PythiaFootballBETA
Pythia gives Southampton a 47% win probability against Middlesbrough in the England: Championship on 2026-05-12, with 27% for the draw and 26% for Middlesbrough. The model estimates around 2.8 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (25%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.6%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (79%).
Southampton finished 2-1 against Middlesbrough (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 47% home win, 27% draw and 26% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (79%).
Southampton| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.87 | 1.13 | 1.87 | 0.80 | 1.87 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 2.50 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 3.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.77 | 1.12 | 1.92 | 0.69 | 1.62 | 1.54 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
Middlesbrough| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 0.97 | 1.44 | 0.62 | 1.93 | 1.36 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.64 | 1.21 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 2.29 | 1.71 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 1.69 | 0.75 | 1.78 | 0.56 | 1.57 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
| Middlesbrough goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 8.5% | 13% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 8.0% | 9.5% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 4.4% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
SouthamptonMiddlesbroughSouthampton| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.7 | 11.1 | 10.3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 22.2 | 22.0 | 22.3 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 11.4 | 12.6 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 22.8 | 21.4 | 25.0 |
| vs Similar (42) | 10.6 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 22.0 | 22.1 | 22.0 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 62% | 76% | 48% | 58% | 52% | 64% | 54% | 48% | 60% |
| % under line | 38% | 24% | 52% | 42% | 48% | 36% | 46% | 52% | 40% |
Middlesbrough| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.1 | 12.1 | 10.1 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 21.9 | 21.8 | 21.9 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | 11.3 | 12.6 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 23.8 | 23.1 | 24.5 |
| vs Weaker (23) | 10.9 | 11.5 | 10.3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 19.6 | 20.2 | 19.0 |
| % over line | 60% | 72% | 48% | 56% | 44% | 68% | 50% | 44% | 56% |
| % under line | 40% | 28% | 52% | 44% | 56% | 32% | 50% | 56% | 44% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 78.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 04/01/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 27/09/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 29/03/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 23/09/23 | A | 2-1 |
Southampton| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 28/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 21/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 14/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 07/04/26 | A | 1-5 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 18/03/26 | H | 1-0 |
Middlesbrough| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Coventry | 46 | 95 | 61% | 2.1 | 97 | 45 | +52 | 3.1 | 83% | 63% | 37% | 9.6 | 41% | 3.7 | 48% | 20.8 | 43% | 202 | 75 | 53 | 74 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 55% |
| 2 |  Ipswich | 46 | 84 | 50% | 1.8 | 80 | 47 | +33 | 2.8 | 85% | 52% | 26% | 9.6 | 39% | 4.4 | 63% | 24.5 | 72% | 213 | 94 | 51 | 68 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 56% |
| 3 | Southampton | 48 | 84 | 48% | 1.8 | 84 | 57 | +27 | 2.9 | 85% | 62% | 33% | 10.7 | 62% | 4.1 | 62% | 22.8 | 58% | 195 | 68 | 55 | 71 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 4 |  Millwall | 48 | 84 | 50% | 1.8 | 64 | 51 | +13 | 2.4 | 79% | 46% | 21% | 11.1 | 56% | 3.6 | 46% | 21.0 | 35% | 99 | 30 | 34 | 36 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 48% |
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 49 | 81 | 45% | 1.7 | 73 | 50 | +23 | 2.5 | 67% | 53% | 29% | 11.0 | 57% | 3.8 | 55% | 21.8 | 49% | 152 | 58 | 54 | 40 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 59% |
| 6 |  Hull | 49 | 80 | 47% | 1.6 | 73 | 66 | +7 | 2.8 | 76% | 61% | 35% | 10.3 | 61% | 4.2 | 59% | 21.2 | 41% | 99 | 44 | 20 | 35 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 45% |
| 7 |  Wrexham | 46 | 71 | 41% | 1.5 | 69 | 65 | +4 | 2.9 | 83% | 50% | 33% | 9.9 | 50% | 3.4 | 50% | 19.2 | 30% | 76 | 14 | 21 | 41 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 8 |  Derby | 46 | 69 | 43% | 1.5 | 67 | 59 | +8 | 2.7 | 76% | 52% | 24% | 10.0 | 48% | 4.2 | 57% | 22.9 | 61% | 55 | 22 | 16 | 18 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 9 |  Norwich | 46 | 65 | 41% | 1.4 | 63 | 56 | +7 | 2.6 | 83% | 48% | 15% | 10.3 | 59% | 3.9 | 59% | 21.2 | 41% | 103 | 48 | 23 | 32 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 54% |
| 10 |  Birmingham | 46 | 64 | 37% | 1.4 | 57 | 56 | +1 | 2.5 | 78% | 46% | 17% | 9.9 | 50% | 3.8 | 48% | 22.1 | 48% | 101 | 47 | 18 | 37 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 54% |
| 11 |  Swansea | 46 | 64 | 39% | 1.4 | 57 | 59 | -2 | 2.5 | 76% | 50% | 20% | 9.9 | 50% | 4.1 | 63% | 22.7 | 61% | 89 | 53 | 12 | 24 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 55% |
| 12 |  Bristol City | 46 | 62 | 37% | 1.3 | 59 | 59 | +0 | 2.6 | 72% | 46% | 26% | 9.9 | 52% | 3.8 | 57% | 21.3 | 48% | 72 | 28 | 19 | 24 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 49% |
| 13 |  Sheffield United | 46 | 60 | 39% | 1.3 | 66 | 66 | +0 | 2.9 | 74% | 59% | 33% | 11.7 | 70% | 4.1 | 57% | 21.5 | 43% | 121 | 27 | 43 | 51 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 52% |
| 14 |  Preston | 46 | 60 | 33% | 1.3 | 55 | 62 | -7 | 2.5 | 80% | 48% | 24% | 10.8 | 59% | 3.4 | 48% | 19.9 | 28% | 54 | 25 | 5 | 24 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 15 |  QPR | 46 | 58 | 35% | 1.3 | 61 | 73 | -12 | 2.9 | 76% | 63% | 37% | 10.0 | 50% | 3.7 | 57% | 20.5 | 41% | 69 | 29 | 16 | 24 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 46% |
| 16 |  Watford | 46 | 57 | 30% | 1.2 | 53 | 65 | -12 | 2.6 | 80% | 48% | 24% | 10.2 | 57% | 4.5 | 57% | 21.2 | 41% | 90 | 30 | 36 | 24 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 17 |  Stoke | 46 | 55 | 33% | 1.2 | 51 | 56 | -5 | 2.3 | 70% | 43% | 20% | 10.8 | 59% | 4.0 | 43% | 20.3 | 39% | 79 | 42 | 7 | 29 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 18 |  Portsmouth | 46 | 55 | 30% | 1.2 | 49 | 64 | -15 | 2.5 | 67% | 43% | 24% | 10.7 | 65% | 4.0 | 50% | 21.8 | 57% | 35 | 14 | 5 | 16 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 19 |  West Brom | 46 | 53 | 28% | 1.2 | 48 | 58 | -10 | 2.3 | 67% | 46% | 17% | 9.1 | 43% | 3.4 | 39% | 20.8 | 41% | 60 | 21 | 18 | 22 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 52% |
| 20 |  Charlton | 46 | 53 | 28% | 1.2 | 44 | 58 | -14 | 2.2 | 67% | 39% | 15% | 9.7 | 48% | 3.6 | 48% | 21.6 | 48% | 28 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 42% |
| 21 |  Leicester | 46 | 52 | 26% | 1.1 | 58 | 68 | -10 | 2.7 | 85% | 54% | 28% | 11.1 | 63% | 3.6 | 41% | 21.7 | 50% | 118 | 46 | 28 | 45 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 22 |  Blackburn | 46 | 52 | 28% | 1.1 | 42 | 56 | -14 | 2.1 | 70% | 39% | 13% | 10.4 | 59% | 3.8 | 54% | 20.7 | 43% | 40 | 16 | 10 | 14 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 23 |  Oxford | 46 | 47 | 24% | 1.0 | 45 | 59 | -14 | 2.3 | 67% | 46% | 20% | 11.2 | 70% | 3.4 | 43% | 21.6 | 46% | 28 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 40% |
| 24 |  Sheffield Weds | 46 | 18 | 4% | 0.4 | 29 | 89 | -60 | 2.6 | 80% | 52% | 24% | 10.4 | 54% | 3.0 | 41% | 21.7 | 50% | 15 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 45% |