0, confirming the actual result of a home win. The model correctly picked the home win, as the pre-match favourite, with a 49% probability of success. The model's selection of a home win was correct. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals also hit, with a probability of 79%.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sogndal win✓ Hit
49.1%
Avg Implied 46.4% · @ 1.98
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.05
Dafabet
2.04
SBO
2.04
Bet365
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Draw✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied 24.1% · @ 3.81
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.03
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
4.00
Bet365
3.90
Dafabet
3.90
Sandnes ULF win✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied 29.5% · @ 3.11
Edge
-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.39
Marathonbet
3.28
1xBet
3.28
Betano
3.25
Unibet
3.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sogndal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.70
1.40
1.73
1.73
1.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.33
1.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
1.70
1.63
1.43
1.50
2.00
1.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sandnes ULF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sandnes ULF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
2.53
0.93
2.71
0.88
2.38
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
3.08
0.43
3.00
0.17
3.17
vs Similar (16)
1.31
2.19
1.43
2.43
1.22
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Sogndal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.0%
@ 1.09-6.4%
Under 1.5
21.0%
@ 6.39+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Pinnacle
1.10
Bet365
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Under
Betfair
7.50
Pinnacle
7.10
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
888Sport
6.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.5%
@ 1.35-14.1%
Under 2.5
45.5%
@ 2.95+14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.41
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.13
Bet365
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
10Bet
2.95
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.1%
@ 1.91-16.8%
Under 3.5
67.9%
@ 1.83+16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.02
SBO
1.99
Betano
1.95
10Bet
1.93
Pinnacle
1.92
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathonbet
1.87
Betfair
1.87
1xBet
1.87
SBO
1.83
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.2%
@ 1.34-11.7%
No
42.8%
@ 2.96+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.37
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
888Sport
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
No
BetVictor
3.10
Betfair
3.10
1xBet
3.02
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%@ 7.94+6.8%
2-1
9.6%@ 8.34+4.3%
1-0
8.6%@ 12.70+5.1%
2-0 ✓
8.3%@ 12.84+4.8%
0-0
6.9%@ 19.60+4.6%
1-2
6.5%@ 10.71+2.4%
2-2
5.6%@ 9.54+0.9%
0-1
5.5%@ 16.38+2.8%
Sogndal goals ↓
Sandnes ULF goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
5.5%
3.8%
1.5%
0.4%
1
8.6%
12%
6.5%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.6%
5.6%
2.1%
0.6%
3
4.7%
5.5%
3.2%
1.2%
0.4%
4
2.0%
2.3%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sogndal goals (down), columns = Sandnes ULF goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Raufoss
0.50
Ranheim
0.50
Moss
0.29
Sogndal is 0.60 points better than Sandnes ULF in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 0.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Sogndal is 0.69 goals better than Sandnes ULF in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Sogndal is 0.29 goals better than Sandnes ULF in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 2.29).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sogndal or Draw✓ Hit
75.3%
Avg Implied -
49%
26%
25%
covers Sogndal + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sogndal or Sandnes ULF✓ Hit
73.8%
Avg Implied -
49%
26%
25%
covers Sogndal + Sandnes ULF
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sandnes ULF✗ Miss
50.9%
Avg Implied -
49%
26%
25%
covers Draw + Sandnes ULF
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sogndal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.73
0.40
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.74
0.67
0.71
0.36
0.77
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Sandnes ULF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sandnes ULF
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.93
0.36
0.79
0.31
1.06
vs Stronger (13)
0.08
1.15
0.14
1.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.75
0.57
0.57
0.56
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sogndal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sogndal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sogndal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.00
0.67
1.33
1.07
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
4.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.96
0.96
0.71
1.14
1.23
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sandnes ULF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sandnes ULF
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.60
0.57
1.93
0.56
1.31
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
1.92
0.29
2.00
0.17
1.83
vs Similar (16)
0.75
1.44
0.86
1.86
0.67
1.11
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sogndal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sogndal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.0%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Pinnacle
1.10
Bet365
1.10
888Sport
1.10
-6.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Sogndal's squad is €2m more valuable than Sandnes ULF's (€4m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Sogndal and Sandnes ULF have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Sogndal and Sandnes ULF have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Sogndal's defence is €1m more valuable than Sandnes ULF's (€2m vs €1m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →