Southampton are tipped to edge Ipswich in a tightly contested Championship fixture, with the model favouring a home win. The expected goal tally sits at 2.9, but the most likely total is two, a figure that carries a 24% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.6% probability, reflecting the evenly matched nature of the sides. Southampton’s home form shows they average 1.79 goals scored and only 0.71 conceded against similar opposition, while Ipswich, on the road, averages 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded. The model assigns a 43% chance to a Southampton victory, 27% to a draw, and 30% to an Ipswich win. Suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 79.9%, Over 1.5 goals at 79.7%, Over 19.5 fouls at 77.0%, Under 5.5 cards at 74.1%, and Over 8.5 corners at 71.8%. The match is likely to see a high-card, high-corner, high-foul game, with Southampton’s recent win over Stoke and Ipswich’s two-game winning streak setting the stage for a competitive showdown.
Results analysis
Southampton’s win-run was halted as Ipswich secured a 2-2 draw, ending the home side’s streak of victories. The pre-match favourite was Southampton, the model had given it a 43 % chance, but that call proved wrong. The model’s selections were mixed: Over 2.5 cards, with a 79.9 % probability, missed; Over 1.5, at 79.7 %, hit; Over 19.5 fouls, 77.0 %, hit; Under 5.5 cards, 74.1 %, hit; and Over 8.5 corners, 71.8 %, hit. The final score of 2-2 matched the actual result, confirming the draw.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Southampton win✗ Miss
43.0%
Avg Implied 43.9% · @ 2.13
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.8%
Avg Implied 26.3% · @ 3.56
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ipswich win✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied 29.8% · @ 3.14
Edge
+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Southampton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.10
1.80
0.73
1.87
1.47
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.77
1.04
1.79
0.71
1.75
1.42
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.50
-
-
3.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ipswich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ipswich
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.03
1.93
0.64
1.38
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.45
1.45
1.75
1.00
1.29
1.71
vs Weaker (19)
1.74
0.79
2.00
0.50
1.44
1.11
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Southampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.7%
Under 1.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.4%
@ 1.69+0.1%
Under 2.5
44.6%
@ 2.09-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.0%
Under 3.5
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.3%
No
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
7.6%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.0%
0-0
6.6%
0-1
6.0%
2-2 ✓
6.0%
Southampton goals ↓
Ipswich goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
6.0%
4.7%
2.0%
0.7%
1
7.6%
13%
7.5%
3.3%
1.1%
2
7.0%
9.1%
6.0%
2.6%
0.8%
3
3.7%
4.9%
3.2%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.5%
1.9%
1.3%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Southampton goals (down), columns = Ipswich goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Coventry
2.07
Ipswich
1.83
Southampton
1.75
Millwall
1.75
Middlesbrough
1.65
Hull
1.63
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Swansea
1.39
Birmingham
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Preston
1.30
Sheffield United
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Portsmouth
1.20
Stoke
1.20
Charlton
1.15
West Brom
1.15
Leicester
1.13
Blackburn
1.13
Oxford
1.02
Sheffield Weds
0.39
Southampton is 0.08 points worse than Ipswich in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coventry
2.11
Southampton
1.75
Ipswich
1.74
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Hull
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Leicester
1.26
Swansea
1.24
Birmingham
1.24
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Oxford
0.98
Charlton
0.96
Blackburn
0.91
Sheffield Weds
0.63
Southampton is 0.01 goals better than Ipswich in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 1.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Coventry
0.98
Middlesbrough
1.02
Ipswich
1.02
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Norwich
1.22
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Stoke
1.22
Charlton
1.26
West Brom
1.26
Oxford
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Bristol City
1.28
Derby
1.28
Hull
1.35
Preston
1.35
Portsmouth
1.39
Watford
1.41
Wrexham
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
Leicester
1.48
QPR
1.59
Sheffield Weds
1.93
Southampton is 0.17 goals worse than Ipswich in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.02).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Ipswich
56%
Coventry
55%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Leicester
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Hull
45%
Sheffield Weds
45%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Oxford
40%
Southampton is 0.2 percentage points better than Ipswich in terms of average possession (56% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Southampton
For 5.9 · Against 5.2 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 10.2 · Total 20.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ipswich
For 6.2 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 14.7 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Southampton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.8
10.5
4.0
4.0
4.1
22.5
22.7
22.4
vs Stronger (3)
11.7
13.0
11.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
19.3
20.0
19.0
vs Similar (44)
10.6
10.8
10.3
4.1
4.0
4.3
22.8
22.7
22.8
vs Weaker (3)
11.0
9.0
12.0
3.3
4.0
3.0
22.3
24.0
21.5
% over line
62%
74%
52%
62%
57%
67%
54%
48%
59%
% under line
38%
26%
48%
38%
43%
33%
46%
52%
41%
This opponent (Ipswich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ipswich
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.4
9.2
4.2
4.0
4.4
23.8
23.4
24.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
9.8
10.0
9.7
4.4
4.5
4.3
23.9
23.7
24.2
vs Weaker (31)
9.7
10.6
8.9
4.1
3.7
4.5
23.8
23.3
24.2
% over line
42%
48%
36%
62%
52%
72%
64%
56%
72%
% under line
58%
52%
64%
38%
48%
28%
36%
44%
28%
This opponent (Southampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.6
Oxford
11.2
Millwall
11.0
Middlesbrough
11.0
Leicester
10.7
Portsmouth
10.7
Southampton
10.7
Stoke
10.6
Preston
10.6
Hull
10.6
Norwich
10.5
Blackburn
10.3
QPR
10.3
Sheffield Weds
10.2
Watford
10.2
Wrexham
10.2
Swansea
10.1
Birmingham
10.0
Coventry
10.0
Derby
9.9
Bristol City
9.8
Ipswich
9.8
West Brom
9.6
Charlton
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Hull
4.3
Ipswich
4.2
Swansea
4.1
Southampton
4.0
Derby
4.0
Blackburn
4.0
Portsmouth
4.0
Sheffield United
4.0
Middlesbrough
3.9
Stoke
3.9
Norwich
3.9
Coventry
3.8
Bristol City
3.8
QPR
3.8
Birmingham
3.7
Charlton
3.7
Millwall
3.6
Leicester
3.5
Wrexham
3.4
Oxford
3.4
West Brom
3.4
Preston
3.4
Sheffield Weds
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.8
Derby
22.6
Swansea
22.5
Southampton
22.5
Leicester
22.4
Birmingham
22.1
Middlesbrough
22.1
Oxford
21.9
Portsmouth
21.9
Charlton
21.8
Hull
21.7
Sheffield Weds
21.7
Sheffield United
21.6
Blackburn
21.4
Watford
21.4
QPR
21.2
Millwall
21.2
Norwich
21.1
Bristol City
21.1
West Brom
21.0
Coventry
20.9
Stoke
20.6
Preston
19.9
Wrexham
19.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.0%
Under 9.5
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
61.8%
Under 3.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
62.1%
Under 21.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Southampton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.40
0.93
0.33
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.46
0.93
0.36
0.33
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
-
-
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Ipswich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ipswich
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
1.07
0.29
0.44
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.82
0.75
0.50
0.57
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.79
0.42
1.20
0.20
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Southampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Southampton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southampton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southampton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ipswich over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ipswich over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ipswich over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Southampton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.70
0.87
0.40
1.27
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.12
0.58
0.86
0.36
1.42
0.83
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
-
-
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ipswich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ipswich
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.47
0.86
0.36
0.94
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.64
1.00
0.50
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (19)
0.95
0.37
0.80
0.30
1.11
0.44
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Southampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Southampton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southampton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southampton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ipswich over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ipswich over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ipswich over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (30)
€213m
COV (27)
€202m
SOU (32)
€195m
MID (31)
€152m
SHU (33)
€121m
LEI (28)
€118m
NOR (35)
€103m
BIR (29)
€101m
HUL (28)
€99m
MIL (32)
€99m
WAT (27)
€90m
SWA (28)
€89m
STK (27)
€79m
WRE (30)
€76m
BRC (27)
€72m
QPR (31)
€69m
WBA (25)
€60m
DER (28)
€55m
PRE (28)
€54m
BLB (30)
€40m
POR (34)
€35m
CHA (31)
€28m
OXF (36)
€28m
SHW (24)
€15m
Southampton's squad is €18m less valuable than Ipswich's (€195m vs €213m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (9)
€94m
COV (8)
€75m
SOU (10)
€68m
MID (11)
€58m
SWA (12)
€53m
NOR (11)
€48m
BIR (10)
€47m
LEI (9)
€46m
HUL (10)
€44m
STK (11)
€42m
WAT (8)
€30m
MIL (9)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
BRC (9)
€28m
SHU (10)
€27m
PRE (9)
€25m
DER (7)
€22m
WBA (10)
€21m
BLB (9)
€16m
CHA (12)
€15m
POR (12)
€14m
WRE (8)
€14m
OXF (15)
€12m
SHW (5)
€3m
Southampton's attack is €26m less valuable than Ipswich's (€68m vs €94m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SOU (7)
€55m
MID (7)
€54m
COV (7)
€53m
IPS (7)
€51m
SHU (9)
€43m
WAT (8)
€36m
MIL (9)
€34m
LEI (6)
€28m
NOR (10)
€23m
WRE (9)
€21m
HUL (7)
€20m
BRC (7)
€19m
WBA (4)
€18m
BIR (5)
€18m
QPR (6)
€16m
DER (8)
€16m
SWA (5)
€12m
BLB (9)
€10m
STK (5)
€7m
PRE (6)
€5m
OXF (4)
€5m
POR (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€4m
SHW (7)
€3m
Southampton's midfield is €4m more valuable than Ipswich's (€55m vs €51m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COV (12)
€74m
SOU (15)
€71m
IPS (14)
€68m
SHU (14)
€51m
LEI (13)
€45m
WRE (13)
€41m
MID (13)
€40m
BIR (14)
€37m
MIL (14)
€36m
HUL (11)
€35m
NOR (14)
€32m
STK (11)
€29m
QPR (14)
€24m
SWA (11)
€24m
BRC (11)
€24m
PRE (13)
€24m
WAT (11)
€24m
WBA (11)
€22m
DER (13)
€18m
POR (17)
€16m
BLB (12)
€14m
OXF (17)
€12m
CHA (14)
€10m
SHW (12)
€8m
Southampton's defence is €4m more valuable than Ipswich's (€71m vs €68m).
England: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Coventry
Millwall
Middlesbrough
Hull
Wrexham
Derby
Norwich
Birmingham
Swansea
Bristol City
Sheffield United
Preston
QPR
Watford
Stoke
Portsmouth
West Brom
Charlton
Leicester
Blackburn
Oxford
Sheffield Weds