PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Southend vs Aldershot Result & Analysis

Date: 24/02/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 4-1
Southend
Southend
Vs
50%
26%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Aldershot
Aldershot
England: National League
Referee: D Richardson
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Southend win✓ Hit
49.8%
Avg Implied 51.2% · @ 1.80
Edge
-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied 25.0% · @ 3.68
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aldershot win✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied 23.8% · @ 3.88
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SouthendSouthend

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W02L01L30W10W03L01L01L00D21WA·KID23/12H·BAR26/12A·BAR30/12H·HAL06/01A·EAS13/01A·CHE27/01H·GAT03/02H·YOR10/02A·OXF17/02A·MAI20/02
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.131.790.930.941.31
vs Stronger (13)1.151.461.331.331.001.57
vs Similar (16)1.500.882.120.620.881.12
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D32W24L11D31W33D21W05L20W10WH·WOK26/12A·WOK01/01A·KID20/01H·BRO23/01H·ROC27/01A·WEA30/01A·HAL03/02H·FYL13/02H·ALT17/02H·BAR20/02
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.731.811.501.642.00
vs Stronger (19)1.741.841.821.641.622.12
vs Similar (11)1.731.551.801.201.671.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.4%
Under 1.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.5%
@ 1.69+1.4%
Under 2.5
43.5%
@ 2.08-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.1%
Under 3.5
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.6%
No
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
2-1
9.7%
1-0
8.1%
2-0
8.1%
1-2
6.5%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
5.7%
3-1
5.7%
Southend goals ↓
Aldershot goals →
01234
06.3%5.1%3.7%1.5%0.4%
18.1%12%6.5%2.6%0.8%
28.1%9.7%5.7%2.3%0.7%
34.8%5.7%3.4%1.3%0.4%
42.1%2.5%1.5%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Southend goals (down), columns = Aldershot goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Chesterfield
2.13
Barnet
1.87
Bromley
1.76
Altrincham
1.67
Solihull
1.65
Gateshead
1.63
Southend
1.63
Halifax
1.54
Aldershot
1.50
Oldham
1.37
Rochdale
1.35
Hartlepool
1.30
Eastleigh
1.28
Maidenhead
1.26
Dag and Red
1.22
Wealdstone
1.22
Woking
1.20
Fylde
1.20
Ebbsfleet
1.17
York
1.15
Boreham Wood
1.13
Kidderminster
1.00
Dorking
0.98
Oxford City
0.72
Southend is 0.13 points better than Aldershot in terms of average points per game (1.63 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Chesterfield
2.30
Barnet
1.98
Gateshead
1.91
Altrincham
1.83
Aldershot
1.61
Fylde
1.61
Bromley
1.59
Eastleigh
1.59
Solihull
1.54
Southend
1.52
Hartlepool
1.52
Dag and Red
1.50
Rochdale
1.50
Oldham
1.37
Maidenhead
1.30
Wealdstone
1.30
Boreham Wood
1.28
Ebbsfleet
1.28
Halifax
1.26
York
1.20
Dorking
1.17
Oxford City
1.17
Woking
1.07
Kidderminster
0.87
Southend is 0.09 goals worse than Aldershot in terms of goals scored per game (1.52 vs 1.61).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Southend
0.98
Bromley
1.07
Halifax
1.09
Woking
1.20
Altrincham
1.28
Kidderminster
1.28
Oldham
1.30
Barnet
1.30
Solihull
1.35
Dag and Red
1.37
Gateshead
1.39
Rochdale
1.39
Chesterfield
1.41
Maidenhead
1.46
York
1.50
Wealdstone
1.57
Boreham Wood
1.59
Ebbsfleet
1.61
Hartlepool
1.78
Fylde
1.78
Aldershot
1.80
Dorking
1.85
Eastleigh
1.89
Oxford City
2.04
Southend is 0.83 goals better than Aldershot in terms of goals conceded per game (0.98 vs 1.80).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Gateshead
61%
Chesterfield
60%
Barnet
57%
Southend
56%
Wealdstone
55%
Rochdale
55%
Dorking
53%
Ebbsfleet
52%
Altrincham
52%
Hartlepool
50%
Aldershot
50%
Woking
49%
Solihull
48%
Oxford City
48%
Halifax
48%
Fylde
47%
Oldham
46%
Kidderminster
46%
York
45%
Eastleigh
44%
Bromley
43%
Boreham Wood
43%
Maidenhead
42%
Southend is 5.7 percentage points better than Aldershot in terms of average possession (56% vs 50%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SouthendSouthend

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L00D10W00D01L00D00D00D11DA·KID23/12H·BAR26/12A·BAR30/12H·HAL06/01A·EAS13/01A·CHE27/01H·GAT03/02H·YOR10/02A·OXF17/02A·MAI20/02
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.500.640.360.440.62
vs Stronger (13)0.380.690.000.670.710.71
vs Similar (16)0.690.311.120.120.250.50
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AldershotAldershot

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D21W22D10W21W22D01L03L20W00DH·WOK26/12A·WOK01/01A·KID20/01H·BRO23/01H·ROC27/01A·WEA30/01A·HAL03/02H·FYL13/02H·ALT17/02H·BAR20/02
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.830.750.690.641.00
vs Stronger (19)0.740.840.820.730.621.00
vs Similar (11)0.640.820.600.600.671.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Southend over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SouthendSouthend

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L01L20W10W02L01L01L00D10WA·KID23/12H·BAR26/12A·BAR30/12H·HAL06/01A·EAS13/01A·CHE27/01H·GAT03/02H·YOR10/02A·OXF17/02A·MAI20/02
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.631.140.570.500.69
vs Stronger (13)0.770.771.330.670.290.86
vs Similar (16)0.810.561.000.500.620.62
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AldershotAldershot

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D02L01L10W11D20W02L00D10WH·WOK26/12A·WOK01/01A·KID20/01H·BRO23/01H·ROC27/01A·WEA30/01A·HAL03/02H·FYL13/02H·ALT17/02H·BAR20/02
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.901.060.811.001.00
vs Stronger (19)1.001.001.000.911.001.12
vs Similar (11)1.090.731.200.601.000.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Southend over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards93.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards83.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.580.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
OLD (21)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
Southend and Aldershot have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
OLD (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Southend and Aldershot have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
SOU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Southend and Aldershot have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (9)
€3m
CHE (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
Southend and Aldershot have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
0
SOU wins
2
Draws
3
ALD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Southend vs Aldershot · H/A from SOU
DateH/AGameScore
26/09/23AAldershot Vs SOU1-1
18/03/23HSOU Vs Aldershot1-2
26/11/22AAldershot Vs SOU2-0
25/01/22AAldershot Vs SOU1-1
14/09/21HSOU Vs Aldershot2-3

SouthendSouthend

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/02/24AMaidenhead Vs SOU1-2
17/02/24AOxford City Vs SOU0-0
10/02/24HSOU Vs York0-1
03/02/24HSOU Vs Gateshead0-1
27/01/24AChesterfield Vs SOU3-0
13/01/24AEastleigh Vs SOU0-1
06/01/24HSOU Vs Halifax3-0
30/12/23ABarnet Vs SOU1-0
26/12/23HSOU Vs Barnet0-2
23/12/23AKidderminster Vs SOU1-2

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/02/24HALD Vs Barnet1-0
17/02/24HALD Vs Altrincham2-0
13/02/24HALD Vs Fylde0-5
03/02/24AHalifax Vs ALD1-2
30/01/24AWealdstone Vs ALD3-3
27/01/24HALD Vs Rochdale3-1
23/01/24HALD Vs Bromley1-1
20/01/24AKidderminster Vs ALD4-2
01/01/24AWoking Vs ALD2-3
26/12/23HALD Vs Woking0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Southend
Southend
England: National League
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDW1.46
HomeLLWLL1.83
AwayLWLDW1.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%61%30%
AVG goals2.382.612.19
Over 1.5 %78%83%74%
Over 2.5 %46%57%37%
Over 3.5 %12%13%11%
Scored1.301.740.93
Conceded1.080.871.26
BTTS42%39%44%
Clean Sheet30%43%19%
Corners---
Cards3.623.303.89
Aldershot
Aldershot
England: National League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWW1.46
HomeDWLWW1.73
AwayLWLDW1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%46%33%
AVG goals3.443.353.54
Over 1.5 %88%85%92%
Over 2.5 %60%46%75%
Over 3.5 %38%38%38%
Scored1.661.851.46
Conceded1.781.502.08
BTTS74%73%75%
Clean Sheet18%23%12%
Corners---
Cards4.184.503.83

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ChesterfieldChesterfield4698
67%
2.1
10665+41
3.7
91%
74%
52%
-
0%
4.0
48%
-
0%
6
3122.31.4
60%
2BarnetBarnet4686
57%
1.9
9160+31
3.3
87%
57%
39%
-
0%
4.2
65%
-
0%
4
0132.01.3
57%
3BromleyBromley4681
48%
1.8
7349+24
2.7
76%
48%
30%
-
0%
3.6
41%
-
0%
4
1121.61.1
43%
4AltrinchamAltrincham4677
48%
1.7
8459+25
3.1
80%
65%
37%
-
0%
3.7
50%
-
0%
0
0001.81.3
52%
5SolihullSolihull4676
46%
1.7
7162+9
2.9
85%
57%
24%
-
0%
4.0
54%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
48%
6SouthendSouthend4675
46%
1.6
7045+25
2.5
85%
48%
13%
-
0%
3.3
39%
-
0%
1
0001.51.0
56%
7GatesheadGateshead4675
48%
1.6
8864+24
3.3
87%
63%
41%
-
0%
4.0
57%
-
0%
0
0001.91.4
61%
8HalifaxHalifax4671
41%
1.5
5850+8
2.3
74%
43%
20%
-
0%
4.2
52%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
48%
9AldershotAldershot4669
43%
1.5
7483-9
3.4
85%
61%
39%
-
0%
4.5
63%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
50%
10OldhamOldham4663
33%
1.4
6360+3
2.7
78%
50%
33%
-
0%
3.9
52%
-
0%
3
1111.41.3
46%
11RochdaleRochdale4662
35%
1.3
6964+5
2.9
83%
59%
33%
-
0%
4.0
52%
-
0%
2
1111.51.4
55%
12HartlepoolHartlepool4660
37%
1.3
7082-12
3.3
85%
63%
41%
-
0%
3.6
48%
-
0%
1
0001.51.8
50%
13EastleighEastleigh4659
35%
1.3
7387-14
3.5
80%
65%
41%
-
0%
4.1
52%
-
0%
1
0001.61.9
44%
14
M
Maidenhead		4658
33%
1.3
6067-7
2.8
70%
52%
39%
-
0%
4.1
61%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
42%
15
DA
Dag and Red		4656
30%
1.2
6963+6
2.9
74%
50%
33%
-
0%
3.7
54%
-
0%
0
0001.51.4
-
16WealdstoneWealdstone4656
33%
1.2
6072-12
2.9
74%
48%
33%
-
0%
4.0
50%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
55%
17WokingWoking4655
33%
1.2
4955-6
2.3
65%
37%
17%
-
0%
4.2
54%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
49%
18
F
Fylde		4655
33%
1.2
7482-8
3.4
96%
74%
43%
-
0%
3.8
57%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
47%
19
E
Ebbsfleet		4654
30%
1.2
5974-15
2.9
76%
50%
33%
-
0%
4.5
61%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
52%
20YorkYork4653
26%
1.2
5569-14
2.7
83%
46%
30%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
1
0011.21.5
45%
21Boreham WoodBoreham Wood4652
26%
1.1
5973-14
2.9
80%
57%
33%
-
0%
3.5
39%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
43%
22
K
Kidderminster		4646
24%
1.0
4059-19
2.2
63%
41%
15%
-
0%
3.7
48%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
46%
23
D
Dorking		4645
26%
1.0
5485-31
3.0
78%
59%
33%
-
0%
3.9
63%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
53%
24
OC
Oxford City		4633
17%
0.7
5494-40
3.2
83%
65%
43%
-
0%
3.4
41%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
48%
England: National League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

← all matches