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Southend vs Aldershot Result & Analysis

Date: 14/09/2021
Time: 19:45
Final 2-3
Southend
Southend
Vs
38%
32%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Aldershot
Aldershot
England: National League
Referee: A Quelch
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Southend win✗ Miss
37.8%
Avg Implied 46.5% · @ 1.99
Edge
-8.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.2%
Avg Implied 26.9% · @ 3.44
Edge
+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aldershot win✓ Hit
30.1%
Avg Implied 26.5% · @ 3.49
Edge
+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SouthendSouthend

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L21W21W11D10W01L00D22D13LA·EXE17/04A·COL20/04H·LEY24/04A·BAR01/05H·NEW08/05A·KIN21/08H·STO28/08A·WEA30/08H·WRE04/09A·HAL11/09← League TwoNational League →
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.030.501.140.750.94
vs Stronger (18)0.391.170.501.080.171.33
vs Similar (12)1.000.830.501.501.100.70
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W13L13L23L44D02L01L12L23L12LH·YEO11/05H·HAR15/05H·EAS18/05H·BRO22/05A·KIN29/05H·CHE21/08A·BOR28/08H·YEO30/08A·NOT04/09H·SOL11/09
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.631.441.691.361.57
vs Stronger (20)1.551.651.441.781.641.55
vs Similar (10)1.101.601.431.570.331.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%022%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.5%
Under 1.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.2%
@ 1.93-12.5%
Under 2.5
63.8%
@ 1.83+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
17.0%
Under 3.5
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.4%
No
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
13.1%
1-0
12.1%
0-1
10.3%
2-0
7.7%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
5.8%
Southend goals ↓
Aldershot goals →
01234
013%10%5.8%1.9%0.5%
112%15%6.7%2.2%0.6%
27.7%7.7%3.8%1.3%0.3%
33.0%2.9%1.5%0.5%0.1%
40.8%0.8%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Southend goals (down), columns = Aldershot goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stockport
2.14
Wrexham
2.00
Solihull
1.98
Halifax
1.91
Notts County
1.86
Grimsby
1.75
Chesterfield
1.68
Dag and Red
1.66
Bromley
1.52
Boreham Wood
1.52
Torquay
1.50
Yeovil
1.34
Southend
1.32
Altrincham
1.25
Woking
1.20
Wealdstone
1.20
Maidenhead
1.16
Barnet
1.14
Eastleigh
1.05
Aldershot
0.98
King’s Lynn
0.77
Weymouth
0.64
Dover Athletic
0.30
Southend is 0.34 points better than Aldershot in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 0.98).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Wrexham
2.07
Stockport
1.98
Solihull
1.89
Notts County
1.84
Dag and Red
1.82
Chesterfield
1.57
Grimsby
1.55
Torquay
1.50
Halifax
1.41
Altrincham
1.41
Bromley
1.39
Woking
1.34
Barnet
1.34
Eastleigh
1.18
Wealdstone
1.16
Boreham Wood
1.11
Maidenhead
1.09
King’s Lynn
1.07
Aldershot
1.05
Southend
1.02
Yeovil
0.98
Weymouth
0.91
Dover Athletic
0.84
Southend is 0.02 goals worse than Aldershot in terms of goals scored per game (1.02 vs 1.05).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Halifax
0.80
Stockport
0.86
Boreham Wood
0.91
Solihull
1.02
Grimsby
1.05
Wrexham
1.05
Yeovil
1.05
Chesterfield
1.16
Notts County
1.18
Bromley
1.20
Dag and Red
1.20
Torquay
1.23
Woking
1.39
Southend
1.39
Wealdstone
1.48
Maidenhead
1.52
Altrincham
1.57
Aldershot
1.66
Eastleigh
1.68
King’s Lynn
1.80
Weymouth
2.00
Barnet
2.02
Dover Athletic
2.30
Southend is 0.27 goals better than Aldershot in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.66).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SouthendSouthend

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L11D11D10W10W01L00D10W01LA·EXE17/04A·COL20/04H·LEY24/04A·BAR01/05H·NEW08/05A·KIN21/08H·STO28/08A·WEA30/08H·WRE04/09A·HAL11/09← League TwoNational League →
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.470.360.430.250.50
vs Stronger (18)0.220.610.330.420.001.00
vs Similar (12)0.420.250.500.500.400.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AldershotAldershot

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L01L21W00D00D01L11D11DH·YEO11/05H·HAR15/05H·EAS18/05H·BRO22/05A·KIN29/05H·CHE21/08A·BOR28/08H·YEO30/08A·NOT04/09H·SOL11/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.600.310.560.860.64
vs Stronger (20)0.650.500.220.441.000.55
vs Similar (10)0.400.800.430.710.331.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Southend over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SouthendSouthend

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D10W10W01L00D00D00D12L12LA·EXE17/04A·COL20/04H·LEY24/04A·BAR01/05H·NEW08/05A·KIN21/08H·STO28/08A·WEA30/08H·WRE04/09A·HAL11/09← League TwoNational League →
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.570.140.710.500.44
vs Stronger (18)0.170.560.170.670.170.33
vs Similar (12)0.580.580.001.000.700.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AldershotAldershot

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W13L12L22D23L02L01L11D12L01LH·YEO11/05H·HAR15/05H·EAS18/05H·BRO22/05A·KIN29/05H·CHE21/08A·BOR28/08H·YEO30/08A·NOT04/09H·SOL11/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.031.121.120.500.93
vs Stronger (20)0.901.151.221.330.641.00
vs Similar (10)0.700.801.000.860.000.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Southend over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards89.3%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.583.0%-------✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards77.8%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
STO (25)
€10m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
Southend and Aldershot have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
STO (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
GRI (8)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Southend and Aldershot have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
STO (6)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Southend and Aldershot have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
STO (11)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
Southend and Aldershot have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
SOU wins
0
Draws
0
ALD wins

Head-to-head

Southend vs Aldershot · H/A from SOU
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

SouthendSouthend

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/09/21AHalifax Vs SOU3-1
04/09/21HSOU Vs Wrexham2-2
30/08/21AWealdstone Vs SOU0-0
28/08/21HSOU Vs Stockport0-1
21/08/21AKing’s Lynn Vs SOU0-1
08/05/21HSOU Vs Newport County1-1
01/05/21ABarrow Vs SOU1-2
24/04/21HSOU Vs Leyton Orient2-1
20/04/21AColchester Vs SOU2-0
17/04/21AExeter Vs SOU0-0

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/09/21HALD Vs Solihull1-2
04/09/21ANotts County Vs ALD3-2
30/08/21HALD Vs Yeovil1-2
28/08/21ABoreham Wood Vs ALD1-0
21/08/21HALD Vs Chesterfield0-2
29/05/21AKing’s Lynn Vs ALD4-4
22/05/21HALD Vs Bromley2-3
18/05/21HALD Vs Eastleigh1-3
15/05/21HALD Vs Hartlepool1-3
11/05/21HALD Vs Yeovil2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Southend
Southend
England: National League
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDDL1.00
HomeDWDLD0.92
AwayLWWDL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%21%23%
AVG goals1.861.921.81
Over 1.5 %58%58%58%
Over 2.5 %30%33%27%
Over 3.5 %14%17%12%
Scored0.660.750.58
Conceded1.201.171.23
BTTS34%38%31%
Clean Sheet34%29%38%
Corners9.029.098.96
Cards3.242.883.58
Aldershot
Aldershot
England: National League
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.15
HomeLLLLL1.12
AwayLLDLL1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%33%33%
AVG goals3.002.963.04
Over 1.5 %77%88%67%
Over 2.5 %62%67%58%
Over 3.5 %33%29%38%
Scored1.421.331.50
Conceded1.581.621.54
BTTS54%62%46%
Clean Sheet27%25%29%
Corners---
Cards3.563.713.42

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StockportStockport4494
68%
2.1
8738+49
2.8
75%
61%
25%
-
0%
3.6
50%
-
0%
10
3342.00.9
-
2WrexhamWrexham4488
59%
2.0
9146+45
3.1
80%
52%
34%
-
0%
3.2
39%
-
0%
77
1523392.11.0
-
3SolihullSolihull4487
57%
2.0
8345+38
2.9
77%
55%
34%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
4HalifaxHalifax4484
57%
1.9
6235+27
2.2
66%
34%
20%
-
0%
3.3
45%
-
0%
0
0001.40.8
-
5Notts CountyNotts County4482
55%
1.9
8152+29
3.0
82%
52%
34%
-
0%
4.3
61%
-
0%
6
2221.81.2
-
6GrimsbyGrimsby4477
52%
1.8
6846+22
2.6
64%
48%
30%
-
0%
3.0
45%
-
0%
4
1021.51.0
-
7ChesterfieldChesterfield4474
45%
1.7
6951+18
2.7
75%
45%
39%
-
0%
3.7
45%
-
0%
6
3121.61.2
-
8
DA
Dag and Red		4473
50%
1.7
8053+27
3.0
80%
61%
32%
-
0%
2.9
41%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
9Boreham WoodBoreham Wood4467
41%
1.5
4940+9
2.0
61%
30%
16%
-
0%
3.1
32%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
10BromleyBromley4467
41%
1.5
6153+8
2.6
75%
43%
27%
-
0%
3.4
48%
-
0%
4
1121.41.2
-
11
T
Torquay		4466
41%
1.5
6654+12
2.7
80%
55%
30%
-
0%
3.4
50%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
12YeovilYeovil4459
34%
1.3
4346-3
2.0
70%
39%
7%
-
0%
4.3
66%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
13SouthendSouthend4458
36%
1.3
4561-16
2.4
68%
41%
23%
-
0%
3.7
48%
-
0%
1
0001.01.4
-
14AltrinchamAltrincham4455
34%
1.2
6269-7
3.0
80%
52%
39%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
15WokingWoking4453
36%
1.2
5961-2
2.7
73%
48%
32%
-
0%
4.3
57%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
16WealdstoneWealdstone4453
32%
1.2
5165-14
2.6
70%
52%
30%
-
0%
3.4
48%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
17
M
Maidenhead		4451
30%
1.2
4867-19
2.6
73%
45%
32%
-
0%
3.2
32%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
18BarnetBarnet4450
30%
1.1
5989-30
3.4
84%
64%
41%
-
0%
3.5
48%
-
0%
4
0131.32.0
-
19EastleighEastleigh4446
27%
1.0
5274-22
2.9
73%
50%
30%
-
0%
3.9
59%
-
0%
1
0001.21.7
-
20AldershotAldershot4443
25%
1.0
4673-27
2.7
77%
52%
32%
-
0%
4.2
61%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
21
KL
King’s Lynn		4434
18%
0.8
4779-32
2.9
70%
52%
32%
-
0%
3.4
45%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
22
W
Weymouth		4428
14%
0.6
4088-48
2.9
80%
50%
32%
-
0%
2.7
41%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
23
DA
Dover Athletic		4413
5%
0.3
37101-64
3.1
73%
59%
39%
-
0%
3.2
48%
-
0%
0
0000.82.3
-
England: National League 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

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