PythiaFootballBETA
The model predicts an away win for FC Midtjylland in this Denmark: Superliga match against Sonderjyske, with a 59% chance of an FC Midtjylland victory. The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.3%.
Sonderjyske has a poor home record, scoring an average of 1.6 goals and conceding 2.2 goals when facing stronger opponents. Meanwhile, FC Midtjylland has a strong away form, scoring 2.33 goals and conceding 0.89 goals against weaker opponents.
The model's selections are Over 1.5 with a 79.6% chance of hitting. The model also suggests the Away win with a 59% probability, the Draw with a 24% probability, and the Home win with a 17% probability.
The win extends Sonderjyske's run of draws, but it was the away team, FC Midtjylland, who ultimately took the three points. The final score was 2-3 in favour of FC Midtjylland, confirming the actual result of an away win. The model's selection, an away win, was correct, given a pre-match probability of 59%. The model's call was also vindicated by the suggested picks, with the selection of Over 1.5 goals hitting, and boasting a pre-match probability of 79.6%.
Sonderjyske| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 1.40 | 1.60 | 1.27 | 1.13 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 1.44 | 1.89 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.26 | 1.16 | 1.56 | 0.78 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 2.00 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
FC Midtjylland| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.03 | 1.03 | 2.14 | 1.14 | 1.94 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 2.00 | 1.50 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.64 | 0.86 | 1.75 | 0.88 | 1.50 | 0.83 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 2.43 | 1.14 | 2.60 | 1.60 | 2.33 | 0.89 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+14pp vs league) | |||||
| FC Midtjylland goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.5% | 9.6% | 10% | 6.6% | 3.2% |
| 1 | 4.3% | 11% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% |
| 2 | 2.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| 3 | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
SonderjyskeFC MidtjyllandSonderjyske| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.8 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 22.0 | 21.6 | 22.4 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 23.7 | 24.4 | 23.1 |
| vs Similar (27) | 9.7 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 21.6 | 21.4 | 21.9 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 11.1 | 10.6 | 11.5 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 21.2 | 19.6 | 22.5 |
| % over line | 56% | 56% | 56% | 44% | 48% | 40% | 48% | 48% | 48% |
| % under line | 44% | 44% | 44% | 56% | 52% | 60% | 52% | 52% | 52% |
FC Midtjylland| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.1 | 9.5 | 10.8 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 26.5 | 28.3 | 24.6 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 10.0 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 30.0 | 27.0 | 33.0 |
| vs Similar (19) | 10.0 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 28.4 | 32.0 | 24.8 |
| vs Weaker (29) | 10.2 | 10.0 | 10.5 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 24.8 | 25.8 | 23.8 |
| % over line | 53% | 39% | 68% | 62% | 52% | 72% | 76% | 83% | 68% |
| % under line | 47% | 61% | 32% | 38% | 48% | 28% | 24% | 17% | 32% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 79.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 23/11/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 28/07/25 | A | 6-2 | |
| 20/10/24 | H | 3-2 | |
| 24/08/24 | A | 3-2 |
Sonderjyske| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 08/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 23/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 17/04/26 | A | 6-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 1-1 |
FC Midtjylland| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 04/05/26 | H | 3-3 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 23/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 20/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  FC Copenhagen | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 4.3 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 10.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 67% | 22.7 | 33% | 115 | 23 | 59 | 33 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 55% |
| 2 |  Brondby | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 1.7 | 67% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 | 67% | 5.0 | 100% | 29.7 | 100% | 54 | 18 | 11 | 25 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 51% |
| 3 | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 9.0 | 33% | 4.3 | 67% | 31.0 | 100% | 120 | 62 | 27 | 32 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 4 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 1.3 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 13.7 | 67% | 3.3 | 67% | 17.0 | 0% | 80 | 31 | 18 | 30 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 57% |
| 5 |  Viborg | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 1.2 | 25% | 25% | 0% | 13.0 | 100% | 2.5 | 25% | 27.0 | 100% | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 48% |
| 6 |  AC Horsens | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 12.0 | 75% | 3.0 | 50% | 23.8 | 75% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 |  Silkeborg | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2.0 | 50% | 25% | 25% | 10.0 | 50% | 3.2 | 75% | 19.8 | 25% | 26 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 8 |  Randers FC | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2.2 | 75% | 25% | 25% | 12.2 | 100% | 1.8 | 25% | 20.0 | 25% | 27 | 16 | 4 | 7 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 9 |  Odense | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1.5 | 25% | 25% | 0% | 13.5 | 75% | 2.5 | 25% | 23.5 | 100% | 18 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 10 |  Aarhus | 3 | 2 | 0% | 0.7 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3.0 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 11.7 | 67% | 4.0 | 67% | 32.3 | 100% | 37 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 54% |
| 11 |  Lyngby | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3.2 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 9.0 | 50% | 3.8 | 75% | 30.8 | 100% | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 12 | Sonderjyske | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2.0 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 12.0 | 67% | 2.0 | 0% | 23.7 | 100% | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 44% |