Sonderjyske’s recent win over Thisted FC gives them a slight lift, yet the match remains finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. The probability split is 38% for a Sonderjyske victory, 30% for a draw and 32% for AC Horsens. The expected total is 2.4 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.2% chance. Sonderjyske, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.56 goals scored and 0.78 conceded, while AC Horsens, on the road, averages 1.33 scored and 0.67 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.4% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7% with a 3% edge), Under 5.5 (98.0% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.0% with a 4% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (97.6% with a 7% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.5% with a 4% edge) and Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.1% with a 3% edge).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sonderjyske win
38.9%
Avg Implied 42.9% · @ 2.18
Edge
-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.26
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.22
1xBet
2.22
Dafabet
2.21
Draw
30.1%
Avg Implied 27.6% · @ 3.38
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.45
Superbet
3.45
AC Horsens win
31.0%
Avg Implied 29.5% · @ 3.16
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Dafabet
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Betfair
3.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sonderjyske
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.53
1.43
1.43
1.06
1.62
vs Stronger (10)
1.20
2.20
1.20
2.60
1.20
1.80
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.20
1.56
0.78
1.00
1.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Horsens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AC Horsens
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.10
1.62
1.44
1.43
0.71
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.58
1.08
1.79
1.43
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Sonderjyske) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.6%
@ 1.25-4.5%
Under 1.5
29.4%
@ 3.74+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Under
Unibet
4.20
Superbet
3.80
Betfair
3.80
Pinnacle
3.78
Bet365
3.75
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
43.2%
@ 1.83-8.5%
Under 2.5
56.8%
@ 1.96+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Betfair
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.85
Under
Unibet
2.08
Betano
2.00
SBO
1.98
Superbet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.96
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.2%
@ 3.06-8.4%
Under 3.5
77.8%
@ 1.35+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Betano
3.10
Pinnacle
3.10
Under
Unibet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Both teams to score
Yes
50.0%
@ 1.65-6.1%
No
50.0%
@ 2.12+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.65
BetVictor
1.65
No
Unibet
2.18
10Bet
2.15
Betano
2.15
William Hil
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%@ 6.30+7.1%
0-0
10.3%@ 10.41+6.0%
1-0
10.3%@ 7.89+4.6%
0-1
8.8%@ 10.00+4.3%
2-1
8.3%@ 8.23+2.9%
2-0
7.4%@ 10.41+3.1%
1-2
7.3%@ 10.26+2.9%
0-2
5.7%@ 16.05+2.9%
Sonderjyske goals ↓
AC Horsens goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.8%
5.7%
2.1%
0.6%
1
10%
14%
7.3%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.4%
8.3%
4.7%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.2%
3.6%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sonderjyske goals (down), columns = AC Horsens goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Copenhagen
2.50
FC Midtjylland
2.33
Viborg
2.17
FC Nordsjaelland
2.17
Brondby
2.17
Randers FC
1.17
AC Horsens
1.17
Silkeborg
0.83
Odense
0.83
Lyngby
0.50
Aarhus
0.50
Sonderjyske
0.17
Sonderjyske is 1.00 points worse than AC Horsens in terms of average points per game (0.17 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Copenhagen
2.50
Brondby
1.83
Viborg
1.67
FC Midtjylland
1.67
FC Nordsjaelland
1.50
AC Horsens
1.33
Lyngby
1.17
Aarhus
1.17
Silkeborg
0.83
Sonderjyske
0.83
Randers FC
0.83
Odense
0.83
Sonderjyske is 0.50 goals worse than AC Horsens in terms of goals scored per game (0.83 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Viborg
0.67
FC Nordsjaelland
0.67
FC Midtjylland
0.83
Odense
1.17
Brondby
1.17
Randers FC
1.33
FC Copenhagen
1.33
Silkeborg
1.50
AC Horsens
1.67
Lyngby
1.83
Aarhus
1.83
Sonderjyske
2.17
Sonderjyske is 0.50 goals worse than AC Horsens in terms of goals conceded per game (2.17 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Nordsjaelland
59%
Aarhus
58%
FC Midtjylland
55%
Brondby
55%
FC Copenhagen
52%
Lyngby
52%
Odense
51%
Silkeborg
47%
Viborg
47%
Randers FC
43%
AC Horsens
43%
Sonderjyske
39%
Sonderjyske is 3.8 percentage points worse than AC Horsens in terms of average possession (39% vs 43%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sonderjyske
For 4.0 · Against 6.6 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 9.1 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AC Horsens
For 3.0 · Against 8.3 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 10.3 · Total 25.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sonderjyske
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.0
10.7
3.2
3.8
2.6
21.9
22.5
21.3
vs Stronger (13)
9.4
9.0
9.8
3.8
4.6
3.0
23.6
25.4
21.5
vs Similar (36)
10.7
10.4
10.9
3.0
3.4
2.6
21.2
21.2
21.3
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
67%
65%
70%
34%
43%
26%
48%
57%
39%
% under line
33%
35%
30%
66%
57%
74%
52%
43%
61%
This opponent (AC Horsens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AC Horsens
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
11.5
11.0
0.5
0.7
0.2
25.7
25.0
27.0
vs Stronger (4)
12.0
13.0
10.0
2.8
3.0
2.5
24.3
20.5
32.0
vs Similar (44)
10.7
10.0
12.0
0.3
0.5
0.0
27.0
29.5
22.0
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
67%
50%
100%
8%
12%
4%
83%
75%
100%
% under line
33%
50%
0%
92%
88%
96%
17%
25%
0%
This opponent (Sonderjyske) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Odense
11.0
AC Horsens
10.6
FC Midtjylland
10.4
Sonderjyske
10.2
Lyngby
10.1
Randers FC
9.9
Viborg
9.8
FC Copenhagen
9.6
Aarhus
9.6
Silkeborg
9.6
Brondby
9.6
FC Nordsjaelland
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Brondby
4.6
FC Midtjylland
4.3
Aarhus
3.9
Lyngby
3.9
AC Horsens
3.8
FC Nordsjaelland
3.8
Sonderjyske
3.7
Viborg
3.7
FC Copenhagen
3.7
Randers FC
3.4
Odense
3.3
Silkeborg
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Midtjylland
28.1
Viborg
24.9
Brondby
24.5
Aarhus
24.3
Lyngby
24.1
FC Copenhagen
23.8
Randers FC
22.1
Odense
21.8
Sonderjyske
21.8
FC Nordsjaelland
21.6
AC Horsens
19.9
Silkeborg
18.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
58.2%
@ 1.48-4.2%
Under 9.5
41.8%
@ 2.45+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.43
Under
Marathonbet
2.50
Betano
2.50
Unibet
2.43
Superbet
2.37
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
48.2%
@ 1.71-5.9%
Under 3.5
51.8%
@ 2.02+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.78
Betano
1.78
Unibet
1.57
Under
Unibet
2.20
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.88
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
73.0%
Under 21.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sonderjyske or Draw
67.7%
Avg Implied 70.6% · @ 1.33
Edge
-3.0%
39%
30%
31%
covers Sonderjyske + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
William Hil
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
Sonderjyske or AC Horsens
67.3%
Avg Implied 72.8% · @ 1.29
Edge
-5.5%
39%
30%
31%
covers Sonderjyske + AC Horsens
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Draw or AC Horsens
65.0%
Avg Implied 56.6% · @ 1.66
Edge
+8.5%
39%
30%
31%
covers Draw + AC Horsens
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.74
SBO
1.70
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.67
Betfair
1.67
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sonderjyske over/under 0.5
Over
65.8%
@ 1.20-11.3%
Under
34.2%
@ 4.04+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Under
Unibet
4.40
Pinnacle
4.13
Marathonbet
4.05
10Bet
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Sonderjyske over/under 1.5
Over
29.1%
@ 2.07-16.1%
Under
70.9%
@ 1.71+16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.15
1xBet
2.11
Marathonbet
2.11
Betfair
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
Under
Unibet
1.81
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.70
Sonderjyske over/under 2.5
Over
9.4%
@ 4.39-11.8%
Under
90.6%
@ 1.18+11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.75
1xBet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Under
Unibet
1.21
Betano
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Sonderjyske over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
@ 10.12-6.9%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.04+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.70
Betfair
10.00
Superbet
9.90
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.02
AC Horsens over/under 0.5
Over
64.0%
@ 1.33-5.6%
Under
36.0%
@ 3.05+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.35
BetVictor
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.20
1xBet
3.08
Marathonbet
3.08
Betano
3.05
Superbet
3.05
AC Horsens over/under 1.5
Over
27.2%
@ 2.64-8.0%
Under
72.8%
@ 1.44+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.74
Marathonbet
2.68
1xBet
2.66
BetVictor
2.63
Under
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.45
Superbet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Bet365
1.44
AC Horsens over/under 2.5
Over
8.4%
@ 6.37-6.1%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.09+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.75
Marathonbet
6.75
BetVictor
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
AC Horsens over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
@ 15.08-4.3%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sonderjyske, so a minus line means Sonderjyske give that many goals of a start and AC Horsens receive them. At -1, Sonderjyske must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sonderjyske win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sonderjyske)
Sonderjyske -2
4.4%
@ 8.85-5.8%
Draw -2
10.1%
@ 6.10-4.7%
AC Horsens +2
85.6%
@ 1.20+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
9.10
10Bet
8.50
Superbet
8.00
Draw
Marathonbet
6.70
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Away
Unibet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Handicap -1 (Sonderjyske)
Sonderjyske -1
14.4%
@ 3.94-8.3%
Draw -1
20.5%
@ 3.85-2.7%
AC Horsens +1
65.0%
@ 1.66+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
4.15
10Bet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Draw
Marathonbet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
10Bet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Away
Unibet
1.73
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
Handicap +1 (Sonderjyske)
Sonderjyske +1
67.7%
@ 1.32-0.6%
Draw +1
19.5%
@ 4.88+1.1%
AC Horsens -1
12.8%
@ 6.71-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Unibet
4.80
Superbet
4.80
Away
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.65
Unibet
6.50
Handicap +2 (Sonderjyske)
Sonderjyske +2
87.2%
@ 1.08+2.6%
Draw +2
9.1%
@ 9.50-0.5%
AC Horsens -2
3.7%
@ 15.67-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
9.50
Unibet
9.00
Away
Betfair
17.00
Bet365
17.00
Unibet
13.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sonderjyske
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.79
0.71
0.25
0.81
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.10
0.80
1.60
0.60
0.60
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.60
0.78
0.22
0.09
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Horsens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AC Horsens
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.63
0.81
0.75
0.64
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.58
0.86
0.71
0.67
0.42
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Sonderjyske) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.2%
@ 1.35+3.1%
Under 0.5
27.8%
@ 3.01-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.37
BetVictor
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Under
Betfair
3.20
Unibet
3.15
Pinnacle
3.12
William Hil
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.3%
@ 2.63+0.9%
Under 1.5
63.7%
@ 1.44-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.77
Pinnacle
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Marathonbet
2.69
1xBet
2.69
Under
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.45
William Hil
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.8%
@ 6.51-2.5%
Under 2.5
88.2%
@ 1.08+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.75
1xBet
6.75
Superbet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sonderjyske over/under 0.5 HT
Over
54.3%
@ 1.88+5.0%
Under
45.7%
@ 1.83-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.90
Superbet
1.88
Under
Unibet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.83
Betano
1.80
Sonderjyske over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.1%
@ 5.50-2.7%
Under
85.9%
@ 1.11+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.10
Marathonbet
6.10
Betano
5.50
Superbet
5.30
Unibet
5.00
Under
Unibet
1.14
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.08
Sonderjyske over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.5%
@ 14.50-4.1%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
AC Horsens over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.9%
@ 2.19-4.4%
Under
62.1%
@ 1.61+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.27
Betano
2.22
Marathonbet
2.20
Superbet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Under
10Bet
1.65
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
Superbet
1.61
AC Horsens over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.4%
@ 7.33-4.2%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.06+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.20
Marathonbet
8.20
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
1xBet
1.04
AC Horsens over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
@ 21.17-3.3%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sonderjyske
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.64
0.71
0.81
0.81
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.10
0.40
1.00
0.60
1.20
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.60
0.78
0.56
0.91
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Horsens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AC Horsens
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.47
0.81
0.69
0.79
0.21
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.50
0.93
0.71
0.67
0.25
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Sonderjyske) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.4%
@ 1.20+1.1%
Under 0.5
21.6%
@ 4.10-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.23
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.18
Under
Unibet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Superbet
4.10
Betano
4.10
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.3%
@ 2.00-0.5%
Under 1.5
53.7%
@ 1.76+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.07
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
Betano
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Under
Unibet
1.84
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.74
Superbet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.4%
@ 4.20-3.8%
Under 2.5
81.6%
@ 1.20+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.40
Superbet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
Under
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sonderjyske over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.9%
@ 1.61-1.6%
Under
44.1%
@ 2.18+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.63
1xBet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Under
Betano
2.25
10Bet
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.15
Superbet
2.15
Sonderjyske over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.3%
@ 3.99+4.1%
Under
72.7%
@ 1.20-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.00
Superbet
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Sonderjyske over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.4%
@ 10.25-3.7%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.02+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
AC Horsens over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.3%
@ 1.84+0.0%
Under
49.7%
@ 1.86-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.83
Under
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
AC Horsens over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.5%
@ 5.24-1.1%
Under
83.5%
@ 1.12+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.60
1xBet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.25
Betano
4.80
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
AC Horsens over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.9%
@ 14.83-2.5%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.02+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+3.6%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.3%
Under 5.5
98.0%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Unibet
1.03
+6.3%
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.3%
Home under 3.5 goals
97.6%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.02
+6.9%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+4.1%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+2.5%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.6%
1.02
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
+3.7%
Under 4.5
93.8%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Unibet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Pinnacle
1.13
+9.8%
Away under 2.5 goals
91.6%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
+6.1%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.6%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
1xBet
1.04
+4.2%
Home under 2.5 goals
90.6%
1.18
Unibet
1.21
Betano
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
+11.8%
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.2%
1.08
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
+2.5%
Home +2 handicap
87.2%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
-
-
+2.6%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.9%
1.11
Unibet
1.14
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.08
+2.7%
Away +2 handicap
85.6%
1.20
Unibet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+10.6%
Over 19.5 fouls
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.5%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
+1.1%
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.6%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.18
+3.8%
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.4%
1.20
Superbet
1.23
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.18
+1.1%
Under 3.5
77.8%
1.35
Unibet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
+8.4%
Over 21.5 fouls
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
72.8%
1.44
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.45
Superbet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Bet365
1.44
+8.0%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
72.7%
1.20
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
-4.1%
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.2%
1.35
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.37
BetVictor
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
+3.1%
Home under 1.5 goals
70.9%
1.71
Unibet
1.81
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.70
+16.1%
Under 4.5 cards
70.9%
1.51
Unibet
1.62
Superbet
1.40
-
-
-
+10.3%
Over 1.5
70.6%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
-4.5%
Over 8.5 corners
70.2%
1.28
Superbet
1.32
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.23
-
-1.8%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sonderjyske
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mohamed Cherif Haidara33%
Bubacarr Tambedou25%
Marcus Bundgaard Sorensen0%
Jacob Christensen0%
Andreas Oggesen0%
Brynjar Ingi Bjarnason0%
Maxime Soulas0%
Daníel Grétarsson0%
Dalton Wilkins0%
Sefer Emini0%
Chidiebube Duru0%
Matthew Hoppe0%
Ismaïl Seydi0%
Anders Hoeg0%
David Boison Frimpong0%
Gustav Wagner0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sefer Emini50%
Ismaïl Seydi40%
Matthew Hoppe33%
Maxime Soulas17%
Marcus Bundgaard Sorensen0%
Jacob Christensen0%
Andreas Oggesen0%
Brynjar Ingi Bjarnason0%
Daníel Grétarsson0%
Dalton Wilkins0%
Chidiebube Duru0%
Bubacarr Tambedou0%
Mohamed Cherif Haidara0%
Anders Hoeg0%
David Boison Frimpong0%
Gustav Wagner0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ismaïl Seydi20%
Maxime Soulas17%
Sefer Emini17%
Marcus Bundgaard Sorensen0%
Jacob Christensen0%
Andreas Oggesen0%
Brynjar Ingi Bjarnason0%
Daníel Grétarsson0%
Dalton Wilkins0%
Chidiebube Duru0%
Matthew Hoppe0%
Bubacarr Tambedou0%
Mohamed Cherif Haidara0%
Anders Hoeg0%
David Boison Frimpong0%
Gustav Wagner0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mohamed Cherif Haidara50%
Bubacarr Tambedou25%
Maxime Soulas17%
Marcus Bundgaard Sorensen0%
Jacob Christensen0%
Andreas Oggesen0%
Brynjar Ingi Bjarnason0%
Daníel Grétarsson0%
Dalton Wilkins0%
Sefer Emini0%
Chidiebube Duru0%
Matthew Hoppe0%
Ismaïl Seydi0%
Anders Hoeg0%
David Boison Frimpong0%
Gustav Wagner0%
AC Horsens
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan60%
Adrian Justinussen33%
Ivan Miličević17%
Kristian Kirkegaard17%
Yamirou Ouorou17%
Victor Pálsson0%
Matej Delač0%
Ole Kolskogen0%
Karlo Lusavec0%
Jimi Tauriainen0%
Alagie Saine0%
Julius Madsen0%
Adam Herdonsson0%
Julius Körkkö0%
Abdul Moro0%
Mikkel Kupijbida0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ole Kolskogen33%
Alagie Saine33%
Adam Herdonsson33%
Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan20%
Mikkel Kupijbida20%
Kristian Kirkegaard17%
Jimi Tauriainen17%
Julius Madsen17%
Abdul Moro17%
Yamirou Ouorou17%
Victor Pálsson0%
Matej Delač0%
Ivan Miličević0%
Adrian Justinussen0%
Karlo Lusavec0%
Julius Körkkö0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jimi Tauriainen33%
Kristian Kirkegaard17%
Julius Madsen17%
Yamirou Ouorou17%
Victor Pálsson0%
Matej Delač0%
Ivan Miličević0%
Adrian Justinussen0%
Ole Kolskogen0%
Karlo Lusavec0%
Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan0%
Alagie Saine0%
Adam Herdonsson0%
Julius Körkkö0%
Abdul Moro0%
Mikkel Kupijbida0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan40%
Adrian Justinussen17%
Julius Madsen17%
Victor Pálsson0%
Matej Delač0%
Ivan Miličević0%
Ole Kolskogen0%
Kristian Kirkegaard0%
Karlo Lusavec0%
Jimi Tauriainen0%
Alagie Saine0%
Adam Herdonsson0%
Julius Körkkö0%
Abdul Moro0%
Yamirou Ouorou0%
Mikkel Kupijbida0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (26)
€108m
FC (26)
€73m
BRO (29)
€48m
FN (25)
€37m
AAR (28)
€36m
SIL (23)
€19m
VIB (22)
€19m
ODE (24)
€17m
RF (24)
€14m
SON (26)
€13m
LYN (22)
€13m
AH (27)
€10m
Sonderjyske's squad is €3m more valuable than AC Horsens's (€13m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (8)
€47m
FN (8)
€18m
FC (7)
€17m
BRO (9)
€15m
AAR (10)
€14m
ODE (9)
€8m
SIL (6)
€6m
VIB (8)
€6m
RF (9)
€5m
AH (9)
€4m
SON (6)
€3m
LYN (5)
€3m
Sonderjyske and AC Horsens have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FM (8)
€24m
FC (7)
€17m
AAR (10)
€14m
BRO (5)
€11m
FN (5)
€7m
SIL (6)
€5m
LYN (8)
€5m
SON (7)
€3m
RF (5)
€3m
ODE (6)
€3m
VIB (4)
€2m
AH (6)
€2m
Sonderjyske's midfield is €1m more valuable than AC Horsens's (€3m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FC (12)
€39m
FM (10)
€37m
BRO (15)
€22m
FN (12)
€12m
VIB (10)
€11m
AAR (8)
€8m
SIL (11)
€8m
ODE (9)
€7m
SON (13)
€6m
RF (10)
€6m
LYN (9)
€5m
AH (12)
€4m
Sonderjyske's defence is €2m more valuable than AC Horsens's (€6m vs €4m).
Denmark: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Copenhagen
FC Midtjylland
Viborg
FC Nordsjaelland
Brondby
Randers FC
Odense
Silkeborg
Aarhus
Lyngby