Southampton's recent form is concerning, having come off a defeat against Watford, but they have shown resilience with a mixed recent record. Meanwhile, Stoke is reeling from five consecutive losses, including a 1-2 defeat to Swansea. Despite this, the model still favours Southampton to win at home, with a 53% probability of a home win, 28% for a draw, and 19% for an away win.
The model predicts the most likely scoreline to be 1-1, with a 13% probability. The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with the most likely total being 2 goals. Southampton's home form is decent, scoring 1.85 goals on average and conceding 0.69, while Stoke's away form is struggling, scoring 0.45 goals and conceding 1.45.
The model's selections include a Home or Draw pick with an 88.1% probability and an 8% edge, suggesting a slight preference for a low-scoring draw. The Under 3.5 pick has a 76.8% probability and a 13% edge, while the Home or Away pick has a 75.6% probability. The Over 1.5 pick has a 71.4% probability. The home win percentage is 53%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 19%.
Results analysis
Southampton’s win over Stoke extended their recent run, with the 3-1 result confirming the model’s prediction of a home victory. The model, giving the home side a 58 % chance, was right, and the 3-goal margin matched the most likely scoreline of 1-0, 1-1 or 2-0. Every suggested pick hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.7 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.6 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.5 %, Under 6.5 at 98.8 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.7 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 97.3 %, Home +2 handicap at 96.7 % and Under 5.5 at 96.3 %. All selections were settled in favour of the model’s choices.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Southampton win✓ Hit
57.6%
Avg Implied 58.2% · @ 1.61
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.65
Dafabet
1.64
10Bet
1.63
Superbet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.62
Draw✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied 23.1% · @ 4.06
Edge
+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.29
Dafabet
4.20
BetVictor
4.20
Betano
4.20
Superbet
4.15
Stoke win✗ Miss
16.0%
Avg Implied 18.7% · @ 5.02
Edge
-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.31
Betano
5.30
BetVictor
5.25
Dafabet
5.20
Unibet
5.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Southampton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.03
1.79
0.79
1.94
1.25
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.83
1.04
1.82
0.82
1.83
1.25
vs Weaker (5)
2.20
0.80
1.50
0.50
2.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stoke
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.37
1.33
1.39
0.50
1.33
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
1.80
1.67
1.67
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.92
1.33
1.21
1.43
0.50
1.20
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Southampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.2%
@ 1.21-6.5%
Under 1.5
28.8%
@ 4.21+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Under
Unibet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.34
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.1%
@ 1.67-12.3%
Under 2.5
55.9%
@ 2.16+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.70
1xBet
1.67
888Sport
1.67
Under
Unibet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Betano
2.18
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.0%
@ 2.66-12.2%
Under 3.5
77.0%
@ 1.44+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.79
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.75
888Sport
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Under
Betfair
1.47
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Unibet
1.46
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.8%
@ 1.70-10.0%
No
55.2%
@ 2.06+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.72
888Sport
1.70
William Hil
1.70
No
Betfair
2.20
10Bet
2.10
Unibet
2.10
888Sport
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.4%@ 7.41+7.3%
1-1
12.4%@ 7.28+6.1%
2-0
12.1%@ 7.99+6.4%
0-0
9.8%@ 12.45+6.2%
2-1
9.4%@ 7.49+3.3%
3-0
6.7%@ 11.86+2.9%
0-1
5.6%@ 14.34+2.5%
3-1 ✓
5.2%@ 11.32+1.2%
Southampton goals ↓
Stoke goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
5.6%
2.6%
0.7%
0.1%
1
13%
12%
4.3%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
9.4%
3.6%
0.9%
0.2%
3
6.7%
5.2%
2.0%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.8%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Southampton goals (down), columns = Stoke goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Southampton is 0.51 points better than Stoke in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Southampton is 0.62 goals better than Stoke in terms of goals scored per game (1.73 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Southampton is 0.03 goals better than Stoke in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Southampton is 4.5 percentage points better than Stoke in terms of average possession (56% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Southampton
For 6.4 · Against 6.1 · Total 12.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 10.9 · Total 20.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stoke
For 7.0 · Against 3.1 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 10.7 · Total 21.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Southampton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.2
11.0
3.8
3.9
3.7
22.4
23.3
21.5
vs Stronger (2)
13.0
13.0
13.0
2.0
3.0
1.0
19.0
20.0
18.0
vs Similar (40)
11.2
11.3
11.2
4.1
4.1
4.1
22.8
23.9
21.8
vs Weaker (8)
9.9
10.0
9.8
2.9
3.3
2.6
21.0
20.7
21.2
% over line
67%
74%
62%
56%
52%
59%
49%
52%
46%
% under line
33%
26%
38%
44%
48%
41%
51%
48%
54%
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stoke
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.4
11.0
3.9
4.0
3.9
20.6
21.6
19.4
vs Stronger (8)
9.8
11.0
7.7
3.1
4.0
1.7
19.5
21.0
17.0
vs Similar (41)
11.0
10.5
11.5
4.1
4.0
4.2
20.7
21.6
19.8
vs Weaker (1)
6.0
6.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
25.0
25.0
-
% over line
58%
56%
61%
44%
44%
43%
42%
52%
30%
% under line
42%
44%
39%
56%
56%
57%
58%
48%
70%
This opponent (Southampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.5
Southampton
11.0
West Ham
11.0
Millwall
10.8
Middlesbrough
10.8
Portsmouth
10.8
Preston
10.7
Stoke
10.7
Cardiff
10.7
Blackburn
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Birmingham
10.3
Wrexham
10.3
Watford
10.2
QPR
10.2
Bolton
10.1
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Derby
9.9
Charlton
9.6
Wolves
9.5
Burnley
9.4
West Brom
9.3
Lincoln
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Derby
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Southampton
4.0
Stoke
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Norwich
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Wolves
3.7
QPR
3.7
Bolton
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Millwall
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
West Brom
3.4
Preston
3.4
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.3
Lincoln
22.9
Derby
22.6
Swansea
22.5
Bolton
22.4
West Ham
22.4
Southampton
22.3
Portsmouth
22.1
Birmingham
22.0
Charlton
21.6
Sheffield United
21.5
Middlesbrough
21.4
Norwich
21.3
Watford
21.2
Blackburn
21.2
Bristol City
21.1
Cardiff
20.8
QPR
20.8
Millwall
20.6
Stoke
20.6
West Brom
20.5
Burnley
20.3
Preston
20.1
Wrexham
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
65.4%
@ 1.52+4.5%
Under 9.5
34.6%
@ 2.37-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Pinnacle
1.54
Unibet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Under
1xBet
2.47
Pinnacle
2.46
Betano
2.42
Marathonbet
2.41
Unibet
2.32
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
53.1%
@ 1.42-12.5%
Under 3.5
46.9%
@ 2.70+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
Unibet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.32
Under
Pinnacle
3.03
Unibet
2.85
Superbet
2.80
Betano
2.12
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
46.6%
@ 1.83-2.2%
Under 21.5
53.4%
@ 1.74+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.83
Under
Superbet
1.74
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Southampton or Draw✓ Hit
88.1%
Avg Implied 81.1% · @ 1.16
Edge
+7.0%
58%
26%
16%
covers Southampton + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Southampton or Stoke✓ Hit
75.6%
Avg Implied 77.3% · @ 1.21
Edge
-1.8%
58%
26%
16%
covers Southampton + Stoke
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Unibet
1.23
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Draw or Stoke✗ Miss
36.3%
Avg Implied 41.5% · @ 2.26
Edge
-5.2%
58%
26%
16%
covers Draw + Stoke
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.37
William Hil
2.30
Bet365
2.30
Unibet
2.28
1xBet
2.28
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Southampton over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.0%
@ 1.10-1.2%
Under
17.0%
@ 5.88+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.13
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Under
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
5.80
Unibet
5.80
BetVictor
5.75
Southampton over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
52.9%
@ 1.61-5.1%
Under
47.1%
@ 2.22+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.63
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Bet365
2.25
Betfair
2.25
1xBet
2.24
Southampton over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
26.2%
@ 2.90-5.8%
Under
73.8%
@ 1.37+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.06
888Sport
3.00
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.91
Under
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Southampton over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.4%
@ 6.02-5.0%
Under
89.6%
@ 1.10+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
888Sport
6.50
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.95
Marathonbet
5.95
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
888Sport
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Stoke over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
47.3%
@ 1.48-15.4%
Under
52.7%
@ 2.49+15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Under
Betfair
2.60
Pinnacle
2.58
10Bet
2.55
Bet365
2.50
BetVictor
2.50
Stoke over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
13.6%
@ 3.39-14.0%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.29+14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.61
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
1xBet
3.48
BetVictor
3.40
Under
888Sport
1.30
Superbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Betano
1.29
Stoke over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 8.93-7.7%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.04+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
888Sport
10.00
1xBet
9.50
Marathonbet
9.50
Betfair
9.00
Under
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Stoke over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.4%
@ 24.12-3.6%
Under
99.6%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
888Sport
29.00
Superbet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Southampton, so a minus line means Southampton give that many goals of a start and Stoke receive them. At -1, Southampton must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Southampton win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Southampton)Actual: Draw
Southampton -2
17.7%
@ 4.97-0.4%
Draw -2
20.2%
@ 4.56+0.5%
Stoke +2
62.1%
@ 1.44-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.70
Unibet
4.70
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Superbet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Away
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.46
Unibet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Handicap -1 (Southampton)Actual: Southampton
Southampton -1
37.9%
@ 2.58+3.2%
Draw -1
25.7%
@ 3.56+0.5%
Stoke +1
36.3%
@ 2.24-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.60
Superbet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.50
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Unibet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Away
Bet365
2.30
Marathonbet
2.28
Unibet
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Betfair
2.20
Handicap +1 (Southampton)Actual: Southampton
Southampton +1
88.1%
@ 1.15+10.9%
Draw +1
8.7%
@ 6.26-5.6%
Stoke -1
3.3%
@ 10.32-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.50
Superbet
6.30
10Bet
6.25
Away
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
12.00
Unibet
10.50
10Bet
10.00
Superbet
9.90
Handicap +2 (Southampton)Actual: Southampton
Southampton +2
96.7%
@ 1.04+7.0%
Draw +2
2.6%
@ 13.33-4.4%
Stoke -2
0.6%
@ 29.00-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
14.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Betfair
41.00
Bet365
29.00
10Bet
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Southampton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.86
0.36
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.57
0.82
0.45
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stoke
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.40
0.56
0.33
0.25
0.50
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.60
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.38
0.38
0.50
0.43
0.20
0.30
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Southampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.3%
@ 1.30+0.4%
Under 0.5
27.7%
@ 3.33-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
William Hil
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
36.0%
@ 2.43-2.3%
Under 1.5
64.0%
@ 1.51+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.57
Pinnacle
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.45
1xBet
2.44
Under
10Bet
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.52
BetVictor
1.51
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.2%
@ 5.67-4.1%
Under 2.5
87.8%
@ 1.11+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.50
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
5.80
Betano
5.70
Superbet
5.65
Under
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Southampton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
60.6%
@ 1.60+2.4%
Under
39.4%
@ 2.23-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.62
Superbet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Under
Pinnacle
2.31
10Bet
2.30
Unibet
2.23
1xBet
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Southampton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
21.7%
@ 3.88-2.2%
Under
78.3%
@ 1.21+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.10
Betano
3.95
Superbet
3.85
1xBet
3.80
Unibet
3.80
Under
Betano
1.22
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Southampton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 9.83-4.6%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.03+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
10.50
Superbet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.03
Stoke over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
28.2%
@ 2.58-8.0%
Under
71.8%
@ 1.46+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.74
Betano
2.62
Marathonbet
2.55
Unibet
2.55
1xBet
2.55
Under
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.46
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Stoke over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 9.24-5.1%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.03+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
9.70
Superbet
9.00
Unibet
9.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Stoke over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 38.00-99.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
38.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Southampton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.60
0.93
0.43
1.38
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.26
0.48
1.00
0.36
1.50
0.58
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.80
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stoke
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.97
0.78
1.06
0.25
0.83
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.67
1.67
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.96
0.71
1.00
0.30
0.90
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Southampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.8%
Under 0.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
46.2%
Under 1.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.1%
Under 2.5
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Southampton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
65.7%
Under
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southampton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
29.2%
Under
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southampton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
37.8%
Under
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
97.3%
1.04
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
888Sport
1.05
+7.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
96.7%
1.04
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
888Sport
1.05
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.03
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.2%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
+9.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
89.6%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
888Sport
1.10
1xBet
1.09
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
88.1%
1.16
Superbet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
888Sport
1.17
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
88.1%
1.15
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
+10.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.8%
1.11
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
86.4%
1.29
888Sport
1.30
Superbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Betano
1.29
+14.0%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
83.0%
1.10
888Sport
1.13
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
81.2%
1.50
Unibet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.48
Superbet
1.48
-
-
+19.9%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
78.3%
1.21
Betano
1.22
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.0%
1.44
Betfair
1.47
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Unibet
1.46
+12.2%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
76.4%
1.29
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Marathonbet
1.24
+5.0%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
75.6%
1.21
888Sport
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Unibet
1.23
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
73.8%
1.37
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
+5.8%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.3%
1.30
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 0.5 HT goals
71.8%
1.46
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.46
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.45
+8.0%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
71.2%
1.21
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Superbet
1.22
-6.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Southampton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cyle Larin67%
Léo Scienza33%
Romeo Akachukwu33%
Ryan Manning20%
Tom Fellows20%
D. Mubama20%
Finn Azaz17%
J. Stephens0%
N. Wood-Gordon0%
J. Bree0%
Flynn Downes0%
Daniel Peretz0%
Lewis Dobbin0%
Samuel Edozie0%
Cameron Bragg0%
Kuryu Matsuki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ryan Manning40%
J. Bree33%
Flynn Downes33%
N. Wood-Gordon25%
Tom Fellows20%
D. Mubama20%
Cyle Larin17%
Léo Scienza17%
Cameron Bragg17%
J. Stephens0%
Daniel Peretz0%
Lewis Dobbin0%
Finn Azaz0%
Samuel Edozie0%
Kuryu Matsuki0%
Romeo Akachukwu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Finn Azaz50%
Ryan Manning40%
Léo Scienza33%
Flynn Downes17%
Cameron Bragg17%
Cyle Larin0%
J. Stephens0%
N. Wood-Gordon0%
J. Bree0%
Daniel Peretz0%
Lewis Dobbin0%
Samuel Edozie0%
Tom Fellows0%
D. Mubama0%
Kuryu Matsuki0%
Romeo Akachukwu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cyle Larin83%
Kuryu Matsuki17%
J. Stephens0%
N. Wood-Gordon0%
Ryan Manning0%
J. Bree0%
Flynn Downes0%
Daniel Peretz0%
Lewis Dobbin0%
Finn Azaz0%
Samuel Edozie0%
Tom Fellows0%
Léo Scienza0%
D. Mubama0%
Cameron Bragg0%
Romeo Akachukwu0%
Stoke
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Róbert Boženík33%
Ethan Galbraith33%
Eric Bocat20%
S. Gallagher17%
G. Hirst0%
Sorba Thomas0%
B. Johnson0%
B. Wilmot0%
Svante Ingelsson0%
Maksym Talovierov0%
V. Johansson0%
M. Manhoef0%
T. Rigo0%
Bosun Lawal0%
Luke Graham0%
Jun-Ho Bae0%
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bosun Lawal50%
Jun-Ho Bae40%
S. Gallagher33%
Svante Ingelsson33%
Maksym Talovierov33%
Ethan Galbraith33%
G. Hirst25%
Luke Graham25%
Sorba Thomas20%
B. Johnson0%
B. Wilmot0%
Róbert Boženík0%
V. Johansson0%
Eric Bocat0%
M. Manhoef0%
T. Rigo0%
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
T. Rigo25%
Sorba Thomas20%
Jun-Ho Bae20%
S. Gallagher17%
G. Hirst0%
B. Johnson0%
B. Wilmot0%
Svante Ingelsson0%
Róbert Boženík0%
Maksym Talovierov0%
Ethan Galbraith0%
V. Johansson0%
Eric Bocat0%
M. Manhoef0%
Bosun Lawal0%
Luke Graham0%
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Gallagher33%
T. Rigo25%
G. Hirst0%
Sorba Thomas0%
B. Johnson0%
B. Wilmot0%
Svante Ingelsson0%
Róbert Boženík0%
Maksym Talovierov0%
Ethan Galbraith0%
V. Johansson0%
Eric Bocat0%
M. Manhoef0%
Bosun Lawal0%
Luke Graham0%
Jun-Ho Bae0%
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Southampton's squad is €126m more valuable than Stoke's (€205m vs €79m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Southampton's attack is €37m more valuable than Stoke's (€72m vs €35m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Southampton's midfield is €42m more valuable than Stoke's (€53m vs €11m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Southampton's defence is €47m more valuable than Stoke's (€79m vs €32m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Burnley
Preston