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Solihull vs Boreham Wood Result & Analysis

Date: 18/09/2021
Time: 15:00
Final 3-1
Solihull
Solihull
Vs
43%
30%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Boreham Wood
Boreham Wood
England: National League
Referee: A Quelch
Match preview & prediction

Solihull are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model favouring a home win. The average goal count sits at 2.4, so a modest 2-goal total is expected. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a draw that carries a 14.1% chance. Solihull, playing against a stronger side, have scored an average of 1.11 goals and conceded 1.56 at home. Boreham Wood, on the road to a weaker opponent, average 1.18 goals scored and 1.0 conceded away. The model gives Solihull a 43% chance of victory, a 30% chance of a draw, and Boreham Wood a 28% chance of triumph. Suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 83.6%, Under 3.5 at 77.7%, and Over 1.5 at 70.6%. The recent form narrative shows Solihull coming off five consecutive losses, while Boreham Wood enjoy a three-game winning streak.

Results analysis

Solihull’s win extends a five-match losing streak, yet the National League clash ended 3-1 in their favour, confirming the model’s home win pick with a 43% probability. The prediction of a 2-goal total proved too low; the match saw four goals, but the most likely score of 1-1 at 14.1% was missed. The model’s selections performed well: Over 2.5 cards hit at 83.6%, Over 1.5 hit at 70.6%, while Under 3.5 missed at 77.7%. The favourite call was correct, and the overall outcome matched the model’s expectations, underscoring its reliability in this fixture.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Solihull win✓ Hit
42.7%
Avg Implied 37.4% · @ 2.48
Edge
+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.21
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood win✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied 33.7% · @ 2.75
Edge
-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SolihullSolihull

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W10W41W11D20W22D11D34L21W21WH·WOK15/05H·BAR19/05A·WEA22/05A·KIN25/05H·EAS29/05H·WRE21/08H·BAR28/08H·WEY04/09A·ALD11/09H·TOR14/09
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.271.781.171.171.42
vs Stronger (15)1.131.601.111.561.171.67
vs Similar (15)1.930.932.440.781.171.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Boreham WoodBoreham Wood

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L31W01L14L20W10W10W00D32W22DH·WRE15/05A·WEY18/05A·EAS22/05H·MAI29/05A·WEY21/08H·ALD28/08A·DOV30/08H·STO04/09A·BRO11/09H·HAL14/09
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.301.441.501.291.07
vs Stronger (3)0.672.000.672.00--
vs Similar (8)1.121.380.801.401.671.33
vs Weaker (19)1.581.162.121.381.181.00
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Solihull) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.6%
Under 1.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.2%
@ 2.09-1.6%
Under 2.5
56.8%
@ 1.70+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.3%
Under 3.5
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.5%
No
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
1-0
11.0%
0-0
10.3%
2-1
8.7%
2-0
8.3%
0-1
8.1%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
4.9%
Solihull goals ↓
Boreham Wood goals →
01234
010%8.1%4.9%1.7%0.4%
111%14%6.7%2.3%0.6%
28.3%8.7%4.6%1.6%0.4%
33.8%4.0%2.1%0.7%0.2%
41.3%1.3%0.7%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Solihull goals (down), columns = Boreham Wood goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stockport
2.14
Wrexham
2.00
Solihull
1.98
Halifax
1.91
Notts County
1.86
Grimsby
1.75
Chesterfield
1.68
Dag and Red
1.66
Bromley
1.52
Boreham Wood
1.52
Torquay
1.50
Yeovil
1.34
Southend
1.32
Altrincham
1.25
Woking
1.20
Wealdstone
1.20
Maidenhead
1.16
Barnet
1.14
Eastleigh
1.05
Aldershot
0.98
King’s Lynn
0.77
Weymouth
0.64
Dover Athletic
0.30
Solihull is 0.45 points better than Boreham Wood in terms of average points per game (1.98 vs 1.52).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Wrexham
2.07
Stockport
1.98
Solihull
1.89
Notts County
1.84
Dag and Red
1.82
Chesterfield
1.57
Grimsby
1.55
Torquay
1.50
Halifax
1.41
Altrincham
1.41
Bromley
1.39
Woking
1.34
Barnet
1.34
Eastleigh
1.18
Wealdstone
1.16
Boreham Wood
1.11
Maidenhead
1.09
King’s Lynn
1.07
Aldershot
1.05
Southend
1.02
Yeovil
0.98
Weymouth
0.91
Dover Athletic
0.84
Solihull is 0.77 goals better than Boreham Wood in terms of goals scored per game (1.89 vs 1.11).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Halifax
0.80
Stockport
0.86
Boreham Wood
0.91
Solihull
1.02
Grimsby
1.05
Wrexham
1.05
Yeovil
1.05
Chesterfield
1.16
Notts County
1.18
Bromley
1.20
Dag and Red
1.20
Torquay
1.23
Woking
1.39
Southend
1.39
Wealdstone
1.48
Maidenhead
1.52
Altrincham
1.57
Aldershot
1.66
Eastleigh
1.68
King’s Lynn
1.80
Weymouth
2.00
Barnet
2.02
Dover Athletic
2.30
Solihull is 0.11 goals worse than Boreham Wood in terms of goals conceded per game (1.02 vs 0.91).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SolihullSolihull

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D20W01L20W12L10W13L11D10WH·WOK15/05H·BAR19/05A·WEA22/05A·KIN25/05H·EAS29/05H·WRE21/08H·BAR28/08H·WEY04/09A·ALD11/09H·TOR14/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.770.670.720.500.83
vs Stronger (15)0.401.070.331.000.501.17
vs Similar (15)0.800.471.000.440.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Boreham WoodBoreham Wood

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W20W00D02L20W00D10W00D10W21WH·WRE15/05A·WEY18/05A·EAS22/05H·MAI29/05A·WEY21/08H·ALD28/08A·DOV30/08H·STO04/09A·BRO11/09H·HAL14/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.470.620.690.710.21
vs Stronger (3)0.670.670.670.67--
vs Similar (8)0.500.250.400.400.670.00
vs Weaker (19)0.740.530.750.880.730.27
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Solihull) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Solihull over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SolihullSolihull

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W21W10W00D10W01L21W10W11DH·WOK15/05H·BAR19/05A·WEA22/05A·KIN25/05H·EAS29/05H·WRE21/08H·BAR28/08H·WEY04/09A·ALD11/09H·TOR14/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.501.110.440.670.58
vs Stronger (15)0.730.530.780.560.670.50
vs Similar (15)1.130.471.440.330.670.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Boreham WoodBoreham Wood

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L11D01L12L00D10W00D00D22D01LH·WRE15/05A·WEY18/05A·EAS22/05H·MAI29/05A·WEY21/08H·ALD28/08A·DOV30/08H·STO04/09A·BRO11/09H·HAL14/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.830.810.810.570.86
vs Stronger (3)0.001.330.001.33--
vs Similar (8)0.621.120.401.001.001.33
vs Weaker (19)0.840.631.380.500.450.73
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Solihull) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Solihull over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards83.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.577.7%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.570.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
STO (25)
€10m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
STO (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
GRI (8)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
STO (6)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
STO (11)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
SOL wins
1
Draws
0
BW wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Solihull vs Boreham Wood · H/A from SOL
DateH/AGameScore
27/02/21ABoreham Wood Vs SOL2-2
17/10/20HSOL Vs Boreham Wood1-0

SolihullSolihull

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/09/21HSOL Vs Torquay2-1
11/09/21AAldershot Vs SOL1-2
04/09/21HSOL Vs Weymouth3-4
28/08/21HSOL Vs Barnet1-1
21/08/21HSOL Vs Wrexham2-2
29/05/21HSOL Vs Eastleigh2-0
25/05/21AKing’s Lynn Vs SOL1-1
22/05/21AWealdstone Vs SOL1-4
19/05/21HSOL Vs Barnet1-0
15/05/21HSOL Vs Woking2-1

Boreham WoodBoreham Wood

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/09/21HBW Vs Halifax2-2
11/09/21ABromley Vs BW2-3
04/09/21HBW Vs Stockport0-0
30/08/21ADover Athletic Vs BW0-1
28/08/21HBW Vs Aldershot1-0
21/08/21AWeymouth Vs BW0-2
29/05/21HBW Vs Maidenhead1-4
22/05/21AEastleigh Vs BW1-0
18/05/21AWeymouth Vs BW1-3
15/05/21HBW Vs Wrexham2-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Solihull
Solihull
England: National League
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWW1.56
HomeWDDLW2.08
AwayLLWDW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%64%26%
AVG goals2.652.762.52
Over 1.5 %75%72%78%
Over 2.5 %50%56%43%
Over 3.5 %25%24%26%
Scored1.461.801.09
Conceded1.190.961.43
BTTS48%48%48%
Clean Sheet31%40%22%
Corners---
Cards3.603.204.04
Boreham Wood
Boreham Wood
England: National League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWD1.43
HomeLLWDD1.21
AwayWLWWW1.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%25%44%
AVG goals2.352.462.24
Over 1.5 %57%54%60%
Over 2.5 %43%50%36%
Over 3.5 %31%42%20%
Scored1.271.211.32
Conceded1.081.250.92
BTTS47%50%44%
Clean Sheet37%38%36%
Corners---
Cards3.433.293.56

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StockportStockport4494
68%
2.1
8738+49
2.8
75%
61%
25%
-
0%
3.6
50%
-
0%
10
3342.00.9
-
2WrexhamWrexham4488
59%
2.0
9146+45
3.1
80%
52%
34%
-
0%
3.2
39%
-
0%
77
1523392.11.0
-
3SolihullSolihull4487
57%
2.0
8345+38
2.9
77%
55%
34%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
4HalifaxHalifax4484
57%
1.9
6235+27
2.2
66%
34%
20%
-
0%
3.3
45%
-
0%
0
0001.40.8
-
5Notts CountyNotts County4482
55%
1.9
8152+29
3.0
82%
52%
34%
-
0%
4.3
61%
-
0%
6
2221.81.2
-
6GrimsbyGrimsby4477
52%
1.8
6846+22
2.6
64%
48%
30%
-
0%
3.0
45%
-
0%
4
1021.51.0
-
7ChesterfieldChesterfield4474
45%
1.7
6951+18
2.7
75%
45%
39%
-
0%
3.7
45%
-
0%
6
3121.61.2
-
8
DA
Dag and Red
4473
50%
1.7
8053+27
3.0
80%
61%
32%
-
0%
2.9
41%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
9Boreham WoodBoreham Wood4467
41%
1.5
4940+9
2.0
61%
30%
16%
-
0%
3.1
32%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
10BromleyBromley4467
41%
1.5
6153+8
2.6
75%
43%
27%
-
0%
3.4
48%
-
0%
4
1121.41.2
-
11
T
Torquay
4466
41%
1.5
6654+12
2.7
80%
55%
30%
-
0%
3.4
50%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
12YeovilYeovil4459
34%
1.3
4346-3
2.0
70%
39%
7%
-
0%
4.3
66%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
13SouthendSouthend4458
36%
1.3
4561-16
2.4
68%
41%
23%
-
0%
3.7
48%
-
0%
1
0001.01.4
-
14AltrinchamAltrincham4455
34%
1.2
6269-7
3.0
80%
52%
39%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
15WokingWoking4453
36%
1.2
5961-2
2.7
73%
48%
32%
-
0%
4.3
57%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
16WealdstoneWealdstone4453
32%
1.2
5165-14
2.6
70%
52%
30%
-
0%
3.4
48%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
17
M
Maidenhead
4451
30%
1.2
4867-19
2.6
73%
45%
32%
-
0%
3.2
32%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
18BarnetBarnet4450
30%
1.1
5989-30
3.4
84%
64%
41%
-
0%
3.5
48%
-
0%
4
0131.32.0
-
19EastleighEastleigh4446
27%
1.0
5274-22
2.9
73%
50%
30%
-
0%
3.9
59%
-
0%
1
0001.21.7
-
20AldershotAldershot4443
25%
1.0
4673-27
2.7
77%
52%
32%
-
0%
4.2
61%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
21
KL
King’s Lynn
4434
18%
0.8
4779-32
2.9
70%
52%
32%
-
0%
3.4
45%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
22
W
Weymouth
4428
14%
0.6
4088-48
2.9
80%
50%
32%
-
0%
2.7
41%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
23
DA
Dover Athletic
4413
5%
0.3
37101-64
3.1
73%
59%
39%
-
0%
3.2
48%
-
0%
0
0000.82.3
-
England: National League 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

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