Sogndal’s recent draw against Moss leaves them still struggling to find a rhythm, while Stromsgodset’s three-game winning streak fuels confidence on the road. The model favours an away win, with a 51% chance, a draw at 23%, and a home win at 26%. The average number of goals expected is 3.5, and the most likely total is three, with a 22% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.9% chance. In terms of form, Sogndal averages 1.36 goals scored and 1.29 conceded against similar opponents at home, whereas Stromsgodset averages 1.75 scored and 2.12 conceded on the road. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.8% (edge 7%), Under 7.5 at 97.3% (edge 6%), Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.1% (edge 10%), Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.7% (edge 7%), Away under 2.5 2H goals at 94.4% (edge 14%), Home under 3.5 goals at 94.2% (edge 6%), Under 6.5 at 93.5% (edge 7%), and Away +2 handicap at 88.2% (edge 1%).
Results analysis
The match saw Stromsgodset extend their four-game winning streak, while Sogndal finished coming off a defeat. The Pythia model correctly called an away win, matching the 2-3 final score. The model’s favourite, away win, had a 51% probability and was right. Every suggested pick landed: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.6%, Under 7.5 at 97.3%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.5%, Home under 3.5 goals at 94.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 94.1%, Under 6.5 at 93.5%, and Away +2 handicap at 88.2%. The model’s selections proved accurate across the board.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sogndal win✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied 19.4% · @ 4.74
Edge
+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Pinnacle
4.97
1xBet
4.96
Marathonbet
4.95
Draw✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied 19.3% · @ 4.78
Edge
+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.20
BetVictor
5.00
Dafabet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
4.95
Stromsgodset win✓ Hit
51.2%
Avg Implied 61.3% · @ 1.50
Edge
-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.68
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
BetVictor
1.50
Dafabet
1.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sogndal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.60
1.33
1.53
1.80
1.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.33
1.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
1.70
1.52
1.36
1.29
2.08
1.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Stromsgodset) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stromsgodset
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
2.23
1.20
2.13
1.60
2.33
vs Stronger (12)
0.92
2.75
1.17
2.50
0.67
3.00
vs Similar (17)
1.47
2.00
1.22
1.89
1.75
2.12
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
-
-
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Sogndal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.3%
@ 1.04-1.7%
Under 1.5
12.7%
@ 8.39+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.03
Under
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
1xBet
8.40
Marathonbet
8.40
Superbet
8.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.9%
@ 1.22-8.0%
Under 2.5
32.1%
@ 3.83+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Superbet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.99
BetVictor
3.90
Superbet
3.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.3%
@ 1.60-11.9%
Under 3.5
53.7%
@ 2.23+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.65
Marathonbet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Under
Betfair
2.38
Pinnacle
2.27
Bet365
2.25
1xBet
2.24
Marathonbet
2.24
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.4%
@ 1.30-3.6%
No
32.6%
@ 3.19+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
No
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Betfair
3.30
William Hil
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.9%@ 10.61+5.6%
1-2
9.2%@ 8.39+3.9%
2-2
6.6%@ 11.00+2.5%
0-2
6.4%@ 11.93+2.7%
2-1
6.4%@ 14.96+3.4%
1-3
6.4%@ 9.49+1.6%
0-1
5.3%@ 15.12+2.4%
2-3 ✓
4.6%@ 12.42+0.9%
Sogndal goals ↓
Stromsgodset goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
5.3%
6.4%
4.4%
2.3%
1
3.4%
9.9%
9.2%
6.4%
3.3%
2
3.1%
6.4%
6.6%
4.6%
2.4%
3
1.5%
3.1%
3.2%
2.2%
1.1%
4
0.5%
1.1%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sogndal goals (down), columns = Stromsgodset goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Ranheim
0.50
Raufoss
0.50
Moss
0.29
Sogndal is 0.69 points worse than Stromsgodset in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Sogndal is 0.31 goals worse than Stromsgodset in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 2.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Sogndal is 0.43 goals worse than Stromsgodset in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sogndal or Draw✗ Miss
48.8%
Avg Implied 38.5% · @ 2.42
Edge
+10.4%
26%
23%
51%
covers Sogndal + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.60
10Bet
2.55
BetVictor
2.50
SBO
2.47
Betano
2.47
Sogndal or Stromsgodset✓ Hit
77.0%
Avg Implied 81.3% · @ 1.15
Edge
-4.3%
26%
23%
51%
covers Sogndal + Stromsgodset
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Draw or Stromsgodset✓ Hit
74.2%
Avg Implied 80.3% · @ 1.16
Edge
-6.0%
26%
23%
51%
covers Draw + Stromsgodset
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sogndal over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.2%
@ 1.23+0.9%
Under
23.8%
@ 3.76-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.24
Bet365
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Under
Superbet
4.20
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.91
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Sogndal over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
42.0%
@ 2.14-1.2%
Under
58.0%
@ 1.63+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.29
Betfair
2.25
BetVictor
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
1xBet
2.19
Under
Superbet
1.78
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.63
Sogndal over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.5%
@ 4.57-2.9%
Under
82.5%
@ 1.17+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.20
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
Betano
4.40
Under
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.16
Sogndal over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.8%
@ 9.92-3.7%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.04+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Stromsgodset over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
87.3%
@ 1.04-3.1%
Under
12.7%
@ 9.75+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Under
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
8.00
Stromsgodset over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
61.1%
@ 1.28-11.5%
Under
38.9%
@ 3.39+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
Pinnacle
3.58
Marathonbet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Stromsgodset over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
34.0%
@ 1.89-15.2%
Under
66.0%
@ 1.83+15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.02
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Marathonbet
1.89
Under
Betfair
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.83
Stromsgodset over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
15.4%
@ 3.30-12.8%
Under
84.6%
@ 1.29+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Pinnacle
3.42
BetVictor
3.30
Betano
3.25
Under
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Unibet
1.30
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sogndal, so a minus line means Sogndal give that many goals of a start and Stromsgodset receive them. At -1, Sogndal must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sogndal win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sogndal)Actual: Stromsgodset
Sogndal -2
4.2%
@ 21.00-0.3%
Draw -2
7.6%
@ 13.00+0.3%
Stromsgodset +2
88.2%
@ 1.07-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
21.00
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Away
Bet365
1.07
Handicap -1 (Sogndal)Actual: Stromsgodset
Sogndal -1
11.8%
@ 8.87+1.7%
Draw -1
14.0%
@ 6.90+1.0%
Stromsgodset +1
74.2%
@ 1.17-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
9.10
Bet365
9.00
Unibet
8.50
Draw
Marathonbet
7.20
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.50
Away
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
Handicap +1 (Sogndal)Actual: Draw
Sogndal +1
48.8%
@ 2.43+12.3%
Draw +1
20.5%
@ 4.14-1.0%
Stromsgodset -1
30.7%
@ 2.12-11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.55
Betfair
2.50
Marathonbet
2.46
Unibet
2.38
Bet365
2.25
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.90
Away
Bet365
2.25
Unibet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.11
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.00
Handicap +2 (Sogndal)Actual: Sogndal
Sogndal +2
69.3%
@ 1.59+13.5%
Draw +2
15.7%
@ 4.66-3.4%
Stromsgodset -2
15.0%
@ 3.54-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.62
Unibet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
Bet365
1.57
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.35
Away
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.42
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sogndal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.63
0.73
0.27
0.73
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.59
0.71
0.21
0.85
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Stromsgodset) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stromsgodset
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.07
0.53
1.00
0.87
1.13
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.58
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.83
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.76
0.44
0.78
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
0.00
-
-
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sogndal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
71.7%
@ 1.14-9.9%
Under 0.5
28.3%
@ 5.06+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
1xBet
5.10
Marathonbet
5.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
35.6%
@ 1.72-18.3%
Under 1.5
64.4%
@ 2.02+18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Under
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
Superbet
2.02
Unibet
2.02
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
12.2%
@ 3.25-16.3%
Under 2.5
87.8%
@ 1.29+16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
William Hil
3.25
Betano
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Under
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sogndal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
43.9%
@ 1.93-4.3%
Under
56.1%
@ 1.79+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.05
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.93
1xBet
1.90
Unibet
1.88
Under
Superbet
1.88
1xBet
1.80
Unibet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
Sogndal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.1%
@ 5.67-4.2%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.10+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.10
1xBet
5.60
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Sogndal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 10.50-6.8%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Stromsgodset over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
50.6%
@ 1.39-16.2%
Under
49.4%
@ 2.80+16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.41
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Unibet
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Under
Pinnacle
2.92
1xBet
2.85
Superbet
2.75
Unibet
2.75
Betano
2.72
Stromsgodset over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
11.8%
@ 2.75-22.0%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.40+22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.88
Betano
2.80
Marathonbet
2.72
1xBet
2.70
Unibet
2.63
Under
1xBet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.41
Unibet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.40
Betano
1.38
Stromsgodset over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 6.40-12.0%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.07+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.70
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.06
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sogndal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
0.60
1.27
1.07
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
4.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.93
0.93
0.64
1.07
1.23
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Stromsgodset) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stromsgodset
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.17
0.67
1.13
0.73
1.20
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.17
0.50
1.17
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (17)
0.94
1.24
0.78
1.11
1.12
1.38
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Sogndal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
84.7%
@ 1.07-2.5%
Under 0.5
15.3%
@ 7.30+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Under
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.80
William Hil
7.00
Betano
6.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
51.6%
@ 1.41-13.9%
Under 1.5
48.4%
@ 2.67+13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.44
Marathonbet
1.41
Superbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.72
Superbet
2.67
1xBet
2.66
Marathonbet
2.66
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.8%
@ 2.27-20.0%
Under 2.5
79.2%
@ 1.56+20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.38
Marathonbet
2.27
Superbet
2.27
1xBet
2.27
Bet365
2.25
Under
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.57
1xBet
1.55
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sogndal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
51.4%
@ 1.64-5.3%
Under
48.6%
@ 2.14+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.68
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Superbet
1.57
Under
Superbet
2.27
1xBet
2.13
Betano
2.12
Marathonbet
2.03
Sogndal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.1%
@ 4.15-8.2%
Under
85.9%
@ 1.19+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.50
1xBet
4.10
Betano
3.85
Under
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
Sogndal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 9.12-6.6%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.02+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Stromsgodset over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
65.1%
@ 1.23-10.3%
Under
34.9%
@ 3.75+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Under
1xBet
3.80
Betano
3.70
Stromsgodset over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
27.3%
@ 2.13-16.3%
Under
72.7%
@ 1.65+16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.10
Betano
2.05
Under
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.65
Superbet
1.57
Stromsgodset over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.9%
@ 4.22-15.9%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.18+15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.40
Betano
4.05
Under
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.16
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.07
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
+12.0%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.3%
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
1.02
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
1.18
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.16
-
-
-
+15.9%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
93.5%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Unibet
1.07
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
88.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.9%
1.10
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.8%
1.29
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
+16.3%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
87.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.03
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
87.3%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
-
-3.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.9%
1.19
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
-
-
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
85.8%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.24
+10.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.08
1xBet
1.05
-
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
84.6%
1.29
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Unibet
1.30
+12.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
82.5%
1.17
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.16
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.2%
1.56
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.57
1xBet
1.55
+20.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
77.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Unibet
1.15
-4.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
76.2%
1.23
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.24
Bet365
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
74.2%
1.16
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
-6.0%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
74.2%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
-
-
-2.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
72.7%
1.65
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.65
Superbet
1.57
-
+16.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
72.6%
1.53
Betfair
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
+12.2%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.7%
1.14
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
-9.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Stromsgodset · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jonas Therkelsen29%
Marko Farji24%
Jesper Taaje15%
Johan Johanessen Bakke12%
Alie Conteh12%
Logi Tomasson11%
Herman Stengel10%
Nikolaj Möller10%
Kreshnik Krasniqi10%
Ole Kristian Enersen8%
Gustav Wikheim7%
Lars Christopher Vilsvik7%
Gustav Valsvik7%
Fredrik Kristensen Dahl7%
Fredrik Pau Vilaseca Ardraa7%
Marcus Mehnert5%
Bent Sormo0%
Eirik Johansen0%
Per Kristian Bråtveit0%
Elias Hoff Melkersen0%
Sivert Eriksen Westerlund0%
James Ampofo0%
Andreas Heredia-Randen0%
Samuel Silalahi0%
André Stavas Skistad0%
Mats Spiten0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Johan Johanessen Bakke25%
Logi Tomasson22%
Marko Farji21%
Jesper Taaje19%
Fredrik Pau Vilaseca Ardraa17%
Jonas Therkelsen14%
Gustav Valsvik14%
Elias Hoff Melkersen12%
Marcus Mehnert10%
Kreshnik Krasniqi10%
James Ampofo8%
Ole Kristian Enersen8%
Gustav Wikheim7%
Lars Christopher Vilsvik7%
Bent Sormo5%
Per Kristian Bråtveit4%
Fredrik Kristensen Dahl3%
Eirik Johansen0%
Herman Stengel0%
Sivert Eriksen Westerlund0%
Nikolaj Möller0%
Alie Conteh0%
Andreas Heredia-Randen0%
Samuel Silalahi0%
André Stavas Skistad0%
Mats Spiten0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gustav Wikheim21%
James Ampofo17%
Marko Farji14%
Elias Hoff Melkersen12%
Lars Christopher Vilsvik11%
Fredrik Kristensen Dahl10%
Fredrik Pau Vilaseca Ardraa10%
Marcus Mehnert10%
Ole Kristian Enersen8%
Johan Johanessen Bakke6%
Alie Conteh6%
Gustav Valsvik3%
Herman Stengel3%
Logi Tomasson0%
Bent Sormo0%
Eirik Johansen0%
Per Kristian Bråtveit0%
Jesper Taaje0%
Sivert Eriksen Westerlund0%
Kreshnik Krasniqi0%
Nikolaj Möller0%
Andreas Heredia-Randen0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Samuel Silalahi0%
André Stavas Skistad0%
Mats Spiten0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alie Conteh31%
Marko Farji28%
Logi Tomasson22%
Jonas Therkelsen14%
Elias Hoff Melkersen12%
Johan Johanessen Bakke12%
Fredrik Pau Vilaseca Ardraa7%
Gustav Valsvik3%
Herman Stengel3%
Gustav Wikheim0%
Bent Sormo0%
Eirik Johansen0%
Lars Christopher Vilsvik0%
Per Kristian Bråtveit0%
Marcus Mehnert0%
Fredrik Kristensen Dahl0%
Jesper Taaje0%
Sivert Eriksen Westerlund0%
Kreshnik Krasniqi0%
Nikolaj Möller0%
James Ampofo0%
Ole Kristian Enersen0%
Andreas Heredia-Randen0%
Samuel Silalahi0%
André Stavas Skistad0%
Mats Spiten0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Sogndal's squad is €3m less valuable than Stromsgodset's (€4m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Sogndal's attack is €2m less valuable than Stromsgodset's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Sogndal and Stromsgodset have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Sogndal and Stromsgodset have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stabaek
Haugesund
hodd
Kongsvinger
Bryne
Lyn
Egersund
Strommen
ODD Ballklubb
Asane
Sandnes ULF
Ranheim
Raufoss
Moss